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E-mail China.org.cn, May 11, 2024
CCTV:
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has published full-year data on merchandise trade for 2023. China stabilized its market share in imports and exports, maintaining its position as the world's largest nation in goods trade for the seventh consecutive year. How does the Ministry of Commerce view the current foreign trade situation and its future outlook? Thank you.
Guo Tingting:
Thank you for your question. In 2023, despite facing multiple difficulties and challenges, China withstood pressure and maintained its size and market share in foreign trade, showing strong growth resilience. China has remained the top trading country in goods for the seventh straight year. In 2023, its share of world exports stood at 14.2%, the same as in 2022. The country's share of world imports reached 10.6%, slightly higher than in 2022. In the first quarter of this year, China's imports and exports of goods rose by 5%, maintaining steady recovery and growth. Achieving such results amid slower global trade growth was no easy feat.
Looking ahead to the next phase of foreign trade, we generally feel that there are both opportunities and challenges. The opportunities can be summarized into the following three positives aspects:
First, the domestic economy's recovery and growth have been boosted, establishing a solid foundation. Foreign trade performance is closely related to the domestic economy. In the first quarter, the national economy grew by 5.3%, and the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1%. This provides a solid foundation for consolidating the fundamentals of foreign trade.
Second, business expectations continue to improve, with increasing confidence. In March, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector reached 50.8%, re-entering the expansion zone. A recent survey of over 20,000 exhibitors at the Canton Fair showed that 81.5% of the respondents reported an increase or stability in their order books, a 16.8 percentage point increase compared to the previous session. Enterprises are relatively optimistic about their order situations and are more actively exploring international markets.
Third, key industries are stabilizing and showing positive momentum, with increasing strength. After a downward cycle lasting two years, the electronic information industry is gradually recovering in terms of trade in its main products. In the first quarter, China's integrated circuit industry grew by 24.2%, imports increased by 14.3%, and exports of computers and components grew by 8.6%. This also demonstrates our capabilities in industrial support and integration.
From the perspective of challenges, they are notably reflected in three areas:
First, there is a slowdown in the expected growth of external demand. Recently, the World Trade Organization released its "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" report, lowering the projected growth rate of world merchandise trade volume for 2024 to 2.6%, 0.7 percentage point lower than the forecast in October last year.
Second, the risks from geopolitical conflicts are increasing. The Ukraine crisis has experienced prolonged fluctuations, the impact of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to spill over, and the blockade of the Red Sea route has already altered global shipping patterns, thereby increasing risks to oil supply. Additionally, this year is a "super election year" globally, bringing various uncertainties.
Third, there is a rising trend of trade protectionism. In our surveys and discussions with foreign trade enterprises, many of them have expressed that certain countries are politicizing trade issues, establishing trade barriers, and disrupting global industrial and supply chain stability. As a result, enterprises face increased interference and greater difficulties in market development.
Currently, in accordance with the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce is actively collaborating with local governments and departments to develop and implement a series of targeted, practical and effective measures to support stable foreign trade. These measures are designed to enhance the capabilities of foreign trade enterprises and expand their market presence. We are confident in our ability to achieve this year's goals of improving quality, increasing quantity, and ensuring the stability of foreign trade. We are committed to contributing to the promotion of sustained economic recovery and long-term development. Thank you.
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