SCIO briefing on analysis of national economic performance of first three quarters of 2021
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E-mail China.org.cn, October 22, 2021
Xing Huina:
Thank you, Mr. Yao. Next, Mr. Xu Xianchun will have the floor.
Xu Xianchun:
Thank you, Ms. Xing. Friends from the media, good afternoon!
Mr. Yao just elaborated on the economic performance of the first three quarters from the perspective of four major macro indicators. I will talk about characteristics of the economic growth of the first three quarters from the following three perspectives.
First, I will talk about three characteristics from the perspective of production. First, the year-on-year growth rate dropped quarter-by-quarter, but the average two-year growth rate remained relatively stable, and the economic growth of the first three quarters remained fast, which has laid a good foundation for achieving the year's target. According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics this morning, GDP of the first quarter increased by 18.3% year-on-year, by 7.9% in the second quarter, and by 4.9% in the third quarter. This indicates that the year-on-year growth rate has declined significantly. But in terms of the average two-year growth rates, namely 5% in the first quarter, 5.5% in the second quarter, and 4.9% in the third quarter, the trend remained relatively stable, with only a 0.6 percentage point gap between the highest and lowest. In addition, the GDP growth rate of 9.8% in the first three quarters was high. From my point of view as an expert, I can predict that the GDP growth of 9.8% is a decisive factor for achieving the year's target of about 7%, so the growth of the first nine months has laid a foundation for achieving the year's target. Second, the added value of the secondary industry was the fastest-growing area, which played a significant role in supporting economic growth. The added value of the secondary industry saw an increase of 10.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters, the fastest rate among the three industries. Third, the service sector made the biggest contribution to economic growth, and was the major driving force of economic growth of the first three quarters. In the first nine months, the added value of the service sector accounted for 54.8% of GDP, and the contribution of the sector to economic growth reached 54.2%, up 1.2 percentage points compared with the first half of the year.
Second, I will also talk about three characteristics from the perspective of demand. First, consumption has played a leading role in driving economic growth. In the first nine months, the contribution of consumption to economic growth reached 64.8%, up 3.1 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Second, the role of investment in driving economic growth weakened. In the first nine months, the contribution of investment to economic growth reached 15.6%, down 3.6 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Third, net export demand showed a good momentum and played an important role in driving economic growth. In the first nine months, the contribution of net exports to economic growth reached 19.5%, up 0.4 percentage point compared with the first half of the year.
Third, new economic forms and new driving forces continued to grow fast. This provided important support for economic growth. The highlights of their robust growth are as follows. First, the high-tech manufacturing sector continued to grow fast. The value added of high-tech manufacturing went up by 20.1% year-on-year, with an average two-year growth of 12.8%, 8.3 percentage points and 6.4 percentage points higher respectively than that of large industrial enterprises as a whole. Second, the high-tech service sector continued to see fast growth. The added value of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 19.3%, with an average two-year growth of 17.6%, 9.8 percentage points and 12.7 percentage points higher respectively than that of the service sector. Third, investment in the high-tech industries continued to grow fast. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 18.7% year-on-year, with an average two-year growth of 13.8%, 11.4 percentage points and 10 percentage points higher respectively than that of investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households).
I have summarized the characteristics of economic growth from the above-mentioned three perspectives. Thank you.
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