SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in first quarter of 2021
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 21, 2021
First, the overall agricultural production was steady, and pig production recovered significantly.
In the first quarter, the value added of agriculture (crop farming) witnessed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with an average two-year growth of 3.4%. With the current favorable climatic conditions in major farming areas, spring ploughing and sowing progressed well, and the winter wheat grew slightly better than average. In the first quarter, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 22 million metric tons, up by 21.4% year on year. Of this total, pork output was up by 31.9%, milk was up by 8.5% and eggs were down by 2.1%. Pig production recovered significantly. At the end of the first quarter, the number of pigs registered in stock was 415.95 million, up by 29.5% year on year, among which 43.18 million were breeding sows, up by 27.7%.
Second, industrial production rebounded steadily, and the manufacturing industry demonstrated strong growth.
The total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 24.5% year on year in the first quarter of 2021, or up by 2.01% quarter on quarter, with an average two-year growth of 6.8%. Of this total, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size in March increased by 14.1% year on year, up by 0.60% month on month. An analysis by type of ownership showed that in the first quarter, the value added of state holding enterprises was up by 16.9% year on year; that of share-holding enterprises was up by 23.7% year on year; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was up by 29.2% year on year; and that of private enterprises was up by 29.7% year on year. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining increased by 10.1% year on year, with an average two-year growth of 4.0%; that of manufacturing increased by 27.3% year on year, with an average two-year growth of 6.9%; and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased by 15.9% year on year, with an average two-year growth of 4.8%. The value added of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 39.9% and 31.2% year on year, respectively, with average two-year growth of 9.7% and 12.3%, respectively. Specifically, the production of new-energy vehicles, industrial robots, excavating and shoveling machinery, microcomputers and integrated circuits all witnessed year-on-year growth of over 60%, with the average two-year growth exceeding 19%. In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 51.9%, staying above the threshold for 13 months in a row; and the Production and Operation Expectation Index was 58.5%.
From January to February, profits from industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 1,114.0 billion yuan, 2.79 times that of the first two months of last year, or an average two-year growth of 31.2%; and the profit rate of the business revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 6.60%, which was 3.15 percentage points higher than that of the first two months in 2020.
Third, the service sector experienced restorative growth, and market expectations were positive.
The first quarter witnessed a steady recovery of the service sector. Of this total, the value added of transportation, storage and postal services and that of real estate services grew by 32.1% and 21.4% year on year, respectively, with average two-year growth of 6.6% and 6.8%, respectively. In March, the Index of Services Production grew by 25.3% year on year, with an average two-year growth of 6.8%. In the first two months, business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 37.8% year on year, with an average two-year growth of 10.0%. Of this total, the business revenue of information transmission, software and information technology services and that of scientific research and technology services grew by 35.0% and 47.8% year on year, respectively, with average two-year growth of 17.4% and 11.5%, respectively. In March, the Business Activity Index for services stood at 55.2%, which was 4.4 percentage points higher than that in February. The Business Activity Index for railway transportation, air transportation, telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services, software and information technology services, monetary and financial services stayed within the high expansion range of 60.0% and above; the Business Activity Index for accommodation, leasing and business services and resident services hit hard by the spread of COVID-19 in some areas at the beginning of the year rebounded to the expansion range. From the perspective of market expectations, the Business Activity Expectation Index for services stood at 62.9%, remaining within the high expansion range of 60.0% and above for two consecutive months.
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