SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in H1 2021
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 22, 2021
Speakers:
Yao Jingyuan, special researcher of the Counselor's Office of the State Council
Xu Xianchun, professor at the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, and director of China Data Center at Tsinghua University
Chairperson:
Xing Huina, deputy head of the Press Bureau of the State Council Information Office (SCIO) and spokesperson for the SCIO
Date:
July 15, 2021
Xing Huina:
Friends from the media, good afternoon. Welcome to this briefing held by the State Council Information Office (SCIO). This morning, the SCIO held a press conference to brief you on China's economic performance in the first half of 2021, which attracted a lot of media attention. In order to help you gain a deeper understanding of the national economy, we are joined by two experts today who will give you an in-depth interpretation of the economic situation in the first half of this year.
Let me first introduce the two experts: Mr. Yao Jingyuan, special researcher of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, and Mr. Xu Xianchun, professor at the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University and director of China Data Center at Tsinghua University.
In today's briefing, we have invited the two experts to briefly introduce their interpretations of the economic situation in the first half of the year, and then take your questions.
Yao Jingyuan:
In the first half of the year, seeking progress while maintaining a stable performance has been an effective method in carrying out economic work. We can clearly see that the national economy in the first half of the year has continued its stable and sound performance. We can understand the situation from the following aspects:
First, the fundamental of the economic work lies in people's livelihoods. Therefore, whether the economy is performing well is first reflected in changes to people's livelihoods. With people's livelihoods as the priority, employment is the cornerstone of their wellbeing. In the first half of this year, 6.98 million new urban jobs were created in China, accounting for 63.5% of the annual target. I think this has been a very important achievement.
Second, the fundamental criterion of economic performance is economic benefits. How should we understand it? We often look at three sources of money: the corporate profits of companies; fiscal revenue of the government; and the income of urban and rural residents of ordinary people. First, let me talk about corporate profits. From January to May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 83.4% year on year, and the profits of service industry enterprises above designated size increased by 1.5 times year on year, which is a high point in recent years. The government's source of money is fiscal revenue. Under the circumstances when we cut taxes and fees substantially, government fiscal revenue in the first half of this year still increased by over 20% year on year. Third, the growth in income of urban and rural residents basically kept pace with that of the national economy. Another important point is that the per capita disposable income of rural residents continues to rise faster than that of urban residents. Therefore, an important result of economic growth in the first half of this year is that the income gap between urban and rural residents has narrowed, which is in line with the new development concept.
Furthermore, China's economic structure and growth model were optimized in the first half of the year. For example, the tertiary industry accounted for 53% of the entire national economy, and consumer spending contributed 61.7% to overall economic growth. The proportion of China's industry, especially the manufacturing industry, has been declining in recent years. The outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2015) clearly states that we must stabilize the proportion of manufacturing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Looking at the figure now, the proportion of manufacturing in the first half of the year increased by 1.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year, which is a very positive sign. The industrial structure has also been optimized. For example, the output of new energy vehicles has increased by more than 200%, industrial robots nearly 70%, and integrated circuits nearly 50%. Therefore, the industrial structure is optimizing, indicating that innovation is increasingly becoming an internal driving force of economic development. Another important thing is that energy consumption per unit of GDP fell in the first half of the year, which I think is not an easy achievement. Promoting peak emissions, carbon neutrality and green development have been hot topics. Energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 2% in the first half of this year.
Indeed, despite so many major achievements in the first half of the year, there are still some problems. These problems are reflected more in terms of the structure, such as employment. I just talked about employment. We completed 63.5% of the annual target for new urban employment in the first half of the year. However, from a structural point of view, there are difficulties for college students in finding jobs. We must pay attention to this structural problem. In the second half of the year, we should develop solid policies to help college students find jobs. Another structural problem is that although the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was not low, reaching 83.4%, the profits were made more in upstream industries, such as steel, coal, nonferrous metals, chemicals and petroleum, which is related to the rise of raw material prices in the upstream industries. In addition, from the perspective of the overall economic operations in the first half of the year, consumption should be further increased in the second half of the year so that it plays a greater role in economic growth. Looking forward to the second half of the year, I think that the main targets for China's economy set out at the beginning of the year can be successfully achieved. That is all from me for now.
