SCIO briefing on China's economy Q1-Q3 2019
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E-mail China.org.cn, October 19, 2019
South China Morning Post:
The latest data shows GDP growth in the third quarter slowed down to 6% from a year earlier. Will it continue to slow down, falling below 6% in the fourth quarter? How would you analyze it? Thank you.
Mao Shengyong:
Thanks for your question. As the GDP growth in the third quarter was lower than that in the second, people will naturally be paying close attention to the figure in the next quarter. It is highly possible that the global economy will continue slowing down in the next stage as I said just now, as some leading indicators and forecasts from international agencies are not that optimistic. Despite this, if we look beneath the surface, there are lots of favorable factors supporting China's economy in the fourth quarter, with some recent indicators showing such encouraging signs and new changes. For example, growth of the manufacturing PMI accelerated in September, as reflected in the new orders index and the production index. Investment in infrastructure has picked up in the last two months. The PPI figures rose both in August and September compared with the previous month, despite declining year-on-year. The production and sales of automobiles, which has a large impact on the total production and sales, showed a narrowing decline in the recent two months. Those are all good signals, and, given the relatively low base in the last fourth quarter, I think the economy will remain stable. Thank you.
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