An aerial drone photo shows the container terminal at Lianyungang Port in eastern China's Jiangsu province, Dec. 10, 2024. [Photo/Xinhua]

China's record-high trade volume, expanding partnerships, and enhanced trade structure in 2024 illustrate its further integration into the world economy, experts said during exclusive interviews with China.org.cn. They also said that the potential impact of U.S. tariff threats would be manageable, given China's economic strength and resilience.

Customs data shows that China's total import and export value hit a new high of 43.85 trillion yuan ($6.16 trillion) last year, up 5% year on year. China has established itself as a major trading partner for more than 150 countries and regions.

"China's 2024 import and export data reflects deepening integration in both quantity and quality," said Hong Junjie, president of Shandong University of Finance and Economics in China.

Yan Liang, a professor of economics at Willamette University in the U.S., expressed a similar sentiment, noting that China's integration into the global economy is evident in its export and import shares, of the world's total in the first three quarters of 2024, respectively. "The highlights of China's trade in 2024 are the sheer volume, notable growth, and improvements in the trade structure," she added.

During a recent press conference, Wang Lingjun, vice minister of the General Administration of Customs of China, emphasized the ongoing optimization of trade structure, robust growth in high-tech product exports, record-high exports of domestic brands, and the rise of new trade models such as cross-border e-commerce.

"The optimization of the trade structure highlights China's growing importance in the global industrial and supply chains," Hong said.

John Gong, professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in China, highlighted China's export data in December. He said the growth rate of 10.9%, though likely spurred by businesses rushing to ship goods before tariffs take effect, reflects the overall strong competitiveness of China's export sector.

He also emphasized the importance of striving for a more balanced, sustainable trade approach, which can be accomplished by increasing imports and promoting outward foreign direct investment, he said. 

Regarding the tariff threats from the U.S., Gong anticipates some impact on China's exports but added that these effects will likely be manageable.

Liang also believes that, despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, the potential damage to the Chinese economy can be mitigated. This optimism is supported by improvements in the export structure and competitiveness, diverse export destinations, and the investment and supply chain initiatives of Chinese firms in countries less affected by U.S. tariffs.

Customs data reveals that China's exports of electromechanical products grew by 8.7% in 2024, accounting for 59.4% of the total export value. Among them, high-end equipment exports rose by over 40%. Additionally, ships and marine engineering equipment exports increased by 60.1%. Moreover, China's exports with over 160 countries and regions saw expansion in 2024, including the U.S.

Warwick Powell, an adjunct professor at the Queensland University of Technology in Australia, noted that China's exports to the Global South now surpass those to developed markets. While the U.S. share of China's exports has declined since 2018, this shift reflects faster export growth to other regions, he said. 

Both Hong and Liang believe that U.S. tariffs, if implemented, may shift the burden onto American consumers, potentially raising domestic inflation. Hong added that, despite the short-term effects on China's exports of general trade goods, these tariffs could in the long run push China's industries and companies to upgrade and expand trade and investment with countries and regions beyond the U.S. 

"Finally, it is important to bear in mind that China has an enormous domestic market," Liang noted. "The Chinese government has also prioritized boosting domestic demand for 2025 and pledged to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to support consumption and investment. So even if external demand weakens due to protectionist policies, China's economy will still be driven by domestic demand."

During the tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference in December 2024, China outlined several key tasks for 2025, including the expansion of domestic demand across all sectors.

"Despite the uncertainties surrounding globalization, steadfastly advancing economic openness and cooperation remains the best option," Hong said.

He believes China should continue to expand institutional openness, align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, build a network of high-standard free trade zones, and promote the signing of bilateral and multilateral economic and trade agreements.

Hong also proposed enhancing measures for both opening up and unilateral opening, while consolidating and expanding efforts under the Belt and Road Initiative. This includes broadening and deepening cooperation areas and facilitating trade and investment.

In the past year, China has remained committed to opening up its economy, implementing measures such as tariff reductions and exemptions, visa-free transits, and the relaxation of investment restrictions to boost trade, investment and tourism, Liang noted.

For instance, on Dec. 1 of last year, China began granting zero-tariff treatment on 100% of tariff lines for products from all least developed countries with which it has diplomatic relations. This has resulted in an 18.1% increase in imports from these nations in that month, according to customs data.

"While the U.S. and its Western allies are reverting to protectionist policies and undermining the multilateral system, China will continue to uphold multilateralism and play a leading role in stabilizing and promoting global economic interactions and development," Liang said.

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