SCIO press conference on China's economic performance in H1 2021
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 21, 2021
Yicai:
Since the beginning of 2021, prices of bulk commodities have been increasing, which has had an impact on the middle-and-down stream of the industrial chain and caused small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to come under pressure in regards to earning profits. What are your views on price trend of bulk commodities and how should SMEs respond to this? In addition, prices of pork are continuously declining and have become the main drag for CPI. Do you believe that the pork prices have bottomed out? How do you view inflation throughout the year? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your questions. You talked about at least two issues: one is about price trends among bulk commodities, and the other is related to the CPI trend.
In regard to price trend of bulk commodities: in the first six months, China's producer price index (PPI) growth averaged 5.1% year-on-year, 3 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter, according to current data. The accelerated PPI growth in the second quarter was mainly affected by the following factors: first, the economy is continuing recovering, while demand is expanding; second, it was influenced by the spike in prices of bulk commodities on the international market. This June, the global energy price index rose 92.6% year-on-year, and the non-energy price index climbed by 43.2%, with both being high; third, it was impacted by a low base over the same period last year. Affected by the pandemic, from February 2020, the PPI saw consecutive falls throughout the second quarter of last year, and the figure decreased by over 3% year-on-year for each month of the quarter. Therefore, the year-on-year growth of the PPI obviously rose in the second quarter of this year, bringing mounting cost pressures to middle-and-down stream enterprises and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Judging from the general situation, China boasts a strong industrial productive capacity and a sufficient supplying power in industrial products, although there remains some upward pressure caused by the surging prices of bulk commodities on the international market. Meanwhile, initial effects have been appearing as some departments recently implemented policies on safeguarding supply and stabilizing prices for bulk commodities. In June, the PPI rose 8.8% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage point slower than that was recorded in May. Therefore, the impacts of PPI growth can be generally controlled.
Your second question relates to CPI trends and the prediction of pork prices. The CPI went up moderately by 0.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, dropping 3.3 percentage points compared to the same period in 2020, and maintained its relatively low level over the past few years. In June, the consumer prices went up by 1.1% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage point slower than in May. Declining food prices may be the main reason for the drop in CPI growth rate. Food prices decreased 0.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, while the figure in the same period of the last year was an increase of 16.2%. Declining food prices pushed down consumer inflation in the first half of the year by 0.04 percentage point and became a main influencing factor in price fluctuations. Pork prices, as you mentioned, have been continuously decreasing for nine consecutive months, with an average drop of 19.3% in the first half of the year, pushing down consumer inflation by 0.45 percentage point. We could say that the consumer prices rose mildly in the first half of the year, with the food prices, pork prices in particular, being the main reason for the slower CPI growth.
Non-food prices, meanwhile, rose 0.7% in the first half of the year, demonstrating a similar scale with the same period of last year, pushing up the CPI by 0.57 percentage point. Energy price surges were most prominent among non-food prices, with gasoline and diesel prices rising 8.5% and 9.2% respectively in the first half of the year, which jointly push up the CPI by 0.24 percentage point. Mild CPI growth in the first half of this year resulted from the declining food prices as well as a stable growth in non-food prices.
Regarding the three categories affecting CPI in the following phases: first, food prices. China reaped a bumper summer harvest in 2021 as we noted in yesterday's announcement, and grain prices are expected to be stable this year. Pork prices are expected to remain stable as hog production continues to recover and the country's purchase and storage policies provide support. Generally speaking, food prices will face mild upward pressure under the background of a bumper summer harvest and stable pork prices.
Second, the prices of industrial consumer goods. Price hikes in bulk commodities on the international market can drive a price increase in some industrial consumer goods. However, in the long run, the market supply of industrial consumer goods will remain generally sufficient, and the prices will not generate a large-scale increase as China boasts a strong supply and industrial production capacity as well as a complete industrial system .
Third, service prices. Service prices in the first half of this year were continuously affected by the sporadic resurgence of COVID-19 cases and rose 0.3% year-on-year, remaining at a low point in recent years. In the next stage, service prices will resurge to a certain extent as the nation's pandemic prevention and control situation continues to improve; the consumption demands in catering, accommodation, and tourism gradually recover; and the market gains more confidence as well as residents' income growth rates accelerate. But in general, service prices are expected to generate a small-scale increase considering the impact of regular epidemic prevention and control.
Taking into consideration development trends in the above three categories, the prediction that prices will register a moderate rise this year is based on necessary basis and conditions, so is meeting the consumer inflation target of around 3% for the year. Thank you!
Xing Huina:
Due to the time limit, we will take the final two questions.
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