Hu Kaihong:

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to this press conference. Today, we are delighted to invite Mr. Ning Jizhe, head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), to introduce China's economic performance in 2018, and answer your questions. Now, I'll give the floor to Mr. Ning.

Ning Jizhe:

Good morning, chairperson, friends from the press. In 2018, China's economy operated within a reasonable range and our main social and economic development targets were realized. This is because all localities and departments stuck to the overall tone of making progress while maintaining stability in their work. They embraced new development philosophies, sought high-quality development, and pressed ahead with supply-side structural reform. As a result, the supply-side structural reform has gone deeper, reform and opening-up efforts have been intensified, living standards have been improved, the economy has remained in a reasonable range and the trend of achieving progress while maintaining stability has continued. We are continuing to make progress toward building a moderately prosperous society.

According to preliminary calculations, China's GDP in 2018 hit 90.03 trillion yuan, up 6.6 percent from the previous year, realizing the goal of 6.5 percent growth. The four quarters saw growth rates of 6.8 percent, 6.7 percent, 6.5 percent, and 6.4 percent, respectively. The value added of industries were 6.47 trillion yuan, 36.60 trillion yuan, and 46.96 trillion for the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, respectively, with growth rates of 3.5 percent, 5.8 percent, and 7.6 percent.

1. Grain production enjoyed a high yield, and production of animal husbandry was generally stable.

Last year's total grain output was 657.89 million tons, down by 0.6 percent from the previous year. Regardless, this was still a year of bumper harvest and we've maintained an output of over 650 million tons for four consecutive years. The output of summer grain, early rice and autumn grain was 138.78 million tons, 28.59 million tons and 490.52 million tons respectively. The total output of cotton was 6.10 million tons, up by 7.8 percent from the previous year. The planting structure continues to improve as the land used to grow high-quality rice, soybeans, cotton, sugar crops and Chinese medicinal herbs increased, while the land allocated to maize growth decreased.

The total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 85.17 million tons, down by 0.3 percent over last year. The total output of pork was 54.04 million tons, down by 0.9 percent; output of beef was 6.44 million tons, up by 1.5 percent; the output of mutton was 4.75 million tons, up by 0.8 percent; the output of poultry was 19.94 million tons, up by 0.6 percent. The number of live pigs was 428.17 million, down by 3 percent from the previous year; the amount of pigs slaughtered was 693.82 million, down by 1.2 percent.

2. Industrial production increased steadily, and new industries grew rapidly.

The value added of industrial enterprises with an annual revenue at or above 20 million yuan from their main operations increased by 6.2 percent in 2018 over the previous year, with a moderate and stable growth rate. In terms of different types of organizations, the value added of state-holding enterprises increased by 6.2 percent, that of collective enterprises decreased by 1.2 percent, that of joint-stock enterprises went up 6.6 percent, and that of enterprises with foreign, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan investors grew by 4.8 percent. In terms of different industries, the value added of mining increased 2.3 percent, that of manufacturing was up 6.5 percent, and that of producing and supplying electricity, heat, gas and water grew by 9.9 percent. The value added of high-tech manufacturing rose by 11.7 percent, strategic emerging industries by 8.9 percent and equipment manufacturing by 8.1 percent over the previous year, a growth 5.5, 2.7 and 1.9 percent faster, respectively, than of industrial enterprises over the designated revenue of 20 million yuan. The output of emerging industrial products increased rapidly, with passenger trains rising 183.0 percent, microwave terminals 104.5 percent, new energy vehicles 40.1 percent, bio-based chemical fibers 23.5 percent, smart televisions 18.7 percent, lithium-ion batteries 12.9 percent and integrated circuits by 9.7 percent. In December, the value added of industrial enterprises with an annual revenue of 20 million yuan or more from their main business operations increased by 5.7 percent year over year, 0.3 percentage point higher than the growth rate in November. 

From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises with an annual revenue of 20 million yuan or more from their main business operations reached 6.1169 trillion yuan, up 11.8 percent year on year. The profit margin of this same subset of industrial enterprises was 6.48 percent, 0.16 percentage point higher than the same period last year.

