SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in 2019
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E-mail China.org.cn, January 21, 2020
Reuters:
According to the second paragraph on the first page of your report, during the course of last year, GDP growth in China slid from 6.4 percent to 6 percent. What is the government going to do to stop this slide? Also, what's your prediction for what GDP growth will be this year? And finally, a trade deal has just been reached between China and the U.S., however, according to reports, many of the tariffs will remain at least until after the US election which will take place towards the end of this year. How worried are you about the effect of the remaining tariffs on China's economy? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
Seasonal fluctuations in GDP are common. GDP data released by other countries in the world can show even more volatility. To measure GDP growth, you can use not only year-on-year and month-on-month, but also annualized rate of quarter-on-quarter change and month-on-month change. The statistics you have observed with growth dropping from 6.4 percent in the first quarter to 6.2 percent in the second and 6.0 percent in the third and fourth quarters are based on a year-on-year method. However, despite the slide, they have remained within an appropriate range, given that China's economy is still facing downward pressure. To lessen the pressure, the Chinese government has made notable progress by securing employment, defusing financial risks, ensuring the stability of foreign trade, overseas capital and investments and safeguarding confidence in its economic forecast. As a result, the 6.1-percent growth achieved last year has ranked top among the economies with a size above $1 trillion. That is amazing indeed. Meanwhile, we have transformed our economic growth from one that focuses on speed to that of quality, seeking quality growth within a reasonable range.
The economic growth in 2020 as you mentioned will maintain sound momentum as its trajectory towards a promising future in the longer term remains unchanged. Despite the downward pressure we have faced, actions will be taken to give a boost to the economy. Complying with the principles of the Central Economic Work Conference, the governments at all levels will make sure that all the policies will be fully put into effect. As we run a market of 120 million people, we'll work concertedly to press ahead with economic growth that focuses on quality and efficiency. Therefore, we can predict that this year's economy can achieve stable growth.
The phase-one economic and trade agreement between China and the United States, as you have asked about, has been reached reciprocally after rounds of negotiations on a fair and equal basis. This did not only result in a more positive prediction of China's economy but also that of the United States and the rest of the world. Positive reactions can also be observed from global capital markets as well as in analyses and forecasts by major international economic organizations. As you know, the International Monetary Fund has forecast that China's economic growth will increase by 0.2 percentage points in 2020.
Regarding the tariffs, the two countries have adopted measures to exempt and rule out some custom duties since last October, creating ways for the economy and bilateral trade to run normally. We'll fully implement the economic and trade deal reached in the first phase, which is conducive to deepening Sino-US economic and trade cooperation, securing the economic and trade development of China and other counties and ultimately benefitting the stable growth of the global trade and economy. Thank you.
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