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E-mail China.org.cn, October 11, 2024
Xing Huina:
Please raise your hand if you have a question. Before asking, please state the name of your media organization.
CMG:
China's economy has performed steadily this year, maintaining a positive trend. How would you evaluate the economic indicators for August? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your question. In August, domestic and international conditions became more complex and severe. High temperatures, heavy rain and floods continued to impact economic activities. Facing these challenges, various regions and departments thoroughly implemented decisions from the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. The effects of macroeconomic policies continued to emerge. The economy remained generally stable based on four key indicators we use to assess the macroeconomy — growth, employment, prices and balance of international payments. Meanwhile, transformation and upgrading proceeded steadily, high-quality development achieved new progress, and the economy continued its trend of steady improvement.
First, production remained generally stable, with continued upgrading trends. In agriculture, early rice production held steady this year. Local governments strengthened field management, and most agricultural areas saw favorable conditions. Autumn crops are currently growing normally. Hog farming efficiency improved, with increases in both inventory and slaughter numbers. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 4.5% year on year in August. Equipment manufacturing continued to play a stabilizing role, with industrial upgrading and the shift to new growth drivers becoming increasingly evident. In August, equipment manufacturing's added value rose 6.4% year on year, contributing 47.9% to the total added value of all industrial enterprises above designated size. The electronics industry maintained double-digit growth, while high-tech manufacturing increased 8.6%. The production of smart, green products such as virtual reality devices, smartwatches, and new energy vehicles has continued to grow rapidly. The service sector production index increased 4.6% year on year in August. Accommodation and catering saw faster growth than the previous month, boosted by summer tourism. Modern service industries performed well, with information transmission, software and IT services growing 12.1% and leasing and business services growing 9.4% in terms of production index.
Second, domestic demand continued to expand with ongoing structural optimization. In terms of consumption, total retail sales of consumer goods rose 2.1% year on year in August, with restaurant revenue growing 3.3%, 0.3 percentage point faster than the previous month. Green and digital consumption showed lively activity, while service consumption potential continued to grow. Online-offline retail integration expanded the scope of consumption and improved consumer experiences. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, sales of new energy vehicles in August increased 43.2% year on year. From January to August, online sales of physical goods increased 8.1% year on year, significantly faster than the overall growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods. Service retail sales increased 6.9%, 3.9 percentage points faster than retail sales of goods in the same period. In terms of investment, fixed asset investment rose 3.4% year on year from January to August, with high-tech industry investment growing 10.2%, maintaining double-digit growth for six consecutive months, providing strong support for nurturing and developing new growth drivers.
Third, employment remained stable overall, and consumer prices increased slightly. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, up 0.1 percentage point from July, mainly due to college graduates entering the job market. The employment situation for migrant workers was relatively good, with the surveyed unemployment rate of the population with non-local agricultural household registration dropping by 0.3 percentage point to 4.6% in August compared to the previous month. Consumer prices increased due to high temperatures and rainy weather. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month on month in August, the second consecutive monthly increase. Year on year, the CPI rose 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month, continuing a moderate upward trend.
Fourth, foreign trade showed growth, and foreign exchange reserves continued to grow. Despite the slowing global economic recovery and weakened manufacturing activity worldwide, China's total imports and exports in August rose 4.8% year on year, reaching a record high for the month. Exports grew 8.4%, up 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. The trade structure continued to improve, with the cumulative growth rate of machinery and electronics products exports accelerating by half a percentage point, accounting for nearly 60% of total exports. Products such as automobiles and integrated circuits continued to show strength, with their export values maintaining rapid growth. The Belt and Road Initiative continued to show results, with China's imports and exports to partner nations increasing 7% year on year from January to August, outpacing overall import-export growth. At the end of August, foreign exchange reserves increased $31.8 billion from July, remaining above $3.2 trillion for the year. The yuan showed a trend of steady appreciation.
Looking at the overall performance for the first eight months of the year, the scale of major indicators continued to expand steadily, with growth rates remaining largely stable. From January to August, retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment hit 31.2 trillion yuan and 32.9 trillion yuan, respectively, highlighting the potential of China's super-large market. China's total value of imports and exports reached 28.6 trillion yuan, maintaining its global market share. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, the service production index, retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment grew by 5.8%, 4.9%, 3.4%, and 3.4%, respectively, all remaining consistent with the January-July period. These figures indicate that China's macroeconomy remains stable overall, and the trend of steady economic operation continues.
In summary, China's economy remained generally stable in August, with continued progress in high-quality development. However, we must recognize that the international environment has become more complex and severe, with increasing instability and uncertainty. Domestic issues such as insufficient demand persist, the transition between old and new growth drivers involves some difficulties, and certain industries and enterprises still face operational challenges. In the next phase, we must continue to thoroughly implement the decisions of the third plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and meetings of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau. We must strengthen macroeconomic regulation, deepen innovation-driven development, fully tap domestic demand potential, enhance market vitality, stabilize market expectations, and promote both qualitative and quantitative economic growth. Thank you.
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