SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in 2022
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E-mail China.org.cn, February 3, 2023
Financial Times:
Can you provide information on China's death rate in December 2022 and how it compares with December 2021? Thank you.
Kang Yi:
Thank you for your question about population, which is of great concern to many. I will introduce it from the perspective of demographic statistics. China conducts a population census every 10 years, or at the end of each decade. The latest census, also the seventh, was conducted in 2020. In non-census years, demographic statistics use survey sampling methods. At midnight on Nov. 1 each year, survey sampling is conducted in order to identify demographic changes. Therefore, the total population, births and deaths for the whole year are calculated. Thank you.
CNBC:
Last year saw a decline in real estate and exports. In terms of statistics, is there any new growth driving force for sustainable economic development to offset the factors leading to the decline? Thank you.
Kang Yi:
Thank you for your question about real estate and exports. First, I will brief you on the real estate situation in 2022. With a long industrial chain and affecting many aspects, the real estate industry greatly influences the national economy. According to our calculations, real estate and its relevant industries account for 13% or 14% of total GDP. In 2022, the value added of the real estate industry decreased by 5.1%, affecting many indexes. Due to the impact of the real estate industry, the 5.1% growth rate of fixed investment is not very fast. The 10% reduction in real estate investing led to a decline of 2.5 percentage points in fixed assets investment. Affected by the real estate sector, private investment increased by 0.9%. Private investment accounts for about 80% of real estate investment. Therefore, the decline of 10% in the latter has a big downward influence on the former. Manufacturing investment in private investment grew by double digits. Private investment has a large proportion of real estate investment, which has had a great downward impact on the former. Fluctuations in the real estate market are normal.
According to the latest situation, the country released a series of relevant policies to construct a new real estate system, as we have noticed. In December, the decline in all indexes in the real estate industry slowed down, with new factors coming into being. The decline in real estate investment in December was 7.7 percentage points smaller than that of November. Declines in the sold floor space of commercial buildings, sales volume, capital in place, and the floor space of houses beginning construction narrowed to different degrees. Therefore, we initially estimated that the impact of the real estate industry on the economy in 2023 would not be greater than that in 2022. Real estate remains a pillar industry, and conditions are favorable for the steady recovery of the real estate market. With urbanization still in development, China saw an increase of half a percentage point in its urbanization rate to 65.22% last year, still lower than 80% of developed countries. The newly added urban population was huge last year, which implies future development space. Policy adjustment in supply and demand aims to emphasize that housing is for living in, not for speculation, and reduce the financial function of real estate. Besides, guarantee and supply are provided in multiple channels from various parties, which will help establish a new healthy real estate market.
Policies concerning the demand side to support justified and improved housing needs will effectively support the real estate industry. The demand for improved living conditions is substantial. As the pillar industry for developing and developed countries, the real estate industry has a tremendous influence on the economy. Thank you.
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