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E-mail China.org.cn, December 3, 2024
National Business Daily：
We have noticed that the year-on-year increase of the CPI fell back in September compared to August. What are the factors behind this? How does the NBS view the current price level, and what are the predictions for future trends? Thank you.
Sheng Laiyun:
Thanks for your questions. In September, the CPI increased by 0.4% year on year, and maintained the same level month on month. The year-on-year increase dropped by 0.2 percentage point compared with the previous month. The reasons are as follows: First, the month-on-month increase in food prices went down. August witnessed more extreme weather like heatwaves, typhoons and torrential rains, which affected the supply of vegetables and other foods. Food prices in August rose 3.4% month on month, and its month-on-month increase in September was 2.6 percentage points lower than that in the previous month. Second, service prices including flight tickets and tourism costs decreased after the summer holiday, reducing the impact of service prices on the CPI. Third, oil prices dropped. Affected by the fall in international crude oil prices, domestic refined oil prices were also going down. Due to these factors, the increase of the CPI in September slowed down compared to the CPI in August.
Actually, observing CPI trends in our country as well as trends with industrial commodity prices, our country's price formation is still relatively complex, which fully reflects China's vast territory, diverse industrial levels and relatively large differences in structural changes. Generally speaking, prices in the first three quarters showed three characteristics: varying within a small range, rising moderately and diverging significantly.
First, price fluctuations were maintained within a small range. Both the CPI and the PPI showed small fluctuations. Since April, the year-on-year monthly increase of the CPI had been maintained between 0.3% and 0.6%. In the first three quarters, the CPI went up 0.3% year on year, while the PPI continued its downward trend, which showed that the oversupply in the domestic market was still prominent.
Second, prices rose moderately. As the economy recovers and policies to stabilize the economy continues to be implemented, aggregate social demand keeps rising, which is conducive to the moderate growth of the overall prices. The CPI maintained the same level in the first quarter, went up 0.3% in the second quarter and increased 0.5% in the third quarter, registering a quarter-on-quarter increase. The PPI dropped 2.7% in the first quarter, went down 1.6% in the second quarter and decreased 1.8% in the third quarter, showing slower declines overall. This fully indicated that the economy has been recovering. Prices would not rise moderately without a sustained economic recovery.
Third, prices saw different trends. The year-on-year quarterly increase of the CPI continued to climb, while the PPI, although its decrease slowed, still declined. It shows that the price trends were relatively complex. Fluctuations with prices were due to distinct temporal and structural factors. The PPI declines was attributed not only to insufficient demand, but also to structural reasons including imported pressure. As international prices of crude oil and minerals slumped, importing these products would bring down prices in related domestic industries. Additionally, the adjustment of the real estate sector has resulted in lower prices of relative products such as steel, cement and building materials. These demands may hardly return to the previous level, since demands might have been transferred and traditional industries have been cutting overcapacity. Such structural changes might occur at the current stage. Others were indeed due to fluctuations in the market, overall demand and periodic changes. In a word, the change and trend of the PPI demonstrates strong structural characteristics.
The above trends indicate that the economy is recovering. In the next stage, according to our predictions, the price changes will continue to follow the trends in the first three quarters, featuring price fluctuations within a small range, moderate price growth, and slower PPI decline. As the economy continues to improve and overall demand increases, product prices are expected to rise, especially after the introduction of a package of incremental policies. The CPI is also affected by seasonal factors. Some foods will face undersupply when entering winter, but their demand will gradually increase. For example, the consumption of pork will increase during the winter, especially when approaching the New Year and the Spring Festival holidays. Such are changes caused by seasonal factors. With the carry-over effect fading, the CPI would keep growing moderately and the PPI would continue to show narrowing declines in the fourth quarter. Thank you.
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