China's economy is facing heightened overheating signs, as
outstanding bank loans surged 15.97 percent year on year by the end
of May amid a seemingly unabated investment binge, a news report
said Friday.
Chinese banks extended 209.4 billion yuan (US$26.1 billion)
worth of local currency loans in May alone, nearly double that of
the same month last year, the Xinhua-run Shanghai Securities
News reported. The "big four" state banks accounted for half
of the new loans.
In the first five months alone, newly-added loans reached 2.12
trillion yuan, already nudging the annual target of 2.5 trillion
yuan set by the central bank.
Broad money supply jumped 19.5 percent in May.
The newspaper said it obtained the figures from insiders. The
government's announcement is set to come out later this month.
The government has accelerated efforts to rein in excessive
spending in real estate, roads, factory equipment and other fixed
assets this year to cool the economy, which, largely driven by
investment, has been growing at roughly 10 percent in each of the
past three years.
On April 28, the People's Bank of China raised the minimum rate
commercial banks charge on one-year loans in local currency, the
yuan, 27 basis points, to 5.85 percent in an aggressive move to
discourage lending. It was the first increase since October
2004.
The central bank, however, left interest rates on deposits
unchanged as, theoretically, increased interest paid on deposits
could encourage savings and dampen spending enthusiasm at a time
when China is hoping its consumers will contribute more to economic
expansion.
In the meantime, the central bank required domestic commercial
banks buy multi-billion-yuan bills it issued in most weeks in a bid
to further restrain their lending capacities.
However the new figures show China's latest round of the
macro-control -- which also include a recent campaign by nine
ministries under the State Council, or the Cabinet, to cool down
the heated real estate market, by lifting the down payment
requirement for house purchases -- had very limited effects,
economists and government officials acknowledge.
Chinese banks may issue as much as 3 trillion yuan worth of
loans in 2006, they agree.
As big Chinese banks are rushing to go public and improve
business prior to fully opening the country's financial market to
foreign rivals by the end of this year under a WTO commitment, they
increasingly focus on loan profits.
China Construction Bank, which took the lead among the "big
four" state banks to list its shares last October, has seen a much
bigger lending size than the three others so far this year.
China targets an 8 percent growth rate for the full year, but
the world's fastest-growing major economy expanded a revised 10.3
percent in the first quarter.
Zhou Xiaochuan, China's central bank chief, told a recent
seminar in Beijing that another rise of interest rates is not on
the agenda. He said as financial data for May are not yet
available, it's not known whether the April loan rate hike has had
its desired effect.
A rate hike cannot have immediate effects as China's immature
market lags behind in response, said Zhao Xijun, an economic
professor with the Beijing-based Renmin University of China.
Instead, many economists say the government might use mixed
tools, including administrative and exchange rate measures, to cool
down the roaring economy. Commercial banks are also urged to raise
their required reserves at the central bank as a way of reducing
the money that otherwise can be lent.
But Zhao said he believes a stepped-up economic expansion is
actually in need of greater financial support.
"We cannot limit (loan growth) in accordance with the data seen
in previous years," he told Xinhua.
(Xinhua News Agency June 9, 2006)