SCIO press conference on foreign-exchange receipts, payment data of Q1 2023
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E-mail China.org.cn, June 8, 2023
Phoenix TV:
The current account surplus for 2022 was high, creating favorable conditions for stabilizing the foreign exchange market. The growth of the global economy is expected to decline this year. What's your opinion on the performance of the current account this year? Thanks.
Wang Chunying:
Your observation is correct. In recent years, China's current account has shown strong stability, and the current account surplus has continued to grow steadily, which has played a positive role in stabilizing the BOP and the foreign exchange market. This year, people are concerned about the impact of changes in external demand and the resumption of cross-border flows of people. I will give my response and analysis from these two aspects. Overall, China's trade in goods and services has been more effective and efficient in recent years, which has helped the country maintain a reasonable current account surplus and given the foreign exchange market considerable support.
The trade surplus in goods will remain relatively high, as structural changes have gradually taken place in foreign trade in recent years, which have provided more support to exports. First, new drivers of trade growth are emerging as China's manufacturing sector continues to transform and upgrade, its industrial chain and supply chain become more stable, and its products become more competitive. The total value of exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells rose by 67% in yuan terms in the first quarter of this year, driving exports by 2 percentage points. Compared to last year, this pulling effect is even stronger. Second, China continued to enhance regional trade cooperation and made positive progress in diversifying trade partners. In the first quarter of this year, China's exports to ASEAN and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 28% and 25%, respectively. Third, digital trade, represented by cross-border e-commerce, is booming. Cross-border e-commerce exports grew rapidly in the first quarter, significantly driving the export growth. What about imports? Currently, we have agreed on further boosting domestic investment and consumption. Under this consensus, the import volume will keep growing, and commodity prices may fall from high levels. Overall, imports are expected to remain stable.
As for trade in services, high-quality development of trade in services is gradually producing results, which will contribute to the balanced development of China's import and export of trade in services. In recent years, China's manufacturing and service industries have integrated and developed. The rapid development of trade in productive services, especially computer information services, business services, and other emerging services, will drive the income growth from exports of services. For example, China is speeding up the construction of "digital China". From 2020 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of trade in digitally deliverable services exceeded 10%, much higher than the overall 3% growth rate of trade in services. For the first time ever in 2022, China's trade in services that can be delivered over information and communication technologies (ICT) networks recorded a surplus of more than $10 billion, showing the country's growing international competitiveness in digital products and services. On the other hand, cross-border travel consumption, which you are concerned about, has been the main form of China's import of trade in services. We can see from the experience of the steady recovery of cross-border travel in major Asian countries that it will take some time to restore the Chinese cross-border travel consumption.
Based on the situation of trade in goods and services, China's current account will post a reasonable surplus this year, and it will remain within an equilibrium range. Thanks.
Chen Wenjun:
Thank you, Ms. Wang. Thanks to friends from the media. Today's press conference is hereby concluded. Goodbye.
In case of any discrepancy between the English and Chinese texts, the Chinese version is deemed to prevail.
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