3. The service sector maintained fast growth, and the business activity indexes remained within the range of expansion.

In 2018, the Index for Service Industry Production maintained rapid growth, increasing by 7.7 percent over the previous year. Among sectors, information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services grew by 37.0 percent and 10.1 percent respectively. In December, the Index for Service Industry Production increased by 7.3 percent year over year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month. From January to November, the business revenue of service enterprises above designated size increased by 11.5 percent year over year. In particular, the business revenue of strategic emerging services, science and technology and high-tech services increased by 14.9, 15.0 and 13.4 percent year over year, respectively. The operating profit of service enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7 percent.

In December, the Index for Service Industry Business Activity stood at 52.3 percent, which was within the expansion range. Specifically, the figures for railways, telecommunications, radio and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, insurance and other financial industries were all in a higher expansion range above 60.0 percent. In terms of market expectations, the Index for Service Industry Business Activity Expectation reached 60.2 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month.

4. Market sales grew steadily and rapidly, and the proportion of online retail sales increased significantly.

The total annual retail sales of consumer goods reached 38.10 trillion yuan, an increase of 9 percent over the previous year, which reflects relatively rapid growth. Specifically, the retail sales of consumer goods by enterprises above the designated size stood at 14.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.7 percent. If we categorize them according to the business location, the retail sales in urban areas reached 32.56 trillion yuan, up 8.8 percent, while the retail sales in rural areas reached 5.54 trillion yuan, up 10.1 percent. 

According to the type of consumption, catering income was 4.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.5 percent and the retail sales of goods were 33.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9 percent. The upgraded consumption goods have seen relatively rapid growth. The growth rates of retail sales in three categories, namely of cosmetics, of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, and of communication equipment, were 3.9, 3.2 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods by enterprises above the designated size. In December, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2 percent year over year, or 0.55 percent month-on-month.

The annual online retail sales nationwide reached 9.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9 percent over the previous year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 7.02 trillion yuan, up 25.4 percent, accounting for 18.4 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods, or 3.4 percentage points higher than the previous year; the online retail sales of non-physical goods were 1.99 trillion yuan, up 18.7 percent.

5. Investment growth overall slowed down and stabilized; however, investments in the manufacturing industry and private investment increased at a faster rate.

National fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 63.5636 trillion yuan, up 5.9 percent year over year, or 0.5 percentage point higher than the growth rate achieved in the first three quarters. Private investment reached 39.4051 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7 percent year over year and 2.7 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. In regard to specific industries, primary sector investment increased 12.9 percent, up 1.1 percentage points from the same period of previous year. Secondary industry investment rose 6.2 percent, or 3.0 percentage points higher, of which that by the manufacturing industry increased 9.5 percent, which was a gain of 4.7 percentage points. Tertiary industry investment rose 5.5 percent, including a 3.8 percent increase in infrastructure. Investment in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased 16.1 percent and 11.1 percent respectively on an annual basis, or 6.6 and 1.6 percentage points higher than the growth of overall manufacturing investment. In December, fixed asset investment increased by 0.42 percent from the previous month. Last year, total investment in real estate development was 12.0264 trillion yuan, up 9.5 percent year over year. The total floor space of commercial buildings sold was 1.71654 billion square meters, up 1.3 percent year over year, of that of residential buildings sold grew by 2.2 percent. The total sales of commercial buildings reached 14.9973 trillion yuan, up 12.2 percent year over year, including a 14.7-percent growth in sales of residential buildings.

6. Imports and exports reached a record high, with the structure of trade continuing to improve.

China's imports and exports last year reached 30.51 trillion yuan, up 9.7 percent year-on-year. This was the first time the figure exceeded 30 trillion yuan. Foreign trade maintained growth with structural optimization, ensuring a steady and sound momentum for both imports and exports to exceed expectations. Exports rose 7.1 percent year on year to 16.42 trillion yuan, while imports grew 12.9 percent to 14.09 trillion yuan. This produced a trade surplus of 2.33 trillion yuan, a drop of 18.3 percent from the previous year. General trade accounted for 57.8 percent of all activity, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous year. Electromechanical exports, constituting 58.8 percent of total exports, grew by 7.9 percent, or 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous year. Imports and exports with major trading partners, – including the European Union, the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, achieved overall growth, the figures being 7.9 percent, 5.7 percent and 11.2 percent respectively. Trade with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative continued their upswing, growth reaching an aggregated 13.3 percent year-on-year, which was 3.6 percentage points higher than the improvement achieved in overall imports and exports. The export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated scale reached 12.39 trillion yuan, up 8.5 percent year-on-year.

