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E-mail China.org.cn, December 3, 2024
China Business Network:
We have seen new macroeconomic policies introduced recently. How will the economy perform in the fourth quarter? Additionally, with just over two months left until year-end, can annual GDP growth reach our target of about 5%? Thank you.
Sheng Laiyun:
Thank you for your question. I understand everyone is concerned about economic trends in the fourth quarter. Based on economic performance in the first three quarters and the implementation effects of incremental policies, we believe favorable conditions for economic stabilization and recovery are increasing. Our confidence in achieving the target of about 5% growth is strengthening.
First, the GDP growth of 4.8% in the first three quarters has established a solid foundation for achieving the annual target. This growth rate didn’t come easily. The macroeconomic environment has been complex and volatile this year, particularly with mounting external pressures and ongoing internal structural adjustments, which continue to cause ongoing transitional challenges. However, the Chinese economy has withstood these pressures, maintaining stability. This demonstrates the strong resilience and potential of China's economy, and this growth rate provides a foundation for sustained recovery ahead.
Second, economic performance showed positive changes in September, strengthening our confidence in development. Particularly after the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting, a series of incremental policies were expedited and implemented, significantly boosting market participants' confidence. When confidence exists, businesses invest more readily and consumers are more willing to spend. Moreover, some expectation indicators have shown positive changes.
Third, the combined force of these policies will strengthen economic recovery momentum. These policies will positively impact investment, consumption and industrial development. There remains significant room for new policies, and existing ones carry substantial value. Local regions are urgently implementing these policies to achieve tangible results, which will greatly boost economic development momentum. The central government's recent policy package includes measures for stable economic growth and policies promoting structural optimization and new quality productive forces. Additionally, reform plans introduced after the third plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee are being implemented. Thus, aggregate policies, industrial policies and structural reform measures will work together synergistically.
Fourth, leading indicators point to trends of economic stabilization and positive changes. Early October electricity consumption, changes in production material prices, and consumer activity during the National Day holiday all suggest economic stabilization in the fourth quarter is highly probable. Prices, especially those of production materials, are crucial leading economic performance indicators. Comparing early October with late September, 33 out of 50 monitored production materials saw price increases, three remained stable, and only 14 declined. In contrast, between mid-September and early September, only 18 increased, two stayed the same, and 30 decreased. The recovery of prices is beneficial for improving business operating conditions. For example, steel and chemical product prices have shown positive signs of stabilization and recovery. National Day holiday data highlights China's consumer potential, with increased traveler numbers. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the seven-day National Day holiday, domestic travel increased 5.9% year-on-year, travel spending grew 6.3%, and the number of travelers rose 7.9% compared with the same period in 2019.
Based on these factors, we assess that the economy will continue September's stabilization and recovery trend through the fourth quarter. We're confident in achieving our full-year goals. Thank you.
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