SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in first quarter of 2023
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 28, 2023
Market News International(MNI):
China's exports were strong in March, better than expected. Do you think this strong momentum is sustainable?
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your question. Since this year, China's imports and exports have maintained sustained growth, following last year's good performance. It was not easy. In the first quarter, the total import and export of goods grew 4.8% year on year, of which exports grew 8.4%, maintaining a relatively fast growth. It was not easy to achieve such growth in the context of slowing world economic growth and greater external uncertainties. In the next stage, China's import and export growth is facing certain pressure, mainly in the following ways: First, the world economy is growing weakly. According to the IMF forecast, the global economy is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2023, a significant drop from last year's growth rate. According to the latest WTO forecast, the volume of global merchandise trade will grow by 1.7% in 2023, which is significantly lower than last year. Second, external uncertainty is relatively large. Inflation levels in the U.S. and Europe have been relatively high so far this year, and monetary policies have continued to tighten. Recently, some bank liquidity crises in the United States and Europe have been exposed, which has increased the instability in economic operations. At the same time, geopolitical risks still exist. Rising unilateralism and protectionism have also exacerbated instability and uncertainty in global trade and economy.
Despite these pressure and challenges, China's foreign trade is resilient and dynamic. With various policies stabilizing foreign trade, the year is expected to achieve its goal of promoting stability and improving quality. First, China's industrial system is relatively complete, the supply chain is relatively strong, and it can adapt to changes in the foreign demands. Second, China insists on expanding opening up to the outside world and constantly expanding foreign trade. In the first quarter, China's imports and exports with countries along the Belt and Road grew by 16.8%, and imports and exports with other RCEP member countries grew by 7.3%, of which exports grew by 20.2%. Third, China's foreign trade has increasingly been driven by new growth momentums. Recently, the General Administration of Customs press conference also mentioned the first quarter growth of 66.9% in exports of electric passenger cars, lithium batteries, and solar cells. Cross-border e-commerce and other new business forms in foreign trade also grew relatively fast. Going forward, the policies designed for stabilizing foreign trade will continue to show results, which is conducive to achieving the goal of promoting stability and improving the quality of foreign trade throughout the year. Thank you.
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