News Analysis: Prices in Singapore residential properties unlikely to rise despite low interest rate environment
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E-mail Xinhua, October 24, 2012
While the number of private residential units sold in September by Singapore developers hits the highest in 6 months, few research houses forecast significant price hike of property prices in the city state due to government' s cooling measures.
According to the latest data released by Singapore's Urban Redevelopment Authority, Singapore developers sold a total of 2, 621 private residential units in September 2012, a sharp rise of 84 percent compared to previous month.
The unlimited quantitative easing announced by U.S. Federal Reserve in mid-September had fueled higher speculation activity on expectation of rising property prices.
However, with the government announcement early this month to tighten the home loan tenure which is now capped at 35 years and lower loan-to-value ratio imposed for loans above 30 years or if the loan period extends beyond retirement age of 65 years, few research houses foresee significant spike in housing demand which in turn will push prices of the private houses in the city state.
Following the sixth round of government's cooling measures, Credit Suisse Research said the sales volume of Singapore's private property is expected to be hit in the near term, but added "prices are expected to be resilient in the near term given the low system vacancy and strong household balance sheet."
The Swiss research agency also did not anticipate an oversupply as it believed the government has the flexibility to defer some supply completion.
CIMB Research contended that with rates staying low for an extended period, investor tolerance of low yields in property investment should persist.
Indeed, low interest rates should also accelerate home buying decisions. Loan restrictions in the latest round of cooling measures could put pressure on big-ticket units such as high end property projects and large units given the slightly older buyer profile.
While the September figures suggested prices have held up well, CIMB Research said the recent loan tenure restriction signals policymakers' intention to intervene if physical prices remain elevated.
The likelihood of government introducing further measures to cool local real estate market was also voiced out by Phillip Securities Research. The research house said expectations of liquidity flowing to Asian countries are running high once again, which forced the government to preempt the strong prices and sales figures with several new cooling measures.
Given the government's intention of keeping property prices stable and affordable, Phillip Securities believed further upsides in private residential prices will be limited, forecasting " private residential property prices to see zero to 2 percent growth in 2012 and possibly 5 to 10 percent downward correction by end 2013, considering the substantially higher physical completion coming on stream by 2014."
To date, the market consensus is that a crash in Singapore's property prices is highly unlikely even with the introduction of latest round of cooling measures.
According to AmFraser Securities Research, housing demand is a major function of Singapore's economic foundation, demographics, plans and the macro-environment.
The property market is still buoyant as current unemployment rates is still as low as about 2 percent, a growing gross domestic product per capita of about 3.7 percent in average for next five years, population is poised to hit 6 million in 2016, and a low interest rate environment and high liquidity.
Henceforth, the research house took the view that while the next few months will be crucial in judging demand and the overall impact of the cooling measure on prices, a crash in property prices is unlikely unless there are major demand shocks. Endi
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