China News Service:

The steady and sound development momentum of the national economy was more pronounced in the first half year. However, I would still like to ask why the CPI grew comparatively slowly and the PPI suffered a drop from a high level?

Xing Zhihong:

Thank you for your question. We often say that prices are a comprehensive reflection of supply and demand. In fact, the pattern of supply and demand has changed in a positive way this year, with the relationship between them markedly improved.

While analyzing changes in the CPI, we can see the figure has remained generally low for this year, as it has mainly affected by declining food prices, particularly pork, fresh vegetables and eggs, which declined continuously in the first half of this year. More specifically, pork and fresh vegetable prices declined for five straight months from February, and egg prices witnessed a consecutive eight-month decline, with only a slight new change recently.

We all know food consumption is relatively stable among residents, and its elasticity is relatively small, so any decline in food prices is mainly due to increased supply. Overall, so far this year, the situation of food supply in pork, fresh vegetables and eggs has been comparatively good, leading to significant price falls. However, we also noticed that prices in non-food sectors rose by 2.3 percent over the same period of last year, 1.1 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. Among them, the industrial consumer price rose by 1.9 percent compared to the same period of last year; however, last year's figure was 0.3 percent lower than previous year. Service-related project prices rose by 2.9 percent in the first half of this year, an increase of 0.9 percentage point year-on-year.These two statistics reflect a marked rise in market demand in the industrial consumer sector and in the service consumer sector. They are also consistent with the positive changes in our current industrial production and service development.

Moreover, in regard to the PPI, we can see the growth of the figure has gradually slowed down in recent months, mainly influenced by changes in raw material prices. Last year, a series of raw material prices – mainly involving coal, iron and steel, nonferrous metals and petroleum – rose fairly drastically to reach a high point in February this year before a downward adjustment took over. Take the oil exploration industry as an example. Prices rose by about 70 percent overall in the first quarter and rose only by about 25 percent in the second quarter, obviously, a huge fall. As for the steel industry, namely ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, its price rose by more than 30 percent in the first quarter and about 21 percent in the second quarter. Such large price movements have great impact on the overall lmovement of the PPI. However, at the same time, we have also noticed that prices in most industrial sectors are still rising. Among the 40 surveyed sectors in the second quarter, prices in 34 saw year-on-year growth. At the same time, the trend of price changes in the equipment manufacturing, consumer goods manufacturing and other industries is in the opposite direction with year-on-year growth continuing to expand. The second quarter witnessed a higher increase of prices in 25 related sectors compared to the first quarter. This reflects an overall upward boom in our entire industrial field, which is a very positive change for the development of the industrial sector. Thank you.

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