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E-mail China.org.cn, October 11, 2024
ThePaper.cn:
How would you assess August's consumer spending data? Many local governments have issued ultra-long special treasury bonds this year to support consumer goods trade-in initiatives. What's your outlook for consumer spending in the coming period? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your questions. Since the third quarter, the central government has intensified efforts to support large-scale equipment upgrades and encourage consumer goods trade-ins. Local authorities have successively introduced implementation measures. As these policies gradually take effect, we are seeing a continued expansion in sales volume, maintaining an overall trajectory of recovery. From January to August, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year on year, essentially unchanged from the January to July period. The consumer market exhibited the following characteristics:
First, consumption of services maintained rapid growth, and the growth rate of catering revenue picked up. From January to August, retail sales of services grew by 6.9% year on year, 3.9 percentage points higher than the retail sales of goods during the same period. All categories of retail services achieved positive growth, with retail sales of transportation services, communication and information services, as well as financial and insurance services reaching or approaching double-digit growth. In particular, summer travel was active with robust demand for cultural tourism, reflecting the development potential of service consumption. Data from China State Railway Group shows that railways nationwide transported 887 million passengers in July and August, up 6.7% year on year, setting a new record for the summer travel period. Driven by increased travel and other factors, catering revenue rose 3.3% in August, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month.
Second, new types of consumption remained relatively active. With the improvement of residents' living standards and changes in consumer attitudes, digital, green and health consumption have increasingly become new trends and hot spots, with some upgraded products showing positive growth. In August, the retail sales of communication equipment by enterprises above designated size increased by 14.8% year on year, 2.1 percentage points higher than in July. Sales of high energy-efficiency appliances and smart home appliances grew rapidly.
Third, online consumption grew rapidly, with some brick-and-mortar businesses and new models showing strong performance. New consumption models and business formats, such as livestream shopping, short video sales, and instant retail, have developed quickly, driving the continuous expansion of online consumption. From January to August, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.1% year on year, outpacing total retail sales of consumer goods by 4.7 percentage points, accounting for 25.6% of the total retail sales, the same as observed from January to July.
Fourth, policies aimed at stimulating consumption continued to show effectiveness. Currently, policies supporting consumer goods trade-ins are driving recovery of certain categories of bulk consumption. Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that as of Aug. 31, more than 800,000 applications for automobile scrapping and renewal subsidies were received. In August, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment by units above the designated threshold ceased to decline and started to grow, indicating that policies continued to take effect.
At the same time, we should recognize that the sustained recovery of consumption faces certain constraints, and residents' confidence and willingness to consume still need strengthening. The central government has repeatedly emphasized the importance of boosting domestic demand, with a particular focus on promoting consumption. Relevant policies are being intensified, and more localities are actively implementing consumer goods trade-in programs. Through a series of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, we are seeing continuous improvements in the quality and level of goods and services. Consumption policies are being refined, and new types of consumption and service consumption are growing faster. These factors are conducive to rapidly unleashing consumer demand potential, further consolidating the foundation for consumption recovery. Thank you.
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