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SCIO briefing on analysis of national economic performance of first three quarters of 2021

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ThePaper.cn:

According to data from the survey on unemployment rates and migrant workers, employment remained stable in the third quarter, but the economic situation has slowed down. What do you think of the inconsistency between the two? In the background of increasing pressure on economic growth, will the employment market face more challenges? Thank you.

Yao Jingyuan:

Just now, we talked about employment in China. In the first three quarters, new urban jobs completed 95% of the annual target. The surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, which fell within the expected target of 5.5%. In the past, we calculated unemployment rate on the basis of registered unemployment rate. That means if you are unemployed and go to the relevant government department to get registered, you will be included in the unemployment calculation. But if someone is unemployed and fails to register, is the calculation going to be accurate? Now the National Bureau of Statistics conducts labor force surveys to estimate the nationwide unemployment rate in cities and towns in accordance with international standards and criteria. The first of the criteria is that an individual doesn't have a job during the survey. The second is whether a person has the ability to work. The third and the most important is whether a person is actively seeking a job but fails to get one. These are the international standards for the unemployed population, and the survey conducted on this basis must be scientific and credible. The surveyed unemployment rates show that employment in the first three quarters was basically stable, and unemployment rate in September actually fell. You just asked why employment can be strong when the economy has slowed down.

First, I wonder if you noticed that according to the basic principles of macroeconomics, macro regulation comprises monetary policy and fiscal policy, however, in China, it also includes pro-employment policy. China's macro regulation actually consists of three policies. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the State Council have emphasized many times that employment is the foundation of people's livelihood and economic work should focus on improving people's livelihood and boosting employment. We have adopted a number of measures to stabilize employment and encourage enterprises to increase jobs. The pro-employment policy plays an active role.

Second, returning to what I was saying earlier, the economic downturn does not mean that the endogenous power of China's economy is insufficient. China's endogenous power is still strong. Enterprises realize this and thought it was temporary, short-term and accidental. They firmly believe in the endogenous power of China's economy. In accordance with national policies, they have made efforts to stabilize employment. We have achieved a good effect because we stabilized people's expectations for economic growth.