SCIO briefing on China's economy in H1
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 16, 2019
Economic Daily:
Since the growth rate of the Chinese economy fell in the first half of this year, will it continue to drop in the third quarter？Is there any pressure to achieve the anticipated economic growth ranging between 6% to 6.5% this year? Are there any difficulties in reaching the targeted range? Thank you.
Mao Shengyong:
Thank you for your questions. The national economy achieved a growth rate of 6.3% during the first half of this year, which is a relatively good performance. I interpret the key part of your question as how to view the growth rate, and from my perspective, these are the key elements.
First, the rate of 6.3% represents a moderate and stable level. How can we substantiate that belief? During the first quarter of this year, the economy rose by 6.4%, which was only 0.1 percentage point higher than what was finally achieved during the first six months. Furthermore, if we take into consideration the various indices, including employment, prices, incomes and endeavors to ensure a quality ecological environment, the economy is running within an appropriate range.
Second, a rate of 6.3% isn't slow by any means. During the first quarter, the economic growth rate of 6.4% was certainly the best achieved right across the globe. Even though not all countries have yet released their economic growth figures for the first half of this year, it is probable that there was a general trend of global economic slowdown. Therefore, a growth rate of 6.3% achieved over the six months still ranks high.
Third, this rate of 6.3% indicates quality growth. While considering the economic performance we have achieved, we also need to be concerned about a number of important factors, such as relatively stable employment, increases in consumer prices that were moderate and, indeed, close to zero compared to fast-growing household incomes, and the decline of 2.7% in energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP. Hence, such a growth rate means sustainable development with high quality.
Fourth, that growth rate of 6.3% wasn't easily achieved. We all know that, since last year and continuing into the first half of this year, global economic growth and trade expansion have been slowing. In addition, the domestic economy, affected by underlying structural problems extending over quite a period of time, has been running under certain downward pressures. In such a context, the national economy has been growing steadily due to innovation-driven reforms, new macro-economic approaches, an improved business-friendly environment, reductions in taxes and administrative fees and the revived vitality of many market entities, rather than under some overwhelmingly strong stimulus plans.
Fifth, the growth rate of 6.3% is immensely sustainable. Achieving that during the first half of this year provides a solid foundation for an annual growth rate expected to range between 6.0% to 6.5%. Looking at the second half of this year, the external environment will probably remain complicated, and there are still downward domestic pressures to be handled. Despite that, the economic performance will still sustain stable momentum and the economic policies, with an increasingly competitive domestic market, still have a great number of options available. All in all, the various factors combined can ensure that the major goal for this year's economic development can be achieved. Thank you.
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