SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in 2019
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E-mail China.org.cn, January 21, 2020
Bloomberg:
I have two questions. First, can you please tell us the fourth quarter's numbers for the contribution of net exports, consumption and investment? What was the nominal GDP growth, and what was the GDP deflator? My second question is that, you said the full year final consumption contribution was 57.8%, which is below 61.4% in the third quarter and way below the levels in 2018. Is that decline because real disposable income per capita is below real GDP growth? What will you do to increase real incomes in 2020 so that consumption can expand and how will it help to re-balance the economy? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
You are concerned with the contribution rate of consumption, investment, and import and export to economic growth in the fourth quarter as well as for the year 2019. Since these three aspects complement one another, a falling statistic will inevitably lead to a rising one. As you may notice, the final consumption expenditure in the first three quarters constituted 60.5% of economic growth, meanwhile the contribution rate of the final consumption expenditure through the year was 57.8%, lower than 60%. The total capital formation contributed to 31.2% of economic growth last year, showing a rising trend. The net exports of goods and services, that is, the exports of goods and services minus imports, was 11% in 2019. Compared with the statistics in the first three quarters, the data in the fourth quarter is different. Nevertheless, consumption is still the biggest driving force for China's economic growth, and its contribution rate stood at around 60% last year.
Regarding your second question, as I mentioned just now, the nominal growth rate of residents' disposable income per capita was relatively high. However, due to the expansion of the CPI last year, the actual growth rate was 5.8% in real terms. I mentioned earlier that the growth rate of GDP per capita also stood at 5.8%, thus these two indicators shared the same growth rate.
You are also concerned about trends in the consumer sector in 2020. Looking at the data in 2019, we found that final consumer expenditure contributed nearly 60% to overall economic growth. Consumption has played a fundamental role in China's economic development and is the primary driving force for China's economic growth. Looking forward to 2020, the steady growth of residents' income will drive the improvement of consumption capacity. With the continuous upgrade of the consumption structure of residents, consumption will continue to expand, and as reform in this area is further advanced, the consumption environment will only continue to improve. Coupled with the improvement in market expectations and the rise in consumer willingness to consume, it is foreseeable that the fundamental role of consumption in China's economic development will further grow. Thank you.
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