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E-mail China.org.cn, October 11, 2024
Yicai:
We have noted that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered 49.1% in August. How do you view this figure, and what is the expected trend in the coming period? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
In August, the manufacturing PMI fell slightly due to seasonal factors, while the non-manufacturing industry, particularly the service sector business activity index, accelerated mildly. The overall level of economic prosperity remained stable. Affected by high temperatures, heavy rainfall and off-season production in some industries, the manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month. Meanwhile, driven by summer travel consumption, the services business activity index stood at 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage point. The composite PMI output index posted 50.1%, continuing to stay within the expansion zone.
In the manufacturing sector, high-tech and equipment manufacturing returned to expansion, with PMI readings of 51.7% and 51.2%, respectively, up 2.3 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month. By industry, the production and new order indices for food, beverages and refined tea, railway, ship and aerospace equipment, and electrical machinery all exceeded 54%. Energy-intensive industries registered 46.4%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily causing the manufacturing PMI decline. Manufacturing enterprises' production expectations remained expansionary, with the business activity expectation index at 52% in August, indicating that most manufacturing enterprises were relatively optimistic about recent market developments. Structural changes in the manufacturing PMI show that the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector are accelerating, continually injecting new momentum into economic development.
Summer consumption played a significant role in driving growth in the service sector. The business activity indices for railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, and culture, sports and entertainment industries all remained above 55%, indicating a high level of prosperity. Regarding market expectations, the business activity expectation index for the service sector stood at 55.4%, maintaining a relatively high prosperity level. Among these, the business expectation indices for postal services, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, and monetary and financial services all posted above 60%, reflecting a highly prosperous outlook. Overall, businesses remain optimistic about the development of these related industries.
Looking ahead, as various policies and measures continue to take effect and the "golden September and silver October" peak production season arrives, we anticipate a gradual recovery in both the overall PMI and the service sector's business activity index. Thank you.
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