SCIO briefing on China's economy in H1
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 16, 2019
Speaker:
Mao Shengyong, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and director general of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics
Chairperson:
Shou Xiaoli, Press Bureau of State Council Information Office
Date:
July 15, 2019
Shou Xiaoli:
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to this press conference. Today, we are releasing China's economic data. We are pleased to welcome Mr. Mao Shengyong, the spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and director general of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics, to introduce China's economic performance in the first half of 2019 and answer some of your questions.
Now, I'll give the floor to Mr. Mao.
Mao Shengyong:
Thank you. Ladies, gentlemen, friends from the media, good morning everyone. I'll first give you a brief introduction of China's economic performance in the first half of 2019, and then answer some of your questions.
In the first half this year, China's economy remained stable while making further progress. In view of the complex domestic and international environment, under the firm leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and followed the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability. We adopted the new development philosophy, promoted high-quality development, focused on supply-side structural reform, and further improved our efforts in reform and opening up. We also intensified efforts to ensure stable employment, a stable financial sector, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable domestic investment, and stable market expectations. Due to these efforts, the Chinese economy has been operating within a proper range, and remained stable while making further progress.
According to preliminary statistics, in the first half this year, GDP reached 45.09 trillion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year in comparable prices. On a quarterly basis, the year-on-year increase was 6.4% and 6.2% respectively. In regard to the different industrial sectors, the added value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries was 2.32 trillion yuan, 18.00 trillion yuan and 24.77 trillion yuan respectively, up 3.0%, 5.8% and 7.0% year-on-year.
Mao Shengyong:
First, the agricultural sector posted a sound performance following a bumper harvest of summer grain.
In the first half of this year, the added value of the crop farming sector posted a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage point lower than that of the first quarter. The overall output of summer grain amounted to 141.74 million tons, 2.93 million tons more than last year, showing a yearly growth of 2.1%, which met the highest record (registered in 2017) of summer grain production. The structure of crop farming continues to be improved, as the planting area for cotton and soybean increased. On a year-on-year basis, in the first half, the output of eggs increased 3.6%; the output of milk increased by 1.7%; the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry decreased 2.1% to 39.11 million tons. Specifically, the output of beef, mutton and poultry were up by 2.4%, 1.5%, and 5.6% respectively, while the output of pork was down by 5.5%.
Second, industrial production was generally stable, and the proportion of high-tech manufacturing rose.
In the first half of this year, the growth of the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 6.0%, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage point lower than that of the first quarter. Meanwhile, the growth of the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size in June was 6.3%, and the growth rate was 1.3 percentage points higher than that of May, up 0.68% on a month-on-month basis. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state holding enterprises was up by 5.0%; that of share-holding enterprises up by 7.3%; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan up by 1.4%.
In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining industry increased by 3.5%; that of manufacturing increased by 6.4%; and that of the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased by 7.3%. The value added of strategic emerging industries grew by 7.7% year-on-year, or 1.7 percentage points higher than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size. The added value of the high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.0%, or 3.0 percentage points higher than that of industrial enterprises above the designated size, accounting for 13.8% of all industrial enterprises above the designated size, and this proportion is 0.8 percentage point higher than that in the same period last year. The production of new energy vehicles and solar batteries showed a year-on-year growth by 34.6% and 20.1% respectively.
From January to May, the profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size stood at 2.38 trillion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year. The decrease was 1.1 percentage points lower than that from the first four months. The profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size in May grew by 1.1%, while the profits in April decreased by 3.7% on a year-on-year basis. The profit rate of business revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.72%, 0.2 percentage point higher than that from the first four months.
Third, the service sector grew rapidly and the modern service industry is booming.
In the first half of this year, the service sector took on a sound momentum of development. Respectively, the year-on-year growth of information transmission, software and information technology service, that of leasing and business service, that of transportation, storage and postal service, and that of financial sector stood at 20.6%, 7.8%, 7.3%, and 7.3%, which is 13.6 percentage points, 0.8 percentage point, 0.3 percentage point and 0.3 percentage point faster than the growth of the tertiary sector.
In the first half of this year, the Index of Services Production increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate drop by 0.1 percentage point from the first quarter. In June, the index was up by 7.1%, 0.1 percentage point higher than that in May. The Business Activity Index for services was 53.4% in June, which continued to stand above the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction. The index was 60.3%, showing a high-level performance.
The business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size from January to May increased by 10.1% on a year-on-year basis, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage point faster than that from the first four months. Of those, the business revenue of strategic emerging services, high-tech services and technology services demonstrated fast growth, which increased by 12.5%, 12.3% and 12.0% respectively, or 2.4 percentage points, 2.2 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points faster than the growth of the service enterprises above the designated size.
