SCIO press conference on China's economic performance in H1 2022
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 20, 2022
ThePaper.cn:
You mentioned that the growth rate of industrial value-added above designated size turned from negative to positive in May and continued to increase in June. The spread of COVID-19 in many parts of China has brought uncertainties to economic and social development. What do you think of the current resumption of work and production in China? What is the prediction for the recovery of the industrial economy in the second half and for the whole year? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
In the first half of the year, due to unexpected factors both at home and abroad, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of industrial production decreased in April. However, since May, industrial production has continued to rebound as the measures to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development have taken effect, and the measures to stabilize industrial economic operations have also delivered their desired effect. In the first half of the year, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.4% year on year. In the second quarter, industrial production stopped its decline and turned positive. In the second quarter, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.7% year on year, specifically a 2.9% decrease in April and a 0.7% increase in May, before a strong rally of 3.9% in June, hinting at a recovery. This recovery mainly showed in the following aspects:
First, the mining industry has maintained rapid growth. Energy supplies and price stability continued to be promoted, and relevant industries continued to grow fast, driving the value-added growth of the mining industry. In the second quarter, the value added growth of the mining industry grew by 8.4% year on year, with double-digit growth in the coal mining and washing industries, which were both significantly faster than the growth of all industries above designated size.
Second, value-added figures in high-tech manufacturing enterprises have demonstrated stable growth. Despite adverse effects such as the impact of the epidemic, the trend for industrial upgrading and development has not changed, and high-tech manufacturing has grown rapidly. In the second quarter, the value added of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 5.7% year on year, higher than that of other industries above designated size, which has shown remarkable resilience.
Third, the export of industrial products played an active role in driving economic growth. China has a robust industrial production capacity and international competitiveness, and the export of industrial products maintained rapid growth. In the second quarter, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size achieved a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with a rise of 15.1% in June, which was 4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.
Fourth, industrial production in the central and western regions was generally stable. In the second quarter, although parts of the eastern and northeastern areas were significantly affected by COVID-19, the industrial production in the central and western regions was generally stable, supporting the industrial production. In the second quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the central and western regions rose by 5.9% and 6%, respectively. The growth rate was higher than the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide.
According to the statistics in June, with a series of policies to ensure stable growth taking effect, industrial production rebounded markedly. First, the growth rate rebounded in most sectors and regions. In June, the growth rate of 27 of the 41 major industries rebounded from the previous month, accounting for 65.9%. The growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size in 21 regions of 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) rebounded, accounting for 67.7%. Second, the growth rate of the equipment manufacturing industry accelerated. As barriers in the industrial and supply chains have been gradually removed, the production in the automobile manufacturing sector rebounded significantly, driving rapid growth in the equipment manufacturing industry. In June, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry rose by 9.2% year on year, 8.1 percentage points higher than the previous month, with the automobile manufacturing sector increasing by 16.2%, which had decreased by 7% during the last month. Third, the industrial production in the areas hit hard by COVID-19 in the early stage recovered significantly. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size in Shanghai and Jilin province grew by 13.9% and 6.3%, respectively, dropping by 30.9% and 4.9% in the previous month.
All these statistics show that industrial production is steadily recovering; the impact of external shocks such as COVID-19 is gradually subsiding; production operations are improving at a faster pace. Industrial production plays a more vital role in supporting the economy, and industrial upgrading continues its good momentum, enhancing the quality of industrial development. However, it should be noted that currently, barriers still exist between industrial production and sales, enterprises in some industries face many difficulties, and it still requires continuous efforts to stabilize the industrial economy. In the next stage, measures will be taken to implement policies to ease the challenges of businesses fully. These include strengthening open and smooth logistics services, removing barriers in industrial and supply chains, and supporting enterprises in pursuing innovative development. These measures will ensure the stable performance of industrial production. Thank you.
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