2016年国民经济和社会发展计划报告(全文)
Full text: Report on China's economic, social development plan (2016)

 
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二、2016年经济社会发展要引领经济新常态、贯彻发展新理念II. Guiding the New Normal and Applying the New Development Philosophy in 2016
2016年是全面建成小康社会决胜阶段的开局之年,是推进结构性改革的攻坚之年。做好2016年经济工作,对于全面建成小康社会,实现“十三五”奋斗目标,具有十分重要的意义。This is the first year of the decisive stage in finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and it is also an important year for surmounting the difficulties we face in the push toward structural reform. Effectively carrying out our economic work for this year is hugely important to ensuring that we can finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects within the 13th Five-Year Plan Period (2016-2020).
(一)总体要求1. General Requirements
全面贯彻党的十八大和十八届三中、四中、五中全会精神,以邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想、科学发展观为指导,深入贯彻习近平总书记系列重要讲话精神,加强和改善党对经济工作的领导,统筹国内国际两个大局,按照“五位一体”总体布局和“四个全面”战略布局,牢固树立和贯彻落实创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的发展理念,适应经济发展新常态,坚持改革开放,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,坚持稳增长、调结构、惠民生、防风险,实行宏观政策要稳、产业政策要准、微观政策要活、改革政策要实、社会政策要托底的总体思路,保持经济运行在合理区间,战略上坚持持久战,战术上打好歼灭战,着力加强结构性改革,在适度扩大总需求的同时,去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板,提高供给体系质量和效率,提高投资有效性,加快培育新的发展动能,改造提升传统比较优势,增强持续增长动力,推动我国社会生产力水平整体改善,努力实现“十三五”时期经济社会发展的良好开局。

We need to fully implement the guiding principles of the 18th National Party Congress and the third, fourth, and fifth plenary sessions of the 18th CPC Central Committee; follow the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development; and fully put into practice the guidelines from General Secretary Xi Jinping' s major political addresses. We need to strengthen and improve the Party' s leadership over economic work; coordinate China's domestic and international efforts; act in accordance with the overall plan for promoting all-round socialist economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological development and the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy*; and keep firmly in mind and put into practice the philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development. We need to adapt ourselves to the new normal in China's economic development; adhere to the reform and opening up policy as well as the general principle of seeking progress while keeping performance stable; and continue to ensure steady economic growth, make structural adjustments, improve the standard of living, and guard against risks. We need to follow the general guidelines of keeping macro policies stable, industrial policies targeted, micro policies flexible, and reform policies practical, while also making sure social policies meet people's basic needs. The economy needs to continue operating within an appropriate range. We must be strategically prepared for a prolonged struggle, and tactically well prepared so that the challenges we may face can be overcome. We will intensify structural reform-as we increase aggregate demand by an appropriate degree, we will also work to cut overcapacity and excess inventory, deleverage, reduce costs, and strengthen points of weakness in order to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system. Moreover, we will increase the effectiveness of investment, accelerate the fostering of new driving forces for development, upgrade and improve traditional comparative advantages, and strengthen the drivers for sustainable growth so that China's overall productivity improves and its economic and social development gets off to a good start for the 13th Five-Year Plan period.

* The Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy refers to making comprehensive moves to finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, deepen reform, advance the law-based governance of China, and strengthen Party self-conduct.

(二)主要预期目标2. Major Targets
按照上述总体要求,综合考虑需要和可能,提出2016年经济社会发展的主要预期目标:Acting in line with the general requirements listed above and taking into account both what is necessary and what is possible, we have set forth the main targets for China's economic and social development in 2016 as follows:
——保持经济平稳健康发展。国内生产总值预期增长6.5%-7%。主要考虑:一是为“十三五”全面建成小康社会打下好的基础。到2020年全面建成小康社会,“十三五”期间需要经济年均增长6.5%以上,如果今年增速低于6.5%,后几年就需要提高增速。为避免压力推后,今年预期目标设定为6.5%-7%,可以争取主动。二是更加有效地促进就业。从经济增长与就业关系看,6.5%-7%的经济增长能够带动1000万人以上的城镇新增就业。三是更加积极地引导预期增强信心。6.5%-7%的增长预期目标,扩大了可接受的经济增速弹性范围,与我国经济增长潜力和市场预期相吻合,能够起到提振信心的积极作用。同时也要看到,我国发展环境更加错综复杂,经济增速仍在探底之中,实现这一目标还需要更大力度的政策和更加艰苦的努力。

