SCIO press conference on China's economic performance in 2021
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E-mail China.org.cn, January 20, 2022
Yicai:
In 2021, the growth of fixed assets investment was sluggish. This year, with the acceleration of the issue of special bonds and the launch of a batch of key projects, will the growth of investment pick up? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
The fixed assets investment is one important carrier of the “troika” I mentioned just now. The statistics of fixed assets investment for the whole year were just released, and now I will elaborate on the overall investment situation.
Generally, investment maintained its recovery momentum in 2021. During the past year, the continuous expansion of investment scale and the improvement of the structure have played important roles in optimizing supply structure, enhancing supply quality, and reinforcing weak links.
First, the investment scale continued to expand. In 2021, the fixed assets investment (excluding rural households) exceeded 50 trillion yuan and reached 54.5 trillion yuan, up by 4.9% over last year, with an average growth rate of 3.9% in the past two years. The average two-year growth rate rose by 0.1 percentage point compared with the first three quarters.
Second, investment in the manufacturing industry improved. In 2021, investment in the manufacturing industry grew by 13.5% year on year, with the average two-year growth rate reaching 4.8%, 0.9 percentage point higher than that of the whole investment. Investment in technological upgrading in the manufacturing industry increased by 13.6% year on year, continuously higher than the general growth rate of manufacturing investment.
Third, investment in the high-tech industries enjoyed good momentum. In 2021, investment in high-tech industries increased by 17.1% year on year, with the average two-year growth rate reaching 13.8%, 9.9 percentage points higher than that of the total investment.
Fourth, investment in the social domain grew swiftly. In 2021, the growth rate of investment in the social domain was 5.8 percentage points higher than that of the total investment.
The investment growth trend in the next phase has attracted a lot of attention. Currently, the international environment is complicated and severe, and the pandemic continues to have great impact, hindering investment growth to some extent. However, from the perspective of China's development phase, there is potential, space and impetus for expanding effective investment.
First, investment in promoting development has great potential. China is still the world's largest developing country. The per capita GDP is less than one fifth of that of the United States and one third of that of Japan. The infrastructure capital stock per capita is only 20%-30% of that of developed countries. Promoting high-quality development and building a modern socialist country still requires the continuous expansion of effective investment.
Second, there is a broad investment space to make up for weaknesses. The issue of unbalanced and inadequate development is still prominent, and there is still a large gap between the development of urban and rural areas. Many weak links still exist in infrastructure and areas related to people's livelihoods. The per capita input for public facilities of farmers is only about one-fifth of that of urban residents. There is a broad investment space to make up for weaknesses.
Third, there has been sufficient motivation for innovation investment. With the increasing driving role of innovation, industrial upgrading remains a steady development. Enterprises have been continuously increasing innovation investment, boosting innovation development, and fostering a new development paradigm, which will be a huge investment push. This year, we will introduce a series of policies and measures which will be conducive to investment in manufacturing, R&D, and technological upgrading. Last year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 17.1% year on year. In terms of capital, China has a high total national savings rate, and social funds are generally adequate. China has also been able to provide good supporting conditions for production and construction. China has both the needs and favorable conditions for expanding effective investment.
Fourth, policies such as adopting an appropriate forward-thinking plan for infrastructure are gaining momentum. Since the second half of last year, the issuance of special bonds by local governments has been accelerated, and investment from the central government budget has also been accelerated. 102 key projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan have been launched continuously. We have launched projects concerning new infrastructure and new urbanization initiatives as well as major transportation and water conservancy projects in an orderly manner. Enhanced policy support, which includes fiscal and monetary investment, has been conducive to the steady recovery of fixed-asset investment. In terms of leading indicators for investment, from January to December 2021, 287,760 new projects were launched, 36,767 more than the period from January to November. The planned gross investment of new projects grew by 3.3% year on year, 0.6 percentage point faster than the growth rate of the January-November period, and has risen consecutively in the last two months. Since the beginning of this year, a batch of key projects have been launched in different regions as planned, and these projects come with the potential for investment growth. Thanks.
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