7. Consumer price saw a mild surge and the growth of industrial producer's price fell.

Annual consumer prices grew by 2.1 percent year over year, which reflects a mild increase, lower than the projected target of 3 percent. Within this category, urban consumer price increased 2.1 percent, and rural 2.1 percent. The price of food, tobacco and wine increased 1.9 percent, clothing 1.2 percent, residence 2.4 percent, articles of daily use and services 1.6 percent, traffic and communication 1.7 percent, education, culture and entertainment 2.2 percent, medical care 4.3 percent, and other articles for use and services 1.2 percent. Within the price of food, tobacco and wine, the price of grain rose 0.8 percent, pork fell 8.1 percent, and fresh vegetables went up 7.1 percent. The core CPI, with food and energy prices deducted, increased 1.9 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than the previous year. In December, consumer prices increased by 1.9 percent year over year, the same as November's rate. The annual factory prices from industrial producers went up 3.5 percent year over year, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous year. The industrial producer factory price increased 0.9 percent year over year in December, 1.0 percent lower than that of November. The annual industrial producer purchase price increased 4.1 percent year over year; within that, in December the industrial producer purchase price rose by 1.6 percent year over year, or 0.9 percent lower than November's figure. 

8. Employment remained stable and urban surveyed unemployment declined. 

The number of new jobs was 13.61 million last year, 100,000 more than the previous year and 123.7 percent of the annual target. The number of annually increased jobs has remained above 13 million for six years consecutively. In December, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 4.9 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the same month of the previous year. Last year, the urban surveyed unemployment rate remained between 4.8 percent and 5.1 percent, realizing the target of keeping it below 5.5 percent. In December, the surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 4.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than the same month of the previous year. The surveyed unemployment rate of the main employment population between 25 years old and 59 years old was 4.4 percent, remaining the same as the previous month. By the end of the year, the number of employed persons nationwide was 775.86 million, of which the urban employed population was 434.19 million. The number of migrant workers hit 288.36 million last year, 1.84 million more than the previous year, up 0.6 percent year over year. Of these, the number of migrant workers working at or near their hometowns was 115.7 million, up 0.9 percent, and the number of migrant workers working far from their hometowns was 172.66 million, up 0.5 percent. The average monthly income for migrant workers was 3,721 yuan, up 6.8 percent year over year.  

9. The income and consumption expenditure of residents increased steadily, and growth in rural areas was faster than in urban ones.

In 2018, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 28,228 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.7 percent over the previous year, or a real increase of 6.5 percent after deducting price factors, exceeding the growth of per capita GDP and essentially keeping up with economic growth. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 39,251 yuan, a nominal growth of 7.8 percent over the previous year, or a real growth of 5.6 percent after deducting price factors. The per capita disposable income of rural households was 14,617 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.8 percent over the previous year, or 6.6 percent in real terms after deducting price factors. The per capita income of urban households was 2.69 times that of rural households, 0.02 less than the previous year. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income was 24,336 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.6 percent. Taking the per capita disposable income of nationwide households by income quintiles, that of the low-income group reached 6,440 yuan, the lower-middle-income group 14,361 yuan, the middle-income group 23,189 yuan, the upper-middle-income group 36,471 yuan, and the high-income group 70,640 yuan.

In 2018, the nationwide per capita consumption expenditure was 19,853 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.4 percent, 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous year, or a real increase of 6.2 percent after deducting price factors, 0.8 percentage point higher than the previous year. The per capita consumption expenditure of urban households was 26,112 yuan, a nominal growth of 6.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point more than the previous year. The per capita consumption expenditure of rural households was 12,124 yuan, a nominal increase of 10.7 percent, 2.6 percentage points more than the previous year.

