SCIO briefing on China's economy Q1-Q3 2019
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E-mail China.org.cn, October 19, 2019
Speaker:
Mao Shengyong, director general of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the NBS spokesperson
Chairperson:
Shou Xiaoli, Press Bureau of the State Council Information Office (SCIO)
Date:
Oct. 18, 2019
Shou Xiaoli, Press Bureau of the SCIO:
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to this SCIO press conference where we are releasing China's economic data. We are pleased to welcome Mr. Mao Shengyong, spokesperson of the NBS and director general of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics at the NBS, to introduce details of the economic performance in the first three quarters of 2019 and answer some of your questions.
Now, I'll give the floor to Mr. Mao.
Mao Shengyong:
Thank you. Ladies, gentlemen, and media friends, good morning. I'll first give you a brief introduction of China's economic performance in the first three quarters of 2019, and then answer some of your questions.
The national economy maintained overall stability and made steady progress in restructuring in the first three quarters of 2019.
Faced with mounting risks and challenges both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general working guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, insisted on following the new development philosophy, continued to deepen supply-side structural reform, strengthened counter-cyclical adjustment, endeavored to maintain stability in such areas as employment, the financial sector, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment and market expectations, and spared no effort to implement various policies in an effective way. As a result, the national economy maintained overall stability, with an optimized economic structure and improving living standards.
According to preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 69.78 trillion yuan (about US$9.87 trillion) in the first three quarters, an increase of 6.2% at comparable prices year on year. Specifically, the growth rate was 6.4% in the first quarter, 6.2% in the second and 6% in the third. The added value achieved by the primary industry was 4.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%; the secondary industry 27.79 trillion yuan, up 5.6%; and the tertiary industry 37.69 trillion yuan, up 7%.
1. Agricultural production enjoyed sound growth with autumn grain expecting a good harvest.
The total output of summer grain and early rice totaled 168.01 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 606,000 metric tons. The autumn grain has been growing well and another good harvest is expected. Total grain output in 2019 is expected to be above 650 million metric tons and achieve an increase in production. In the first three quarters, the added value of crop farming grew 4.3% year on year. The planting structure was further optimized. The sown area of quality rice and soybean was increased, while that of corn was reduced. In the first three quarters, the output of eggs grew 5.5% year on year and that of milk 2.5%. The total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 55.08 million metric tons, down 8.3% year on year. Specifically, the output of poultry, beef and mutton was 15.39 million metric tons, 4.58 million metric tons, and 3.3 million metric tons respectively, representing gains of 10.2%, 3.2% and 2.3%. Pork output was 31.81 million metric tons, down 17.2%.
2. Industrial production sustained growth with the proportion of high-tech manufacturing increasing.
The total added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.6% year on year in the first three quarters. An analysis by types of ownership showed that State-holding enterprises achieved growth of 4.7% year on year; that of shareholding enterprises was up 6.9%; and that of enterprises funded by foreign investors and investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan grew 1.4%. In terms of sectors, mining grew 4.6% year on year, manufacturing increased 5.9% and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased 7%. The added value of strategic emerging industries grew 8.4% year on year, 2.8 percentage points higher than industrial enterprises above designated size. That of high-tech manufacturing grew 8.7% year on year, 3.1 percentage points higher than industrial enterprises above designated size, accounting for 14.1% of that achieved by industrial enterprises above designated size, which was 0.3 percentage point higher than the first half of 2019. The output of solar cells and new energy automobiles grew 25.1% and 21.4% respectively year on year. In September, the total added value of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 5.8% year on year, 1.4 percentage points higher than that of August, or up 0.72% month on month.
In the first eight months, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 4.02 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year on year, the same figure as that of the first seven months. The profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.87%, the same as that achieved in the first seven months.
3. The service sector continued to show fast growth with modern services maintaining good momentum of development.
In the first three quarters, the service sector continued to maintain good growth momentum. The added value of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transport, storage and postal services, and financial intermediary services grew 19.8%, 8%, 7.4% and 7.1% respectively year on year. These figures were 12.8 percentage points, 1 percentage point, 0.4 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point higher than the level achieved by the tertiary sector as a whole. The Index of Services Production increased 7% year on year. Specifically, the Index of Services Production in September grew 6.7%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than that of August. In September, the business activity index for services stood at 53%, 0.5 percentage point higher than August. The business expectation index for services was 59.3%, thus remaining at a high level.
