SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in H1 2021
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 22, 2021
Global Times:
I have two questions. The first question is: the data released this morning shows that China's economic growth rate in the first half of the year reached 12.7% — how do you view this level of economic growth compared to the rest of the world? What do you predict for the whole year? My second question is: Mr. Yao just mentioned the goal of building a moderately prosperous society and the second centenary goal. It took China only 40 years from proposing to build a moderately prosperous society to finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects, so I would like to know, what do you think of China's economic achievements over the past 40 years? Do you think China can continue to create such an economic miracle or achieve higher levels of growth on its path toward its second centenary goal? Thank you.
Xu Xianchun:
Thank you for your questions! Regarding your question of how to evaluate the 12.7% economic growth in the first half of the year in comparison to the rest of the world, here is my answer: the period most severely hit by the COVID-19 epidemic in China was the first quarter of last year, and it also affected the first half of last year, so the base number for the same period last year was low, and the 12.7% growth rate in the first half of this year appears to be relatively high. The epidemic has hit different countries at different times, so it is not easy to compare them directly. If you want to compare, I think it might be better to use the two-year average growth data proposed by the NBS. Why do I say this? We know that year-on-year growth has a base number issue. Although year-on-year growth also reflects the actual situation and is illuminating, it is a longitudinal comparison. If comparing the year-on-year growth rates between two quarters, an issue will arise as to whether the two base figures are comparable. For example, when the NBS releases the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size and the total retail sales of consumer goods, it often combines January and February figures. Why? Because in some years, the Lunar New Year occurred in January and others, February. If we compare two years back to back and the Lunar New Year period does not happen in the same calendar month, differences in the base numbers will be significant. The NBS puts these two months together in order to reduce the impact of incomparable base figures.
We know that the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on economic growth in each quarter of last year was different. Since the impact in the first quarter of last year was the greatest, the economy grew 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, which was actually due to the 6.8% drop during the same period last year. In the second quarter of last year, the growth rate returned to 3.2%, a rebound of 10 percentage points. Therefore, last year's base figures for the two quarters are completely different. One had a decrease of 6.8%, and the other had an increase of 3.2%. If the base numbers were not built on a comparable basis, the data will be incomparable. The NBS used 2019, which was not affected by the epidemic, as the base period for comparison and conducts two-year average figures. When the base numbers are comparable, the growth rates can be comparable. In the first quarter, GDP's two-year average growth rate was 5%, and in the second quarter, it was 5.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage point. This is comparable.
I believe the next step of economic growth will also be affected by the base number. For example, the economic growth in the third quarter of last year was 4.9%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the second quarter, but still lower than the growth for a normal year. That is to say, it was lower than the potential economic growth. Therefore, economic growth in the third quarter of this year is still based on a relatively low base and is likely to remain relatively high. Of course, there are many other uncertain factors, such as how the pandemic plays out overseas. China's current export situation is relatively good. An important reason is that there is a gap in supply and demand overseas due to the impact of the pandemic. China can make up for this gap because of the better control of the epidemic. After the pandemic situation improves, if overseas production resumes, this supply-demand gap may narrow, and China's exports may decrease. Taking these factors into consideration, I project that the economic growth rate in the third quarter will still be relatively fast, but it will definitely be lower than that in the second quarter of this year. The economy grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter of last year, exceeding the growth rate in the same period in 2019. So I estimate the growth rate in the fourth quarter this year may continue to decrease. This year, GDP growth will likely decline from quarter to quarter, but the annual growth rate will still remain relatively high, and will definitely exceed the economic growth rate of recent years.
