People visit the Intelligent Industry and Information Technology exhibition area at the 7th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, Nov. 9, 2024. [Photo/Xinhua]

With President-elect Donald Trump threatening to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods when he takes office on Jan. 20, experts from Tsinghua University have underscored China's economic resilience and that decoupling is self-defeating during an exclusive interview with China.org.cn.

Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Institute for Development Planning at Tsinghua University, highlighted China's distinctive strengths in weathering external risks. "China's comprehensive industrial chain gives us a resilience that no other country possesses," he said. Alongside its globally recognized product quality, these strengths have secured China's competitive edge in the international arena.

In particular, a raft of incremental policies deployed in late September have effectively boosted social confidence and driven a remarkable rebound in the economy, it was noted recently at the annual Central Economic Work Conference.

On the issue of overcapacity in certain industries, Dong dismissed criticism as overlooking the significant demand from global markets. He pointed to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner countries, where Chinese exports are not only driving economic growth but also improving local livelihoods. "China's approach is not about monopolizing markets; it's about fostering mutual benefit," he explained. 

Domestically, China is reinforcing its economic robustness by boosting the dynamism of its domestic economy and building a unified national market. "Effective efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and upgrade regional industries and consumption," Dong said. 

Despite rhetoric about decoupling, Dong stressed the complementary nature of Sino-U.S. economic relations. According to China's General Administration of Customs, bilateral trade between the two nations reached 4.44 trillion yuan (around $612 billion) in the first 11 months of 2024 in yuan-denominated terms, a 4.2% increase year on year. "China and the U.S. are among each other's largest markets," Dong noted, cautioning that full decoupling would impose unsustainable costs on American consumers due to the significant reliance of American households on affordable goods imported from China. 

While acknowledging competition in certain areas, Dong advocated for pragmatic collaboration in fields such as innovation, green development, global poverty reduction, risk management and cultural exchanges. He placed particular emphasis on technological cooperation, noting that open sharing of technological advancements can accelerate their application and enhance global progress. "Technological isolation only slows innovation and delays improvements in human welfare," he said. 

Ju Jiandong, chair professor at Tsinghua's PBC School of Finance, also emphasized the importance of maintaining stable economic growth in a turbulent international environment. "Amid international uncertainties, we aim to maintain a healthy GDP growth rate," Ju said. This sentiment echoed the Central Economic Work Conference's emphasis on maintaining steady economic growth and keeping employment and prices generally stable in the coming year.

Ju addressed the implications of potential U.S. tariffs, noting that such measures would primarily burden American consumers with higher prices. He warned that aggressive decoupling efforts could ultimately harm the U.S. manufacturing sector rather than achieve their intended goals. "To de-Sinicize is to de-Americanize," he said.

Ju also pointed to China's vast market in the developing world as a key advantage. With exports to developing countries accounting for up to 60% of China's total exports, maintaining market share in these regions is vital. He further emphasized structural reforms — particularly advancements in green energy and electric vehicles, where China leads globally — as crucial drivers of China's economy.

Recognizing the opportunities and challenges of Sino-U.S. relations, Ju called for deeper economic and financial collaboration. He proposed further opening China's capital markets to foster international partnerships and to ensure that global stakeholders can benefit from China's economic growth. Such measures, he argued, would make the idea of decoupling economically infeasible for the U.S.

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