In the first eight months, the business revenue of service enterprises above designated size increased 9.5% year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than in the first seven months. Specifically, the business revenue of strategic emerging services, high-tech and technology services grew 12.1%, 11.9% and 11.6% respectively year on year, 2.6 percentage points, 2.4 percentage points, and 2.1 percentage points higher than service enterprises above designated size, thus maintaining a pattern of fast growth.
4. Market sales witnessed steady growth with fast sales of upgraded consumer goods.
In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 29.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year gain of 8.2%. Retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles grew 9.1%. Retail sales in urban areas reached 25.35 trillion yuan, up 8% year on year; sales in rural areas stood at 4.32 trillion yuan, up 9%. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of the catering industry was 3.26 trillion yuan, up 9.4%; the retail sales of goods totaled 26.41 trillion yuan, up 8%.
The sale of upgraded consumer goods witnessed fast growth. In the first three quarters, retail sales of smart household appliances and audio-video equipment, as well as wearable smart devices, by enterprises above designated size grew 41.6% and 11.1% respectively year on year. In the first three quarters, national per capita consumption expenditure of households was calculated at 15,464 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. Specifically, the per capita consumption expenditure on services grew 10.2%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the overall figure for per capita consumption expenditure. In September, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 7.8%, 0.3 percentage point higher than August.
In the first three quarters, online retail sales reached 7.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.8%. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 5.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.5%, accounting for 19.5% of total consumer goods sales.
5. Investment maintained stable growth and investment in high-tech industries grew fast.
In the first three quarters, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 46.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.4%. Specifically, private investment reached 26.48 trillion yuan, up 4.7%. Investment in the primary industry dropped 2.1%; the secondary industry up 2%, of which, manufacturing increased 2.5%; the tertiary industry up 7.2%, of which, infrastructure grew 4.5%. Investment in high-tech manufacturing grew 12.6% year on year, 7.2 percentage points higher than that achieved in total investment; investment in high-tech services grew 13.8%, 8.4 percentage points higher than that of total investment.
In the first three quarters, total investment in real estate development was 9.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.5%. The floor space of commercial buildings sold was 1.19 billion square meters, down 0.1% year on year. The total sales of commercial buildings stood at 11.15 trillion yuan, up 7.1%.
6. Imports and exports scaled up and the trade structure continued to optimize.
The total value of imports and exports of goods in the first three quarters was 22.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Specifically, the total value of exports was 12.48 trillion yuan, up 5.2%; total value of imports was 10.43 trillion yuan, down 0.1%. The trade balance was 2.05 trillion yuan in surplus, a year-on-year growth of 44.2%.
The trade structure was further optimized. The imports and exports of general trade grew 4.8%, accounting for 59.5% of the total value, 1.1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year; the export of mechanical and electrical products grew 4.7%, accounting for 58.1% of the total export value. The imports and exports by private enterprises grew 10.4%, accounting for 42.3% of total value, 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, the total value of imports and exports was 2.78 trillion yuan, down 3.3% year on year. Of this total, the value of exports was 1.53 trillion yuan, down 0.7%; and that of imports was 1.25 trillion yuan, down 6.2%. In the first three quarters, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 9.09 trillion yuan, up 2.4% year on year.
7. Growth of consumer price increased and the producer prices for industrial products maintained the same level year on year.
In the first three quarters, the consumer price index rose 2.5% year on year. Specifically, there was a gain of 2.4% in urban areas and 2.6% in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol rose 5.1% year on year; clothing 1.8%; housing 1.7%; articles and services for daily use 1%. Prices for transportation and communication services fell 1.5%; education, culture and recreation rose 2.4%; medical services and health care up 2.5%; other articles and services grew 3%. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, grain prices went up 0.5%, pork up 21.3%, and fresh vegetables up 5.1%. The core CPI excluding the price of food and energy rose 1.7% year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the first half of 2019. In September, the consumer price index was 3% higher year on year, 0.2 percentage point higher than August, or up 0.9% month on month.
