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E-mail China.org.cn, April 28, 2024
Jinan Times APP:
Yesterday, the NBS released China's economic data for the first quarter, much of which exceeded the expectations of some market institutions. What's your view on the current state of the Chinese economy, its prominent features, and future trends? Thank you.
Yuan Da:
Thank you for your question. All sides are interested in China's economic situation. Mr. Liu has just provided an overall introduction regarding the situation in the first quarter. Since the start of this year, the Chinese economy has sustained the momentum of recovery, achieving a stable and positive start. Available data shows increases, progress, and improvement based on overall economic stability.
First, the growth rates of China's major economic indicators saw a steady increase. China's economic growth picked up, with the first quarter's gross domestic product growing by 5.3% year on year and 1.6% quarter on quarter, representing an increase of 0.1 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, over the fourth quarter of last year. The country also saw accelerated industrial production, with the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size growing by 6.1% year on year, 1.5 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of 2023. Growth in investment and exports was good. Fixed-asset investment rose 4.5% year on year, 1.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate for the entire year of 2023. China's exports of goods calculated in RMB increased by 4.9%, 4.3 percentage points higher than the annual growth rate for last year.
Second, steady progress has been made in structural adjustments to the economy. The industrial structure is steadily improving, with the acceleration of the transformation of growth drivers. The manufacturing industry has grown rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% in the first quarter, including a 7.5% growth in the value added of high-tech manufacturing. Emerging industries are developing rapidly, with 40.6% and 26.7% increases in the outputs of 3D printing equipment and service robots, respectively. Producer services are developing at a faster pace, with a 13.7% increase in the value added of information transmission, software and information technology services, up by 2.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. The three drivers of growth – consumption, exports and investment – are working together more cohesively. Domestic demand continues to act as the main driver of growth, contributing 85.5% to the economic growth in the first quarter. Net exports have driven economic growth more effectively, with the contribution rate of external demand shifting from -3.1% in the previous quarter to 14.5%.
Third, corporate performance, employment and people's income as well as market expectations are steadily improving. The performance of enterprises has recovered quickly, with profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 10.2% year on year in the first two months. Employment and people's income are improving steadily, with the urban surveyed unemployment rate at 5.2% in March, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month and the same period last year. Personal per capita disposable income increased by 6.2% in real terms in the first quarter, continuing to outpace economic growth. Market expectations are stable and improving. The manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8% in March, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, bouncing back to the expansion zone after five consecutive months of contraction. The production and operation expectation index for manufacturing enterprises was 55.6%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the business activity index for non-manufacturing industries was 53%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month.
At the same time, we are aware that external risks and challenges remain, and there are still many difficulties in terms of domestic economic operation. In summary, China's economy achieved a good start in the first quarter, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual targets. As the various policy measures introduced earlier continue to take effect and the new tasks and measures deployed by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council are implemented, the positive trend of China's economic recovery will be continuously consolidated. We are more confident and assured of achieving the annual targets to a high standard. Thank you.
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