SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in H1 2021
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 22, 2021
Cover News:
My question is on CPI. The data released this morning shows that CPI is up 0.5% year on year, lower than the inflation-control target of 3% this year. So, which are the main control policies that have taken effect? What are your predictions for the CPI trend for the whole year? And do you believe that inflation will not be a main contradiction for China's economic performance this year? Thank you.
Yao Jingyuan:
China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.1% year-on-year in June and 0.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2021. The CPI's moderate rise can still be attributed to the intensified efforts on supply-side structural reform. How can we keep the rise of the CPI under control? Food prices account for 30% of the CPI, which is the biggest component. To ensure the stability of food prices, the prices of pork are of utmost importance. We have attached great importance to pork prices since 2019. Governments at all levels have introduced favorable policies on land use for hog production, tax reduction and exemption, and encouragement of large-scale hog breeding, to name a few of them. As of the end of June, the number of pigs available for slaughter increased to 439.11 million, returning to the historically normal level. The supplies have thus been increased. Thanks to the supply-side structural reform, the CPI can be kept stable.
In terms of the CPI, if problems emerge in the overall market sales, then they are also related with structural issues. The principal contradiction facing Chinese society has evolved and is now that between the people's ever-growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. The supply of things to meet the people's needs for a better life is insufficient. For example, we all need green products, but the supply is far from sufficient.
Regarding the trend of the CPI in the second half of this year, I believe that it is likely to rebound especially in September. Due to the consumption peak brought about by the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday as well as the consolidated progress of epidemic prevention and control, consumption and demand in September will increase, which may lead to a rise in prices. At the beginning of this year, China's CPI was set to rise no more than 3% year-on-year. There shouldn't be any problems accomplishing this target. However, we should also be aware that the rise in raw material prices will lead to the rise of the CPI; that the rise of oil prices will result in the rise of chemicals prices; and that the rise of fertilizer prices will cause the rise of food prices. People are concerned about a series of problems like these. The measures we take currently to ensure the supply of commodities and keep their prices stable have been rather effective. Therefore, although the CPI may rise for one or two months in the second half of 2021, I believe that its rise can be kept within 3% throughout this year.
Xing Huina:
We will have the last question.
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