SCIO press conference on 'China's Epic Journey from Poverty to Prosperity' white paper
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E-mail China.org.cn, September 30, 2021
NTV:
The accelerated risks of fewer children and an aging population in China may have an impact on China's future economic development. Under such circumstances, can China continue to maintain a moderately prosperous society in all respects? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
I will answer this question. Thank you. Since the beginning of the century, changes have taken place in the structure and number of China's population. The seventh national census in 2020 has comprehensively investigated the number, structure and distribution of China's population, and this result has been published. Although the growth rate of China's total population has slowed down, the total fertility rate has declined, and the degree of aging has deepened, on the whole, the demographic dividends still exist. We also now have a talent dividend, and the health of Chinese people has been continuously improved. With the gradual improvement of the population policy, China will maintain long-term momentum in economic growth. Human resources will provide a solid guarantee for building a modern socialist country on the basis of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects .
First, labor resources are still abundant and demographic dividends continue to exist. China is still the most populous country in the world. The total population is still growing, and the total working-age population is still huge. China's working-age population, aged 16-59, has reached 880 million, and there are more than 300 million women of childbearing age, which can maintain a birth population of more than 10 million every year. In 2020, the total number of migrant workers in China reached 286 million. The dividends generated by population growth still exist, and labor resources are still abundant, which will provide population support for sustainable economic development.
Second, the quality of the population has significantly improved, and new advantages of talent dividends have gradually emerged. Over the past decade, the education level of China's population has significantly improved. In 2020, the average number of years of education of China's working-age population aged 16-59 reached 10.75 years, an increase of 1.08 years compared with 9.67 years in 2010. In the past decade, education has made great progress, with 208 million people now having a college education or above, accounting for 23.61% of the working-age population, a sharp increase of 11.27 percentage points over 2010. The proportion increased by more than 10 percentage points, nearly doubling. This will help accelerate the transformation of China's economic development mode, optimize and upgrade the industrial structure, and continuously improve the total factor productivity, thus providing new talent support for high-quality economic development.
Third, people's health has improved significantly, and conditions for labor resources have been optimized. Health is important for both well-being and productivity. With the reform and development of medical and health services, the physical quality of Chinese people has improved significantly. China's life expectancy reached 77.3 years in 2019, an increase of 2.47 years over 2010, which is a significant increase. The physical condition of middle-aged and elderly people has improved generally. Although many people have reached old age, their physical condition is still quite good. The infant mortality rate and maternal mortality rate also dropped to 5.4 per 1,000 and 16.9 per 100,000 in 2020, respectively, with improvements in physical fitness at both ends of the spectrum. On the whole, the health level of Chinese residents is better than the average level of middle and high-income countries. The achievements in health care also provide effective labor support for sustainable economic development. Improved physical health is conducive to the functioning of labor resources.
Fourth, the number of children increased and their proportion as a part of the population rose. A new generation of labor resources is growing up. The number of births rebounded as a result of decisions and policy measures such as the "selective two-child" policy and the "universal two-child" policy. Data from the Seventh National Population Census show that the number of children aged 0-14 increased by 30.92 million compared to 2010, and their proportion rose by 1.35 percentage points. The birth rate of second child saw a significant increase, and the proportion of babies born as a second child rose from about 30% in 2013 to about 50% in 2017. This year, the implementation of three-child policy and supportive measures will be conducive to the growth of the birthrate and the improvement of age composition, to achieve long-term and balanced demographic development. Thank you.
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