SCIO briefing on China's foreign-exchange receipts and payments data in H1 2022
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E-mail China.org.cn, August 3, 2022
Bloomberg:
As the Fed tightens monetary policy, both the yen and the euro have devalued. Against such a backdrop, how do you perceive the outlook of the RMB exchange rate in the second half of this year? Thank you.
Wang Chunying:
As I just mentioned, the RMB exchange rate was generally stable for the first half of this year, with steady development. Regarding the next half year that you inquired about, the RMB exchange rate will stay basically stable on an appropriate and balanced level. Here are the factors that support this conclusion.
First, China's economic recovery continues to gather steam with major economic indicators improving. Industrial and supply chains remain stable and will continue playing a fundamental role in the consolidation of the RMB exchange rate.
Second, China's foreign trade and foreign investment show resilience. Trade and investment in the real economy will continue to see net inflows of funds, contributing to the basic balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.
Third, market entities' expectations for the exchange rate remain basically stable. They have kept the rational trading model of "Buy low, sell high."
Moreover, China's structure of external assets and liabilities has been continuously optimized. The scale of foreign exchange reserve remains generally stable, continues to be the first in the world, and remains a stabilizer and cornerstone of the national economic and financial security. It's true that the future tendency of the RMB exchange rate will be partly affected by multiple factors, such as foreign exchange supply and demand and international financial markets. And there could be upward or downward fluctuations in the short term. However, the RMB exchange rate will maintain flexibility and two-way fluctuations while staying basically stable on an appropriate and balanced level. Thank you.
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