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E-mail China.org.cn, November 27, 2024
21st Century Business Herald:
How has the recent weakening in international market demand affected China's exports? Could you share details about China's export performance in September? What are the GACC's expectations for export trends in the fourth quarter? Thank you.
Lyu Daliang:
Good afternoon. Thank you for those questions. First, let me brief you on our export performance for September.
In September, China's exports totaled 2.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The growth rate has indeed slowed down, and preliminary analysis suggests this is mainly due to some short-term, sporadic factors. First, there's a connection to the extreme weather in September. Two typhoons made landfall in the Yangtze River Delta, and historical data shows that typhoons' impact on exports tends to last for a considerable time. After a typhoon, shipping schedules often get delayed, leading to a lag in exports. Second, recent issues like global shipping disruptions, a container shortage, and expectations regarding contract negotiations for dockworkers on the U.S. East Coast have caused companies to adjust their shipping and logistics rhythms. According to data, the peak season for export of certain products, which usually came in the third quarter in previous years, was more than a month earlier this year. Additionally, the export scale in September of last year was relatively high, the second highest of the year, only second to December. This high base also constrained the year-on-year growth rate for September this year. Overall, the September slowdown in export growth is considered a typical short-term data fluctuation.
Looking at the overall trend for the first three quarters, exports in September marked the sixth consecutive month of growth. Cumulative exports reached 18.62 trillion yuan, setting a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. This growth rate is 0.5 percentage point higher than the average for the same period over the past decade. Preliminary estimates based on the latest data published by various economies indicate that China's overall export share in the global market is steadily rising. Key export products, from furniture and home appliances to ships and containers, have all seen varying degrees of increased global market share, showcasing China's strong resilience in exports.
Currently, China is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and developing new quality productive forces tailored to local conditions. The country maintains a solid advantage with a strong manufacturing base, a complete range of industries, and a large-scale industrial system, which continues to consolidate its position in the global industrial and supply chain landscape. Recent surveys of over 800 major export enterprises across the country show that 69% of them anticipate stable or growing exports in the fourth quarter. Overall, we maintain a positive outlook for exports in the fourth quarter. Thank you.
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