SCIO briefing on China's economy Q1-Q3 2019
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E-mail China.org.cn, October 19, 2019
Reuters:
My question is about employment. Although economic growth fell to 6.0% in the third quarter, there was no obvious increase in the survey-based unemployment rate, which was 5.2% in September, slightly lower than July. Can you explain why?
Mao Shengyong:
In general, employment and economic growth are highly correlated. Why did the economic growth slow down, while the employment situation remained generally stable? This question can be answered from several perspectives.
First, despite a slight slowdown, the economic growth rate remained relatively good from a global perspective. In addition, with the growth in size, the economic increment brought about by every one percentage point increase is also growing. And with the growth of economic increment, the number of job opportunities able to be absorbed is also growing.
Second, there is also a close relationship between the employment situation and the change of industrial structures. As mentioned before, the service industry has maintained relatively rapid growth, and the proportion of added value of the sector in GDP continues to increase. The sector as a whole is like a reservoir of employment. With such an industrial structure, the capacity to absorb employment is constantly increasing. In other words, the employment elasticity of economic growth has increased, which is another important reason.
Third, the government has launched a series of active employment policies. For example, we have advanced business startups and innovation initiatives as well as other more flexible approaches to create new jobs. We have paid particular attention to the employment of key groups, for example, by increasing professional training. Such a series of policies have achieved good results.
Fourth, new industries, sectors and business models are continuously emerging and growing, which also helps provide more job opportunities.
Based on these factors, although our economic growth has slowed down slightly, the overall employment situation remains stable. However, we should also be aware of some structural contradictions. For example, the survey-based urban unemployment rate is relatively stable, but there are still some areas where the unemployment rate is relatively high; the unemployment rate for young people is higher than the overall unemployment rate, and it is relatively difficult for college graduates to find jobs. The current structural contradiction is that, on the one hand, it is difficult for enterprises to recruit workers; on the other hand, it is difficult for some college graduates to find jobs. In general, the employment market is relatively stable, but we should continue to pay close attention to structural contradictions.
Thank you.
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