The producer prices for industrial products in the first three quarters remained at the same level year on year. The producer prices for industrial products in September were down 1.2% year on year, or up 0.1% month on month. In the first three quarters, the purchase prices for industrial products dropped 0.3% year on year. In September, the figure was down 1.7% year on year, but up 0.2% month on month.
8. Employment was generally stable and rural migrant workers increased.
In the first three quarters, newly increased employed people in urban areas totaled 10.97 million, accounting for 99.7% of the year's target. In September, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.2%, the same as the previous month. Specifically, the surveyed unemployment rate of population aged from 25 to 59 was 4.6%, 0.6 percentage point lower than the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2%, the same as the previous month. In September, employees of enterprises worked an average of 46.7 hours per week. At the end of the third quarter, the number of rural migrant workers reached 183.36 million, 2.01 million more than the same period last year, and up 1.1%.
9. Resident income rose basically in step with economic growth and the income growth of rural residents outpaced that of urban residents.
In the first three quarters, the nationwide per capita disposable income was 22,882 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.8% year on year, or a real growth of 6.1% after deducting price factors, basically in step with economic growth. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 31,939 yuan, a real growth of 5.4%. The per capita disposable income of rural households was 11,622 yuan, up 6.4% in real terms. The per capita disposable income of urban households was 2.75 times that of rural households, 0.03 less than the same period last year. The median level of nationwide per capita disposable income was 19,882 yuan, a nominal increase of 9% year on year.
10. Key reforms achieved solid progress and the economic structure was adjusted and optimized.
Supply-side structural reform continued to deepen. In the third quarter, the industrial capacity utilization rate nationwide reached 76.4%, the same as that of the second quarter. Specifically, the capacity utilization rates of both the manufacture of computers, communications and other electronic equipment and the manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products were 1.1 percentage points higher than the second quarter. By the end of September, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 493.46 million square meters, 4.38 million square meters less than a month earlier, and down 7.2% compared with the same period last year. The asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size at the end of August stood at 56.8%, 0.5 percentage point lower than the same period last year. In the first three quarters, investment in weak areas like ecological protection and treatment of environment pollution and education grew 40% and 18.5% respectively year on year, which was 34.6 percentage points and 13.1 percentage points higher than that of overall investment.
Solid efforts were made to advance the "three critical battles" of preventing and defusing financial risks, conducting targeted poverty eradication and controlling pollution. At the end of August, the balance of local government debt stood at 21.41 trillion yuan, which was within the limit approved by the National People's Congress. Efforts on targeted poverty eradication were enhanced and more effects were delivered, with the per capita disposable income for rural households in impoverished areas maintaining fast growth. The work of pollution prevention and control was continuously advanced. According to preliminary estimates, in the first three quarters, the share of consumption of clean energy such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power in total energy consumption was 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The energy consumption per unit GDP went down 2.7% year on year.
The economic structure was adjusted and optimized. In the first three quarters, the added value achieved by the tertiary sector accounted for 54% of GDP — 0.6 percentage point higher than last year, and 14.2 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry — contributing 60.6% to GDP growth, 24.3 percentage points higher than the secondary industry. Of industrial enterprises above designated size, strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries maintained fast growth. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 60.5%. Service consumption took up 50.6% of households' final consumption expenditure, 0.7 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Steady progress was recorded in implementing major regional development strategies and a new pattern of coordinated and integrated regional development is taking shape.
Generally speaking, the national economy maintained overall stability in the first three quarters. However, we must be aware that given the complicated and severe economic conditions both at home and abroad, slowing global economic growth, and increasing external instability and uncertainties, the economy is under mounting downward pressure. In the next stage, under the guidance of the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we should heighten the sense of urgency and responsibility, focus on running our own affairs well, take development as the top priority, and place stable growth and reasonable range of economic development in a more prominent position. We should seek impetus from reform and opening up as well as innovation, tap the potential by expanding domestic market demands, foster new effective investment and consumer demands to improve living standards, boost the resilience of development, withstand downward pressures, and take coordinated steps to achieve steady growth, advance reform, make structural adjustments, improve living standards, guard against risks and maintain stability, so as to facilitate sustained and sound economic development. Thank you.
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