SCIO press conference on China's economic performance in H1 2021
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 21, 2021
CNBC:
My question is about the impact of data in the second half of 2021, such as whether exports will continue to grow. We saw growth in the automobile consumption, which is somewhat different from June's data for the industry. What are the main factors behind this discrepancy? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Thank you. Let me clarify the two questions. The first is about the estimation of the growth of foreign trade. The second is about the development of the automobile industry. First of all, with regard to foreign trade outlook, relevant departments announced the data for the first half of this year a few days ago. The figures showed that China's foreign trade in the first half registered rapid growth, which is a result of many factors, including the sustainable economic recovery both at home and abroad and a relatively low base last year. The country's foreign trade rose 27.1% year on year in the first six months, an increase of 22.8% from the same period in 2019 and a two-year average growth rate of over 10%. Foreign trade in the first half of this year performed well. As for the second half, we need to pay attention to two aspects: on the one hand, we will face a certain impact on the foreign trade environment resulting from the complex situation of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the relatively high pressure of rising prices in bulk commodities, as well as the unstable external environment and many uncertain factors. On the other hand, there are more favorable conditions for foreign trade. At present, global demand is recovering, and the domestic demand is rebounding. Meanwhile, Chinese enterprises' ability to adjust to external changes has increased over the years, showing strong resilience in development. Taking these factors into full consideration, China's foreign trade is expected to maintain rapid growth for the entire year.
Second, regarding your question about the automobile industry, data in the first six months showed that, despite having fallen in the last two months, the added value of the automobile industry in the first half of 2021 increased by 21.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate increased by 8.6%. Both are faster than the growth rate of China's value-added industrial output. However, the growth of the automobile industry is also facing certain constraints spanning from chip shortages to policy adjustments, which might bring about short-term constrains such as long supply cycles and rising costs. Nevertheless, for now, there is still a gap in car ownership per thousand people between China and developed countries, which shows the automobile industry still has plenty of room to grow. In the short run, driven by the signals of rising demand and prices, the production of integrated circuits will gradually step up in spite of the complicated external environment and the time-consuming recovery of the global production capacity. Generally speaking, we assume that the automobile industry will maintain relatively fast growth in the long run. Thank you.
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