- Ensuring steady and sound economic development

GDP is projected to grow by 6.5-7%. In setting this target, we have made the following considerations: First, such a rate is necessary for laying a good foundation for achieving the goal of finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. To attain this goal by 2020, the economy needs to grow at an annual average rate of above 6.5% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Should the economy grow slower than 6.5% this year, growth rates for the next four years would have to be higher. This year's target of GDP growth between 6.5% and 7% will help us to gain the initiative and avoid increasing pressure for higher growth rates over the next few years. Second, this rate will help to effectively stimulate employment. In view of the correlation between economic growth and employment, a growth rate of between 6.5% and 7% should be able to create more than 10 million urban jobs. Third, such a rate is conducive to guiding market expectations and boosting confidence. As an elastic range of acceptable economic growth rates, this target is in line with China's potential growth rate and market expectations, which will allow it to play a positive role in helping to bolster confidence. At the same time, we are also aware that China will face a more complicated development environment this year and the slowdown in our economic growth has not yet been reversed. This means that stronger policies and greater efforts will be required if we are to achieve the targeted growth rate.

——经济提质增效升级取得新进展。投资、消费保持稳定增长,消费对经济增长的贡献率稳步提高。农业基础进一步加强,工业转型升级取得积极成效,战略性新兴产业加快发展,服务业占国内生产总值比重继续提高。科技进步对经济发展支撑作用增强,研究与试验发展经费与国内生产总值之比稳定提高。单位国内生产总值能耗和二氧化碳排放量分别下降3.4%以上和3.9%以上,万元国内生产总值用水量下降5.1%,化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫、氮氧化物排放量分别下降2%、2%、3%、3%,细颗粒物(PM2.5)未达标地级及以上城市浓度降低3%,地级及以上城市空气质量优良天数比率达到77%,地表水达到或好于Ⅲ类水体比例66.5%,劣V类水体比例控制在9.2%以内。

- Making further progress in achieving a better-quality, more efficient, upgraded economy

Both investment and consumption are projected to continue growing steadily, and the contribution of consumption toward economic growth is also projected to continue rising. The foundation of agriculture will be further strengthened, positive results will be achieved in industrial transformation and upgrading, the growth of strategic emerging industries will accelerate, and the contribution of the value-added of the service sector to GDP will continue to increase. Scientific and technological progress is expected to play a greater role in supporting economic growth and R&D spending as a percentage of GDP will be increased steadily. Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by at least 3.4% and 3.9% respectively, water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP will fall by 5.1%; and chemical oxygen demand is projected to fall by 2%, ammonia nitrogen by 2%, sulfur dioxide emissions by 3%, and nitrogen oxide emissions by 3%. For those cities at prefectural level or above that fell short of the national standards for PM2.5 last year, their PM2.5 concentrations will be cut by 3% this year; and air quality in cities at prefectural level or above is expected to be good or excellent for 77% of the year. The proportion of surface water with a water quality rating of Grade III or higher will reach 66.5%, while the proportion of that lower than Grade V will be kept within 9.2%.

——价格总水平基本稳定。居民消费价格涨幅预期目标为3%左右。主要考虑:一是翘尾因素略高于上年。据测算,今年翘尾因素的影响比上年的0.5%有所上升。二是存在一些新涨价因素。需求偏弱决定了物价不具备大幅反弹的基础,但考虑到人工等成本上升还会推动服务价格上涨,少数农产品存在周期性波动的可能,加上推进价格改革的影响,预计新涨价因素也会有所提升。三是积极引导市场预期。为改善通缩预期,将价格总水平预期目标适当定高一些。

- Keeping the overall price level basically stable

In setting a targeted increase of around 3% for CPI, we have taken the following into account: First, the continued impact from last year's CPI increase will be slightly greater than that of the year before. According to our forecast, the contribution of the previous year's CPI increase on the growth of CPI this year will be slightly higher than last year's 0.5%. Second, new factors will contribute to an increase in prices. Although weak demand will make a significant price rebound almost impossible, there will still be additional factors driving price increases: a rise in prices of services as a result of an increase in labor costs, the possibility of cyclical price fluctuations of a number of agricultural products, and the impact of further price reforms. Third, this target will help to guide market expectations. A target of higher price increases will be conducive to reducing expectations of deflation.

