China is doing the right thing rejecting requests from trading
partners to adjust its currency regime, according to financial
officials and economists attending the Beijing Forex Conference
2005 on Friday.
"China does not operate a competitive currency policy and its
foreign exchange policy is transparent and consistent," said
Desmond Supple, head of Asia research at Barclays Capital, the
investment banking division of UK-based Barclays Bank PLC.
He dismissed accusations that China has taken advantage of a
cheap renminbi to become more competitive in trade.
He told the conference that the Chinese Government's refusal to
change its forex regime can be viewed as simply wanting to maintain
the consistency of its currency just as it did during the 1997
Asian financial crisis.
He added: "Any change of the renminbi regime has to go with the
advancing process of China's financial reform."
His words were echoed by Long Yongtu, secretary-general of the
Boao Forum for Asia.
"China's banking system reform is the premise of any economic
reform," said Long.
He said that foreign trade was not the only engine for China's
economic growth. Economic reform, domestic consumption, and foreign
trade and investment are the major driving forces of China's
economic growth, he said.
Long added that to liberalize the capital account, China must
have a mature banking system, strong central bank supervision and a
developed secondary financing market.
"It is unlikely China would change its forex regime in the
foreseeable future," Long said. "The country has to strike a
balance between a more flexible forex regime and a largely stable
one."
Supple said the strong inflow of foreign speculative capital is
also making it less possible for the Chinese Government to adjust
its forex regime this year.
"We see no evidence of any slowdown (of speculative capital
inflow) in the first quarter of this year," Supple said.
He added that China's forex reform requires the Chinese
Government be confident that the country has achieved a soft
landing from the 2002-04 investment boom and that the current
problem of speculative capital inflow has been contained.
However, the US Senate on Wednesday threatened to impose a
punitive tariff of 27.5 per cent on imports from China, if the
government does not adjust its forex regime within six months.
Advocates of the policy said the renminbi is undervalued, which has
disadvantaged US manufacturers and caused the large US trade
deficit with China.
(China Daily April 9, 2005)