Xing Huina:
Thank you, Mr. Yao Jingyuan. Next, I will give the floor to Mr. Xu Xianchun.
Xu Xianchun:
Thank you, Chairperson. Journalists, good afternoon.
It is a great pleasure and a privilege to attend this briefing and exchange my views with you. Just now, Mr. Yao shared his view on the economic situation in the first half of 2021 and the structural problems in the economy. I would like to talk about some features of the economic situation in the first half of the year from two perspectives: production and demand.
In terms of production, I would like to focus on four features. First, gross domestic product (GDP) grew faster in the first half of 2021 than it did over the same period last year, showing the momentum of continued economic recovery. According to data released by the NBS at the press conference this morning, in the first half of the year, China's GDP expanded 12.7% year-on-year. The figure puts average H1 growth for the past two years at 5.3%, a 0.3 percentage point faster than the two-year average of Q1 growth from the 2019 level. This shows that China's economic recovery continues to consolidate.
Second, the value added of the secondary industry increased faster than that of the primary and tertiary industries, which significantly powered economic growth. In the first half of 2021, the value added of the secondary industry went up 14.8% year-on-year, while the average H1 growth for the past two years stood at 6.1%. Both figures were higher than those of the primary and tertiary industries, supporting economic growth significantly in the first half of the year.
Third, the tertiary industry became the main driver of and biggest contributor to economic growth. In the first half of 2021, the value added of the tertiary industry went up 11.8% year-on-year. The figure puts the average growth for the first halves of the past two years at 4.9%. The value added of the tertiary industry accounted for 55.7% of GDP and contributed 53% of economic growth. According to my calculation, the tertiary industry drove economic growth up by 6.7 percentage points in the first half of the year – that is to say, the tertiary industry contributed to 6.7 percentage points of the 12.7% economic growth of the first half of the year.
Fourth, the secondary industry recovered relatively quickly, while the tertiary industry recovered relatively slowly in the first half of 2021. The average H1 growth for the past two years of the value added of the secondary industry stood at 6.1%, 1.1 percentage points higher than the two-year average of first-half growth from the 2019 level before COVID-19, which indicates a relatively fast recovery. In contrast, the average growth for the first halves of the past two years of the value added of the tertiary industry stood at 4.9%, 2.3 percentage points lower than the two-year average of H1 growth from the 2019 level, showing a slower recovery. In short, I think these are the four features, in terms of production, that deserve attention.
In terms of demand, I would like to focus on the following three features. First, there are three demands jointly driving economic growth, with consumer demand being the primary engine. In the first half of 2021, consumer demand contributed 61.7% to economic growth, and drove economic growth up by 7.8 percentage points – that is to say, consumer demand contributed to 7.8 percentage points of the 12.7% economic growth of the first half of the year. These figures contrast sharply with those of the same period last year. In the first quarter and first half of 2020, the economic growth was driven down by low consumer demand.
Second, the recovery of investment demand continues to consolidate and plays an important role in driving the economic growth. In the first half of 2021, investment demand contributed 19.2% toeconomic growth, and drove economic growth up by 2.4 percentage points.
Third, net export demand has shown a good performance, driving economic growth effectively. In the first half of 2021, net export demand contributed 19.1% to economic growth, and drove economic growth up by 2.4 percentage points.
To summarize, all the above are features of China's economic performance in the first half of this year in terms of production and demand. Thank you.
Xing Huina:
Thanks to the two speakers for their brief and clear explanations. Now, the floor is open for questions. Friends from the media, please state the news outlet you belong to and then ask your questions.
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