Conflict prevention in the 21st century
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 4, 2016
ANNEX 5: Partnerships in Conflict Prevention: China and the UK
Project update: Issue 3
The Partnerships in Conflict Preventionproject aims to increase dialogue and understanding between the Chinese and UK policy communities on how to prevent violent conflict and promote stability overseas, particularly through upstream conflict prevention, crisis diplomacy and early warning. In April 2015, the CPWG reconvened in London for a series of events focusing on early warning and response, which are outlined in this project update (Issue 3). See here for Issue 1 and Issue 2.
Conflict Prevention Working Group workshop three: Early warning and response
The third CPWG workshop to date provided a space for the group to explore the theory and practice of early warning and response systems and to discuss the parameters for China-UK cooperation in this area.
Discussion initially focused around the challenges of early warning and response systems, including:
• the need for early warning methods to adapt and evolve in response to the increasingly hybrid nature of contemporary conflict
• the issue of verification of information and 'ground-truthing' where 'grey' sources of information are relied upon
• how to involve local actors in all stages of the early warning chain (i.e. in the data collection, warning and response) to counter the risk of information being distorted, and increase the timeliness and appropriateness of response
For this to be successful, it was argued, investment in building local capacity to support early warning and response should be increased and funding to the relevant agencies and organizations should be made more flexible. At the same time, rather than prioritizing the creation of new structures, responders should first analyze how existing structures can be improved to react more quickly and efficiently to emerging crises. Several members argued that alongside early warning and response there should be an emphasis on assisting communities to become more resilient to crises.
The CPWG also endorsed the concept of 'peace early warning', suggesting that the emphasis of early warning should not solely focus on conflict, but should also involve peace analysis to highlight windows of opportunity for peace-making and to help promote actions that sustain peace rather than just counter violence.
The second session of the workshop focused on the potential for China-UK cooperation in early warning and response to violent conflict. The CPWG discussed what a China UK partnership in this area might look like – the findings of which will shortly be available on our website in a joint briefing by two of the CPWG members, Is Early Warning and Response Dead? Numerous challenges were highlighted, including sensitivities related to information sharing and differences in the two countries' foreign policy objectives with regards to conflict prevention. It was suggested by members that as China's foreign policy becomes increasingly active, this might increase the opportunities for international cooperation in this area. Multilateral bodies, institutions and commissions – the UNSC included – were identified as arenas through which cooperation could take place.
Bridging the gap between early warning and early response to violent conflict
Saferworld and King's College London co-hosted a roundtable: Bridging the gap between early warning and early response to violent conflict, involving the CPWG, civil society experts, NGO representatives, academics and UK government and EU officials.
One of the most common critiques of early warning is that it has not translated into early or effective response. In this respect, the roundtable aimed to contribute to the debate by exploring the early warning and response gap and potential solutions to bridging this gap. The roundtable also explored the development of collaborative relationships among local, national and international actors for effective early warning and response.
The seminar started with a discussion around the notion that the greatest challenges in early warning systems are not, as is commonly presumed, related to a lack of data, but rather a much wider set of problems, occurring at different stages of the early warning process – a process which includes data gathering, analysis, communication, prioritization and mobilization. Participants questioned, for example, how it is that a strong and credible relationship can be built between the warning producer and warning recipient; how warning producers can be made to feel empowered to warn even if warnings are inconvenient or risky to one's career; and how it is that warmers can best communicate the warning at the right time in a way that makes the right impact.
Officials from the European External Action Service and the UK's FCO discussed their institutions' respective approaches to early warning and response, with discussions focusing on the institutional mechanisms, mandates and capacities in place, as well as the respective challenges. Representatives from two peace building NGOs also discussed the policies, tools, systems and stakeholders that should allow actions to be taken to address immediate tensions and violence as well as longer-term structural causes of violent conflict. Case studies discussed included Kenya, the Philippines, Central African Republic and Lebanon.
China's approach to early warning and response was a focal point of discussion. It was argued that China does not have a systematic approach to responding to conflict outside of its territory and that early warning and response had only fairly recently come under consideration by Chinese policy makers – following the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China in 2002. Following the SARS crisis, a national framework – the Emergency Response Preparedness Plan (ERPP) – was devised (though it has as yet not come into effect) as a means of categorizing and devising responses to national-level threats. ERPP, it was posited, has also encouraged interagency coordination within China in responding to crises. China's National Security Council, responsible for domestic and international security, also has a role to play in this regard, especially in terms of responding to threats that overseas Chinese increasingly face in states affected by conflict. Participants discussed the idea that Chinese businesses have a particularly strong incentive to engage in early warning and response in this regard – as a means of protecting personnel based in conflict affected and fragile states as well as financial investments. In terms of early warning and response vis-a-vis other countries, it was argued that China has not as yet taken a very active role. One obstacle in this regard relates to China's foreign policy principles of respect for sovereignty and non-interference which, it was stated, have greatly impeded China's willingness to take unilateral action in early warning and response.
The roundtable concluded with participants sharing views around learning and cooperation between the UK and China in warning response. Discussions here related to the possibility for building complementarily between the two countries and focusing on comparative advantages and common interests. The idea of promoting cooperation amongst British and Chinese businesses, think tanks and academics in this field was advocated by various participants. Finally, given sensitivities around China-UK cooperation, it was also posited that the initial entry point should be around bilateral cooperation in building the capacity of local actors to do early warning and response.
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