SCIO briefing on China's economy in H1
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 16, 2019
CNR:
In June, the PPI leveled off compared to the figure for the same period last year and actually fell 0.3% month-on-month. Some industry insiders are concerned about a potential deflation or inflation in the Chinese economy. Do you see the PPI continuing to fall in the second half of the year? Could you please give us your analysis? Thank you.
Mao Shengyong:
Thanks for your question. First, generally speaking, the PPI maintained moderate growth in the first half of this year, or around 0.3% year-on-year. In the next stage, it will be influenced by both the supply-demand situation as well as developments in the international environment, such as fluctuations in commodity prices. In general, I think there are likely to be some slight fluctuations ahead, but we will have to see how it goes.
Second, you talked about inflationary and deflationary risks, which are related to both economic performance and price changes. When we look at the price changes, we must analyze both the PPI and the CPI. If you put the two indicators together for the first half of this year, the CPI rose 2.2% and the PPI 0.3% year-on-year. Thus, you can see that prices were generally experiencing some modest growth while also stabilizing. Despite a slight fall, China's economic growth, at 6.3% from January-June, still ranked among the top performers when compared to other major economies. Therefore, it is groundless to say that China may face either a deflationary or an inflationary risk. Thank you.
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