China's economy surged a year-on-year 10.9 percent in the first
half of 2006, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed
Tuesday, roaring ahead despite a slew of measures imposed by the
government to ease the blistering growth of investment.
Total gross domestic product between January and June reached
9.14 trillion yuan (US$1.14 trillion), NBS spokesman Zheng Jingping
told a press conference in Beijing Tuesday morning.
Growth stood at 11.3 percent for the second quarter alone.
A number of economists, in interviews with Xinhua, acknowledged
the growth was alarmingly high, but Zheng played it down, saying
such high rates were also reported in previous years.
"As for the current economic situation, generally speaking, we
believe that it is fairly sound, and also fairly fast," he
said.
Inflation remained moderate, with the key consumer price index
(CPI) rising only 1.3 percent from a year earlier. "The CPI was
running at a fairly low level," Zheng said.
But Zheng warned of high producer prices, a harbinger that would
put pressure on a CPI rise. He said excessive growth of investment
would also ignite inflation.
China's macro-economy presents "obvious overheating of
investment" in the first half of this year, Wang Xiaoguang, a
macroeconomics professor at the economic research institute of the
National Development and Reform Commission, told Xinhua.
Total investment in roads, factory equipment and other fixed
assets soared 29.8 percent, an increase of 4.4 percentage points
from the same period of last year.
"The overheating is all-round, in nearly all industries and all
regions of the country," Wang said, urging the government to move
to control the trend.
Tao Dong, an economist with Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, echoed
his remarks, acknowledging the rebound in investment in fixed
assets is a "problem" in China's economy.
Frank Gong, an economist with JP Morgan in Hong Kong, blamed the
overheated investment on excessive money supply brought by soaring
foreign exchange reserves.
Under China's currency controls, the central bank has to buy a
big part of foreign currency earnings by enterprises, which has
already helped China build up the world's biggest foreign exchange
reserves, reaching an equivalent of 941.1 billion U.S. dollars at
the end of June, while ballooning money supply.
Gong said he believes the fundamental solution (to overheated
money supply and investment) is to accelerate the appreciation of
the renminbi, which, theoretically, will reduce the money unleashed
by the central bank in buying foreign exchanges.
Tao said one of the measures, which should be taken to contain
the overheating economy, is to raise the interest rates by a big
enough margin, as a way of squeezing the lending capacities of
commercial banks. China hiked the rates moderately by 27 base
points in April.
Asked by a reporter on whether China would immediately jack up
the interest rates again, the NBS spokesman said the central bank
would make a correct judgment in line with relevant
information.
A series of austerity measures taken by the government,
including an increase of down payment requirement for house
purchases, have worked in the second quarter, and their effects
could be felt later, he said.
Bank loans issued in June, for instance, were 60.7 billion yuan
less than the same period of last year, the central bank said
earlier.
The NBS figures showed that from January to June, China's
exports amounted to 428.6 billion U.S. dollars, up 25.2 percent
year on year, or 7.5 percentage points lower than the same period
of 2005.
The country's import value stood at 367.1 billion dollars, an
increase of 21.3 percent, or 7.3 percentage points higher than the
January-June period of last year. Trade surplus was 61.4 billion
dollars.
Zheng did not provide China's surplus with the United States.
American manufactures are contending that China's currency was made
artificially lower, making Chinese exports cheaper.
Materialized foreign investment fell a slight 0.5 percent. Zheng
said the figure keeps "basically the same level" with a year
ago.
The spokesman called investment-driven growth pattern
"unsustainable". He said economic growth is ultimately intended to
improve the people's livelihood and increase consumption.
In the first half, total retail sales reached 3.64 trillion
yuan, a rise of 13.3 percent, the NBS figures show.
(Xinhua News Agency July 18, 2006)