SCIO briefing on China's economy Q1-Q3 2019
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E-mail China.org.cn, October 19, 2019
Bloomberg:
I have three questions. First, the data just now released shows that consumer spending contributed 60.5% to the GDP growth. How much did investment and imports and exports contribute? Second, as just mentioned, the growth of per capita disposable income is basically in line with the overall economic growth, but not faster than it. Then, will it be more difficult to shift from investment-driven growth to being driven by consumer spending? The third question is about investment in infrastructure. As mentioned, the local governments' special bonds have almost been used up. Will the investment in infrastructure slow down in the fourth quarter?
Mao Shengyong:
Thank you for the three questions. The first is about the contribution rate of the three major demands to the GDP growth. In the first three quarters of this year, final consumer spending contributed 60.5%, capital formation 19.8% and net exports of goods and services 19.6%. Those should add up to 100%, but the rounding-off leads to some nuance.
On your second question, per capita disposable income grew by 6.1% in real terms in the first three quarters, basically keeping pace with the 6.2% overall economic growth. If you look at per capita figures, disposable income grew faster than GDP growth. In terms of nominal growth, we saw a satisfactory rise of per capita disposable income by 8.8% in the first three quarters. As for whether we are able to shift from investment-driven growth to that driven by consumer spending, we have already made considerable progress in recent years in adjusting the pattern of economic development. Our economy has relied more on domestic demand gradually, in which consumer spending played an increasingly fundamental role. The process is on the go. In addition, there is also a shift of effort from expanding the scale of production factors to increasing total factor productivity with technological progress. Those facts show that China's economy is undergoing an obvious transformation and upgrading.
Your third question is whether there is a basis for the investment in infrastructure to rebound in the fourth quarter. There are several ways of expanding infrastructure investment. On the one hand, we increased the size of local governments' special bond issuance this year, and allocated some funds ahead of schedule. We are preparing to allocate some of the next year's inputs within this year. At the same time, we should encourage private capital to become more engaged. Overall, there is a good trend for us to see a rebounding infrastructure investment. Thank you.
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