Phoenix TV:

Our question concerns the total population. The number of births has been shrinking for the second consecutive year, with the birth rate and the natural population growth rate reaching new lows. What do you think of this situation? Does the gradual decline in population growth rate mean the demographic dividend of China's economic growth is disappearing ahead of schedule?

Ning Jizhe:

Recently, people are very concerned about the population data. Some research articles suggest the population will see so-called negative growth. The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has clearly shown that, in 2018, China's population is not only growing, but also the number of births, 15.23 million, is relatively large. This figure is still very impressive. As for the decline in the population growth rate and birth rate, you mustn't concentrate on the one-year data. We need to undertake long-term observation on this point. We have had population peaks in our history, and, now, the structural changes in population occur naturally; so, we shouldn't over-interpret it. 

The demographic structure changes with economic and social development. As mentioned earlier, the demographic dividend still exists. China has labor resources of nearly 900 million people. This scale is huge, despite some fluctuations. The labor participation rate is not low in global terms. More than 700 million out of 900 million people are employed, and there is still room for growth. The quantity of labor itself presents a great potential. Everyone notices that there are still 288 million migrant workers, which is a very large pool of available labor. Although the population who reside in areas other than that of their household registration has declined, the number is still very large. The reason for the decline is that 100 million workers have been employed in cities, being transformed from farmers into urban residents. Now, with the development of the central and western regions, foreign companies and domestic companies in coastal areas have invested more there. With the improvement of transportation and infrastructure in these areas, and the implementation of various regional development strategies, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, many finding jobs in secondary and tertiary industries nearby, creating a new trend. The quality of the labor force is improving constantly; coupled with the fact appearance of eight million college graduates each year, their contribution to industrial upgrading and talent bonuses will become even more prominent. We attach more importance to the talent bonus, and, along with the fact that China still has a demographic dividend, it can be said that the factors supporting the medium and long-term positive trend of the national economy have not changed.

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