Mao Shengyong:
Fourth, the market sales increased steadily, with the growth rate and proportion of online retail continuing to increase.
In the first half of this year, the retail sales of consumer goods totaled 19.52 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year on year, 0.1 percentage point faster than the first quarter. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.39 trillion yuan, up 9.8% year on year, 1.2 percentage points faster than the previous month, and up 0.96% month on month. In a breakdown by location of business units, in the first half of this year, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas was 16.69 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year on year; that in rural areas was 2.83 trillion yuan, up 9.1% year on year. From the perspective of the types of consumption, revenue from the catering sector reached 2.13 trillion yuan, up 9.4%; retail sales of commodities totaled 17.39 trillion yuan, up 8.3%. Sales of goods representing consumption upgrade grew rapidly, with that of cosmetics companies above designated size growing 13.2% year on year, 4.8 percentage points faster than the total retail sales of consumer goods.
In the first half of this year, China's online retail sales totaled 4.82 trillion yuan, up 17.8% year on year, 2.5 percentage points faster than the first quarter. Of this, online retail sales of physical goods was 3.82 trillion yuan, up 21.6%, accounting for 19.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, and 1.4 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.
Mao Shengyong:
Fifth, investment reported stable growth, with that in high-tech industries growing rapidly.
In the first half of this year, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 29.91 trillion yuan, up 5.8% year on year, 0.2 percentage point faster than January-May, and 0.5 percentage point lower than that in the first quarter. Of this, the private investment was 18.03 trillion yuan, up 5.7%. In a breakdown by industry, investment in primary industries fell by 0.6%; investment in secondary industries grew by 2.9%, with that in manufacturing up 3.0%; investment in tertiary industries rose by 7.4%, with that in infrastructure up 4.1%.
Investment in the high-tech manufacturing sector grew by 10.4% year on year, 4.6 percentage points faster than the total; that in the high-tech services sector grew by 13.5%, 7.7 percentage points faster than the total. On a month-on-month basis, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 0.44% in June.
In the first half of this year, China's investment in real estate development totaled 6.16 trillion yuan, up 10.9% year on year, 0.9 percentage point lower than that in the first quarter. The total floor space of commercial housing sold nationwide amounted to 757.86 million square meters, down 1.8% year on year. Sales of commercial housing nationwide totaled 7.07 trillion yuan, up 5.6%, the same growth rate as in the first quarter.
Mao Shengyong:
Sixth, the growth rate of imports and exports increased slightly, and the trade structure continued to improve.
In the first half of this year, the import and export value totaled 14.67 trillion yuan, up 3.9% year on year, 0.2 percentage point faster than the first quarter. Of this, the export value was 7.95 trillion yuan, up 6.1%; the import value totaled 6.72 trillion yuan, up 1.4%. The trade surplus was 1.24 trillion yuan, up 41.6% year on year.
The country further improved the mode and structure of trade. The import and export value of general trade increased by 5.5%, accounting for 59.9% of the total import and export value, 0.9 percentage point higher than the same period last year; the export value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.3%, accounting for 58.2% of the total export volume. The import and export value of private companies increased by 11.0%, accounting for 41.7% of the total import and export value, 2.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
In June, the import and export value totaled 2.56 trillion yuan, up 3.2% year on year. Of this, the export value totaled 1.45 trillion yuan, up 6.1%; the import value totaled 1.11 trillion yuan, down 0.4%.
In the first half of this year, the delivery value of exports of companies above designated size reached 5.84 trillion yuan, up 4.2% year on year. In June, the figure reached 1.06 trillion yuan, up 1.9%, 1.2 percentage points faster than that registered in May.
Mao Shengyong:
Seventh, consumer prices rose moderately, and producer prices remained basically stable.
In the first half of this year, China's consumer prices rose 2.2% year on year, 0.4 percentage point higher than that in the first quarter. Of this, consumer prices in both urban and rural areas rose by 2.2%. By category, the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol rose 3.9% year on year, the prices of clothing rose 1.8%, housing prices increased 2.0%, the prices of daily necessities and services rose 1.1%, the prices of transportation and communications fell 1.0%, the prices of education, culture and entertainment rose 2.5%, the prices of medical care increased 2.6%, and those of other goods and services rose 2.2%. Among food, tobacco and alcohol prices, grain prices rose 0.5%, pork prices increased 7.7% and the prices of fresh vegetables rose 9.2%. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.8% year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the first quarter. In June, the consumer prices rose 2.7% year on year, unchanged from the previous month, down 0.1% month on month.
In the first half of this year, producer prices rose 0.3% year on year, 0.1 percentage point higher than that in the first quarter. In June, producer prices remained flat year on year and down 0.3% month on month. In the first half of this year, the purchasing prices of producers rose 0.1% year on year, the same as that in the first quarter. In June, the purchasing prices of producers fell by 0.3% year on year and 0.1% month on month.