10. Supply-side structural reform has gone deeper; and the trend of economic transformation and upgrading has continued.

2018 has seen substantive progress in fulfilling the five priority tasks of cutting overcapacity, reducing excess inventory, deleveraging, lowering costs, and strengthening points of weakness. In terms of cutting overcapacity, the tasks for iron, steel and coal were completed ahead of schedule. Nationally, the rate of industrial capacity utilization was 76.5 percent. The rate for ferrous metal melting and rolling was 78 percent and that for coal mining and washing was 70.6 percent, up 2.2 and 2.4 percentage points, respectively, from a year ago. In terms of deleveraging, the corporate asset-liability ratio went down. At the end of November, the ratio for industrial enterprises above the designated size was 56.8 percent, down 0.4 percentage point year over year. Among these enterprises, state-holding ones had a ratio of 59.1 percent, down by 1.6 percentage points. In terms of reducing excess inventory, China's housing for sale totaled 524.14 million square meters at the end of 2018, representing a fall of 11 percent. In terms of lowering cost, corporate costs continued to decline. From January to November, industrial enterprises above the designated size saw their costs fall by 0.21 yuan to 84.19 yuan for each one hundred yuan they made from their core businesses. In terms of strengthening points of weakness, investment in points of weakness saw fast expansion. Namely, investment in ecological protection and environmental improvement expanded by 43 percent and agricultural investment by 15.4 percent, up 37.1 and 9.5 percentage points respectively.

Economic structure continued to improve. The value added from the tertiary industry accounted for 52.2 percent of the GDP, up 0.3 percentage point year over year. This was 11.5 percentage points higher than contributions from the secondary industry, which increased by 0.1 percentage point to 59.7 percent. Consumption's role as a main driver for economic growth became stronger, with final consumption expenditure contributing 76.2 percent to GDP growth, up 18.6 percentage points year over year and 43.8 percent higher than the contribution of gross capital formation. Household consumption saw an advancement toward higher quality. The national Engel coefficient was 28.4 percent, down by 0.9 percentage point from last year. Of the total household consumption per capita, 44.2 percent was on services, up 1.6 percentage points year over year. Green development also made solid progress. Energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP dropped by 3.1 percent, meeting the goal of falling by at least 3 percent. The proportions of energy consumption continued to improve. Clean energy, such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power, saw a higher ratio of total energy consumption, up by about 1.3 percentage points from the previous year.

11. China's population grew steadily, and the urbanization rate continued to rise. 

By the end of 2018, the mainland population (including populations of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and PLA personnel, excluding populations of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Macao Special Administrative Region, Taiwan Province and overseas Chinese) stood at 1.39538 billion, an increase of 5.3 million from the year before. There were a total of 15.23 million births and 9.93 million deaths reported in 2018, and the birth and death rates reached 10.94 and 7.13 per 1,000, respectively. In terms of gender structure, there were 713.51 million males and 681.87 million females, putting a gender ratio at 104.64. The working-age population (people aged from 16 to 59) stood at 897.29 million, representing 64.3 percent of the total population. About 249.49 million people were registered as being 60 or older, accounting for 17.9 percent of the population; 166.58 million were 65 or older, or 11.9 percent of the population. There were 831.37 million urban residents, a 17.9 million increase from the previous year. The rural population fell 12.6 million to a total of 564.01 million. The urbanization rate was 59.58 percent, 1.06 percentage points higher than the previous year. About 286 million people resided places for over six months away from their places of residential registration, 4.5 million less than the previous year. Specifically, the floating population was 241 million, 3.78 million less than the previous year.

Generally speaking, the national economy in 2018 performed within a reasonable range. It maintained sound and steady growth. At the same time, we have noticed that there are still some changes in the economic operation that are a cause of some concern. We are also facing a complex and serious external environment, accompanied by downward pressure on overall economic growth. All such problems need to be resolved in a targeted manner. In 2019, we will continue to take advantage of the important period of strategic opportunities for development, adhere to the policy of making progress while pursuing stability, commit ourselves to the new development philosophy, seek high-quality development, and pursue supply-side structural reform as the main task. We will stimulate market vitality, demand potential and the driving force of growth, and take comprehensive steps to stabilize growth, facilitate reform, adjust various structures, improve people's livelihood and prevent risks. At the same time, we should also improve the counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, enhance structural policies in regard to institutional development, ensure we can continue to provide the basic needs in regard to social policies, and maintain continuous and healthy economic development and social stability, so as to lay a key foundation for building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects. Thank you.

Related

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)