SCIO briefing on government work report
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 10, 2022
The Poster News APP:
The Report on the Work of the Government stated that the main projected target for this year's development is a GDP growth of around 5.5%. Considering the current complex and severe domestic and overseas economic environment, are there any special considerations for such a projection? Thank you.
Xiang Dong:
Thank you for your question. After Premier Li Keqiang finished delivering the report, everyone has been concerned about the projected growth rate this year. China's economy's two-year average growth rate has dropped from the 6% growth rate in 2019, mainly due to factors such as the continuation of the pandemic. From a global perspective, major economies' two-year average economic growth rate is generally slower than that before the pandemic, and the rate of slowdown is greater than that of China.
Setting GDP growth target at around 5.5% this year, first of all, has considered the need to maintain stable employment, meet basic living needs, and guard against risks. Economic stability is the foundation. Employment and income will be difficult to stabilize if the economy is unstable, and some hidden risks will be revealed. Achieving a growth rate of about 5.5% this year, we will have the foundation to expand employment and increase income. The economy's operation will be able to be maintained in a reasonable range.
Second, it is also considered in keeping with the average growth rates of the last two years and the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan. As you just said, China's economy has grown by an average of 5.1% in the past two years. In 2019, before the pandemic, China's economic growth target was projected to be 6%-6.5%, and the actual growth rate for that year was 6.1%. Although the 14th Five-Year Plan does not set specific economic growth expectations, it requires keeping within a reasonable range. Taking these factors into consideration, it is relatively scientific and reasonable to set the projected economic growth target for this year at around 5.5%, which is in line with China's potential growth level at the current stage and is conducive to guiding expectations, boosting confidence, and building consensus on development.
Third, as the report stated, it represents a medium-high growth rate given our large economic aggregate and demonstrates our ability to move proactively. For example, last year, China's GDP reached 114.4 trillion yuan. On this basis, when it achieves an increase of 5.5%, which is equivalent to an increase of 7.4% five years ago and an increase of 10.5% ten years ago; the corresponding economic increment exceeds 9 trillion yuan, which is close to the annual economic aggregate of the 11th and 12th largest economies in the world. But achieving this goal is not easy and will require arduous efforts. Therefore, to achieve the projected economic growth target of "about 5.5%," we should focus on the following aspects this year:
The first is to insist on ensuring stability a top priority and seeking progress while maintaining stability. We must put stable growth in a more prominent position. All localities and government bodies should earnestly shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macroeconomy and actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability. Of course, stable growth is not just about speed ignoring quality. It is about adhering to the new concept for development and promoting the steady improvement in quality and rational growth of the quantity.
The second is to intensify the implementation of macro policies. This year's fiscal, monetary, employment priority, and other policies are sizable. Fiscal expenditure exceeds 26 trillion yuan, and tax rebates and tax reductions are around 2.5 trillion yuan. In addition, monetary policy should strengthen support for the real economy, which can provide strong support for the smooth operation of the economy.
The third is to deepen reform, expand opening-up, and promote innovation. We will firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and strive to stimulate market vitality and enhance the endogenous driving force for development.
And there is an important premise here: it is still necessary to ensure pandemic prevention and control. We must coordinate pandemic prevention and control with economic and social development, ensure normalized pandemic prevention and control, protect people's lives and health, minimize the impact on production and life, and create conditions for maintaining normal production and living order. This is an essential prerequisite for consolidating economic recovery and development.
Overall, the economic fundamentals sustain long-term growth. The total number of market entities in China has exceeded 150 million and continues to grow quickly. Under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, we will work together, keep going and make pragmatic and persistent efforts to accomplish the targets and tasks for economic and social development this year, with the result of the hard work and vision of more than 1.4 billion Chinese people, a variety of instruments and space for macro policies and a wealth of invaluable experience on responding to significant challenges and withstanding major risks.
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