Mao Shengyong:
The employment situation generally remained stable, and the total number of rural workers working outside their hometowns continued to increase.
In the first half of the year, 7.37 million new urban jobs were created across the country, meeting 67% of the annual employment target. The surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.1% in June, up 0.1 percentage points from May. The urban unemployment rate among the people aged between 25-59 was 4.6%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the overall national urban figure. The jobless rate in 31 major cities and towns was 5.0%, the same as May. In June, the average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide was calculated at 45.7 hours. By the end of the second quarter, the number of rural laborers forming the migrant workforce operating outside their hometowns reached 182.48 million. This was an increase of 2.26 million or 1.3% year-over-year. The gain in the second quarter was 0.1 percentage points higher than the first quarter.
Mao Shengyong:
The growth rate of residents' income exceeded that of national economy, and the income gap between urban and rural residents further narrowed.
In the first half of the year, national per capita disposable income was 15,294 yuan, a nominal gain of 8.8% year-over-year, with a 0.1 percentage points increase in the pace between the first and second quarters. With actual growth of 6.5% after adjusting for inflation, the figure was 0.2 percentage points higher than the national economic growth rate. Classified according to residents' permanent residence locations, urban residents' per capita disposable income was 21,342 yuan (actual growth 5.7%). Rural residents' per capita disposable income was 7,778 yuan (actual growth 6.6%). The per capita disposable income ratio between urban and rural residents stood at 2.74, down 0.03 year-over-year. The median per capita disposable income of national residents was 13,281 yuan, a nominal gain of 9.0% year-over-year.
Mao Shengyong:
Supply-side structural reform further deepened, and the economic structure has seen continuous progress in optimization.
We have consolidated the results achieved in the priority tasks of cutting overcapacity, reducing excess inventory, deleveraging, lowering costs and strengthening identified areas of weakness. In the second quarter, the national industrial capacity utilization rate was 76.4%, or 0.5 percentage points higher than the first quarter, and one percentage point higher than the average achieved since 2013. Among the figures, the industrial capacity utilization rates of the non-metallic mineral products industry, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry, and the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry increased by 3.4, 1.7 and 1.7 percentage points respectively from the first quarter. By the end of June, the total floor space of commercial buildings for sale stood at 501.62 million square meters, which was 7.66 million square meters less than the figure at the end of May, and 8.9% lower year-over-year. By the end of May, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.8%, down 0.6 percentage points year-over-year. In the first half of the year, investments in deprived areas of ecological preservation and environmental treatment as well as education grew respectively by 48.0% and 18.9% year-over-year (respectively 42.2, and 13.1 percentage points faster than the average growth of investments in all fields).
We continue the critical battles against major risks, poverty, and pollution. By the end of May, total local government debt stood at 19.8953 trillion yuan, which was within the limits approved by the National People's Congress. Targeted poverty alleviation made strong progress. The per capita disposable income of rural residents in poverty-stricken areas maintained comparatively rapid growth. Marked achievements were recorded in pollution prevention. Preliminary assessments indicate that, in the first half of the year, the share of clean energy consumption involving natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power in total energy consumption increased by 1.6 percentage points over the same period of last year, and energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped 2.7 percent year-over-year.
We have continuously optimized the economic structure. In the first half of the year. The tertiary industry's added value accounted for 54.9% of GDP, up 0.5 percentage points year-over-year, and 15.0 percentage points higher than the figure for secondary industry. The tertiary industry's contribution rate to GDP growth was 60.3%, or 23.2 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. Among industries above designated size, the strategic emerging industry and the high-tech industry maintained rapid growth. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 60.1%. Among the final consumption spending of all residents, service consumption accounted for 49.4%, up 0.6 percentage points year-over-year. We have steadily promoted a series of major regional development strategies, including the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and the integrated development of the Yangtze Economic Belt, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and the Yangtze River Delta. A new pattern of overall development across the country is taking shape.
Mao Shengyong:
In general, the national economy operated within a reasonable range in the first half of the year, having achieved generally stable growth while making further progress. However, we must also note that the current domestic and international economic situation remains complicated and severe. Global economic growth has slowed down, external instability and uncertainties have increased, and the problem of domestic development imbalance is still outstanding, while the economy faces new downward pressures.
In the next stage, we need to take Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guide, seriously implement the decision-making arrangements and deployments of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, adhere to the general approach of steady progress, and maintain supply-side structural reform as the principal direction, while promoting high-quality development, deepening reform and opening up, optimizing the business environment, promoting independent innovation in key areas, so as to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties. We also need to pay close attention to the implementation of the policies to stabilize employment, finance, investment, foreign trade, foreign investment, and expectations so as to ensure a steady and healthy economic development. Thank you.
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