I have preliminarily calculated that the 12.7% economic growth in the first half of the year will drive the annual economic growth by about 5.7 percentage points. Therefore, even if the economic growth rate declines in the second half of the year, I think it will still drive the annual economic growth by about 3 percentage point. The annual economic growth may be between 8.5-9%. Of course, this is entirely my personal prediction. I have also seen relevant international organizations such as the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimate that China's economic growth rate will exceed 8% in 2021. Some domestic institutions may have higher estimates. However, this is no cause for thinking that China's current economic growth is too high because this growth rate is based on a relatively low base figure from last year. If we remove the base figure factor, the two-year average growth rate is not really high. This is an estimate for this year's economic growth. It is entirely a personal estimate and is for reference only. Please correct me if I am wrong. Thank you!
Yao Jingyuan:
Your second question is about China's economic development. Over the last 40 years, in 1978, China's economy totaled 367.9 billion yuan, while last year the figure stood at 101 trillion yuan. Judging from this, I agree with you that China's economy has created a miracle over the past four decades. I once served in the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and to be honest, I was often asked whether the statistics were accurate. I gave them an accurate and undoubted indicator as an answer, which is the country's foreign exchange reserves.
I don't know if you are aware of this, China's foreign exchange reserves in 1978 were less than $200 million. While I was learning the history of the Communist Party of China some time ago, I read a story about Comrade Deng Xiaoping and his visit to France in 1975. The day before he returned to China, he recalled a small cafe in Paris where he had a cup of coffee during his work and studies in France. After he told the story, a staff member found the cafe was still there. Deng Xiaoping drank the coffee of that cafe again and mentioned that the French bread tasted good. At this time, someone suggested that before returning to China, he should buy some bread to take back as a small gift, but Comrade Deng Xiaoping said that it would cost foreign currency to buy bread. Even Comrade Deng Xiaoping had to worry about the foreign exchange when buying bread abroad at that time, but who needs to be concerned about it now? The latest data shows that as of June 30, China's foreign exchange reserves had reached $3,214 billion, a figure that can't be falsified. In the past 40 years, the country's foreign exchange reserves have increased tremendously from $200 million to $3,214 billion. Therefore, I think it's appropriate to describe China's economy in the past four decades as a miracle.
We have achieved the first centenary goal and are now marching towards the second, which will take about 30 years to fulfill. The 30 years are divided into two phases, with each one lasting 15 years. Our goal by 2035 (after the first 15 years) is to basically realize socialist modernization. As I said some time ago, the simplest but multifaceted way to view socialist modernization is to focus on the main economic indicators like the economic aggregate. In the next 15 years, by 2035, our total economy is expected to double to more than 200 trillion yuan, based on the 101 trillion yuan last year. Our per capita GDP is $10,000 now, and doubling it means an increase to $20,000. Another important indicator is the market scale. The total retail sales of consumer goods last year registered 39 trillion yuan, and doubling it means a rise to about 80 trillion yuan. If we are to double the main indicators in the next 15 years, an economic growth rate of 4.72% or 4.73% is enough.
To achieve the second centenary goal, the principal contradiction won't lie in speed. Mr. Xu said just now that China can achieve an economic growth rate of 8% this year. I think the growth rate could be lowered a bit during the 15th and 16th Five-Year Plan periods (2026-2030 and 2031-2035), as this will help us concentrate more on the quality of economic growth. While we were making efforts to fulfill the first centenary goal in the past four decades, we created a miracle more in terms of the growth speed. At that time, we had yet to eliminate poverty and meet the basic needs of the people, hence we needed to achieve an extraordinary economic growth rate. But from now on, as we are striving to realize the second centenary goal, we should create a miracle in growth quality, namely the high-quality development. Judging from the economic data of the first half of this year, I believe the miracle in the future will be made in high quality development. For example, we should take innovation as the fundamental driving force. Future development should be green by achieving peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality; it should be coordinated across the eastern, central and western regions, between urban and rural areas, and among various industries; and it should be more open and shared by all to ensure that each and every one of our 1.4 billion people can fully enjoy the benefits of development. Therefore, in this respect, I quite agree with you that when we achieve the second centenary goal, China's economy will still be a miracle. However, this miracle will be different from that of the past 40 years, as the past one was more about quantity and speed and the new one will be reflected in quality. Thank you.
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