SCIO briefing on China's economic growth in the first three quarters of 2020
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E-mail China.org.cn, October 20, 2020
Third, service sector recovered steadily and modern service industries grew well.
In the first three quarters, the service sector witnessed steady recovery. In the third quarter, the total value added of the tertiary industry grew by 4.3%, which was 2.4 percentage points faster than in the second quarter. In the first three quarters, in the modern service industries, the value added for information transmission, software and information technology services, and financial services grew by 15.9% and 7% respectively, or 1.4 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. The Index of Services Production fell by 2.6% year on year, a decline which narrowed by 3.5 percentage points compared with that of the first half of the year; specifically, that of September grew by 5.4%, 1.4 percentage points faster than that of August. In the first eight months of this year, the business revenue of service enterprises above designated size dropped by 2.5% year-on-year, a decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared with that of the first seven months; specifically, that of information transmission, software and information technology services went up by 11.4%. In September, the Business Activity Index for services was 55.2%, 0.9 percentage points higher than that of August. In particular, the Business Activity Index for transportation, telecommunication, internet and software, and accommodation and catering all remained above 60%. In terms of market expectations, the Business Activities Expectation Index for Services was 62.2%, 0.9 percentage points higher than in August.
Liu Aihua:
Fourth, market sales improved significantly with online retail sales of physical goods sustaining fast growth.
In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 27.33 trillion yuan, down by 7.2% year-on-year, a decline narrowed by 4.2 percentage points compared with that of the first half of this year; specifically, that of the third quarter grew by 0.9%, the first positive quarterly growth in 2020. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.52 trillion yuan, up by 3.3% year on year, and 2.8 percentage points faster than that of August, maintaining growth for two consecutive months. In terms of different regions, retail sales in urban areas in the first three quarters reached 23.68 trillion yuan, marking a decline of 7.3%, and retail sales in rural areas reached 3.64 trillion yuan, a decline of 6.7%. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income from catering was 2.52 trillion yuan, down by 23.9%; and retail sales of goods was 24.81 trillion yuan, down by 5.1%. Upgraded consumer goods grew quickly. Retail sales of telecommunication equipment, sports and recreational goods, and cosmetics grew by 7.2%, 6.8% and 4.5% respectively. In the first three quarters, online retail sales reached 8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and 2.4 percentage points faster than that of the first half of this year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods hit 6.64 trillion yuan, up by 15.3%, and accounting for 24.3% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.
Fifth, investment in fixed assets shifted from negative to positive growth and investment in high-tech industries and social sector continued to rise.
In the first three quarters, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 43.65 trillion yuan, up by 0.8% year-on-year and shifting from negative to positive for the first time in 2020, while that of the first half of this year was down by 3.1%. Specifically, investment in infrastructure grew by 0.2%, shifting from negative to positive for the first time this year, while that of the first half of 2020 was down by 2.7%; investment in manufacturing dropped by 6.5%, a decline narrowed by 5.2 percentage points compared with that of the first half of 2020; and investment in real estate development grew by 5.6%, 3.7 percentage points faster than that of the first half of 2020. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 1.17 billion square meters, down by 1.8%, a decline narrowed by 6.6 percentage points compared with that of the first half of 2020; and total sales of commercial buildings reached 11.56 trillion yuan, up by 3.7%, while that of the first half of 2020 fell by 5.4%. By industry, investment in the primary industry rose by 14.5%, a growth of 10.7 percentage points higher than that of the first half of the year; the secondary industry fell by 3.4%, a decline narrowed by 4.9 percentage points compared with that of the first half of the year; and the tertiary industry increased by 2.3%, while that of the first half was down by 1%. Private investment reached 24.39 trillion yuan, down by 1.5%, a decline narrowed by 5.8 percentage points compared with that of the first half of 2020. Investment in the high-tech industry grew by 9.1%, which was 2.8 percentage points faster than that of the first half of the year. Of this total, investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 9.3% and 8.7% respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, investment in pharmaceutical manufacturing, and the manufacturing of computers and office devices grew by 21.2% and 9.3% respectively. In terms of high-tech services, investment in e-commerce services, information services and services for the commercialization of research findings grew by 20.4%, 16.9% and 16.8%. Investment in social sectors grew by 9.2%, which was 3.9 percentage points higher than that of the first half of 2020. Of the total, investment in the health sector and education sector grew by 20.3% and 12.7% respectively, or 5.1 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points faster than that of the first half of 2020. In September, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 3.37% month on month.
Liu Aihua:
Sixth, imports and exports of goods shifted from decline to growth and trade structure continued to optimize.
In the first three quarters, the total value of imports and exports reached 23.12 trillion yuan, up by 0.7% year-on-year, shifting from negative to positive for the first time in 2020; specifically, that of the third quarter grew by 7.5% year on year, while that of the second quarter was down by 0.2%. The value of exports rose 1.8% to 12.71 trillion yuan, while the value of imports dropped 0.6% to 10.4 trillion yuan. The trade balance was 2.3 trillion yuan in surplus. In September, the total value of imports and exports was 3.06 trillion yuan, up by 10% year on year. The value of exports was 1.66 trillion yuan, up by 8.7%; and the value of imports was 1.4 trillion yuan, up by 11.6%. The trade structure continued to optimize. In the first three quarters, the import and export of general trade accounted for 60.2% of the total value of imports and exports, 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 3.2%, while that of the first half of 2020 was down by 2.3%. Imports and exports by private enterprises grew by 10.2%, accounting for 46.1% of all imports and exports, which was 4 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
Seventh, growth of consumer prices fell and producer prices for industrial products declined year-on-year.
In the first three quarters, the national Consumer Price Index increased by 3.3% year on year, 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the first half of 2020. Specifically, prices rose by 3.1% in urban areas and by 4.1% in rural areas. In September, consumer prices were up by 1.7% year on year, rising by 0.2% month on month. Grouped in terms of commodity categories, in the first three quarters, the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 10.9% year on year; clothing was down by 0.2%; housing dropped by 0.3%; articles and services for daily use were up by 0.1%; transportation and communication fell by 3.5%; education, culture and recreation rose by 1.4%; medical services and healthcare were up by 1.9%; and other articles and services increased by 5%. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, prices for grain rose by 1.2%; fresh vegetables increased by 6.1%; and pork increased by 82.4%, down 21.9 percentage points compared with the first half of this year. Core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy went up by 0.9%.
In the first three quarters, producer prices for industrial products decreased by 2% year on year. Specifically, prices in September were down by 2.1% year-on-year, or up by 0.1% month on month. In the first three quarters, the purchasing prices for industrial producers fell by 2.6% year-on-year; specifically, in September, prices were down by 2.3% year-on-year, or up by 0.4% month-on-month.
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