——民生福祉继续增加。城镇新增就业1000万人以上,城镇登记失业率控制在4.5%以内,既突出保就业的底线,又为化解过剩产能、推进企业兼并重组、应对隐性失业显性化留出一定余地。居民收入增长与经济增长同步,城乡收入差距进一步缩小,农村贫困人口减少1000万人以上。户籍人口城镇化率提高1.3个百分点以上。社会保障制度继续完善,社会保险统筹层次进一步提高,覆盖面继续扩大,保障水平适度提高。教育、卫生、文化等基本公共服务覆盖范围和均等化水平不断提高。

- Continuing to improve living standards

More than 10 million new urban jobs are expected to be created this year, and the registered urban unemployment rate will be kept within 4.5%. This will help to ensure that employment remains stable and will also provide leeway to address overcapacity, carry out enterprise mergers and reorganizations, and respond to the issue of hidden unemployment. Personal income will increase in step with economic growth and the income gap between urban and rural residents will continue to narrow. The number of rural residents living in poverty will be reduced by over 10 million and the percentage of the population registered as urban residents will increase by more than 1.3 percentage points. In order to ensure continuous improvement of the social security system, the overall management of social insurance accounts will be turned over to higher-level authorities, coverage will continue to be expanded, and the level of benefits will be increased appropriately. The coverage and equitable delivery of education, health care, culture, and other basic public services will continue to expand.

——国际收支保持基本平衡。货物贸易出口增速高于世界贸易增长水平,进口规模扩大,服务贸易占外贸总额比重继续提高。利用外资保持增长,对外直接投资较快增长。

- Keeping the equilibrium in the balance of payments

The growth rate in the export of goods from China is projected to be faster than that of world trade, the volume of imports is expected to expand, and the proportion of trade in services in relation to the total volume of foreign trade will continue to increase. Foreign investment utilized by China will keep rising, and outbound direct investment is expected to grow rapidly.

(三)宏观经济政策取向3. Orientation of Macroeconomic Policies
中央经济工作会议对适应引领经济发展新常态提出了明确要求,特别是对新常态怎么看、新常态下怎么干,强调了“三个必须”和“十个更加注重”。“十三五”规划《建议》提出了创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享新发展理念,将引领“十三五”乃至更长时期的经济社会发展。实现2016年经济社会发展目标,要围绕引领经济新常态、贯彻发展新理念,在适度扩大总需求的同时,着力加强供给侧结构性改革,落实好宏观政策要稳、产业政策要准、微观政策要活、改革政策要实、社会政策要托底的总体思路,做到相互配合、协调发力。Clear requirements were put forth at the Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing last December for adapting to and guiding the new normal in economic development. In particular, the conference examined how the new normal should be viewed and handled, and in light of this, three approaches we must follow and ten areas of effort we need to highlight were emphasized. The new philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development, put forward in the CPC Central Committee's Recommendations for the 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development, will serve as a guide for economic and social development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and beyond. To achieve the targets for economic and social development in 2016, we must keep firmly in mind the requirements for guiding the new normal in the economy and put into practice the new development philosophy. We need to channel greater energy into supply-side structural reform while increasing aggregate demand by an appropriate degree. We need to implement the general philosophy of keeping macro policies stable, industrial policies targeted, micro policies flexible, and reform policies practical, while also making sure social policies meet people's basic needs; at the same time, we need to make sure all policies are well coordinated and work together to create synergy.
——宏观政策要稳。稳定和完善宏观经济政策,加强区间调控、定向调控、相机调控,加大对实体经济支持力度,确保经济运行在合理区间。

- Keeping macro policies stable

We will ensure continuity in and make improvements to macroeconomic policies, strengthen range-based, targeted, and well-timed regulation, increase support for the real economy, and make sure the economy operates within an appropriate range.

一方面,积极的财政政策要加大力度。今年拟安排全国财政赤字2.18万亿元,比去年增加5600亿元,赤字率3%,其中,中央财政赤字1.4万亿元,地方财政赤字7800亿元。一是阶段性提高财政赤字率,在适当增加财政支出和中央预算内投资的同时,主要用于弥补减税降费带来的财政减收,保障政府应该承担的支出责任。二是优化财政支出结构,创新财政支出方式,盘活财政资金存量,该保的保住,该减的减下来。三是适当增加地方专项债券发行,主要用于支持土地储备、交通、水利及城镇基础设施等有一定收益的项目建设。继续发行地方政府置换债券。On the one hand, we will increase the intensity of our proactive fiscal policy. The government deficit for 2016 is projected to be 2.18 trillion yuan nationwide, which represents a year-on-year increase of 560 billion yuan and a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3%. Of this amount, the central government deficit will be 1.4 trillion yuan, and the remaining 780 billion yuan will come from the local government deficit. First, a scaled-up deficit in the short term will allow us to increase government spending and central budgetary investment by an appropriate amount, and more importantly to make up for the decrease in government revenue caused by tax and fee reductions, thus ensuring the government can fully meet all of its spending responsibilities. Second, we will optimize the structure of budgetary expenditures, make innovations in the way budgetary funds are used, put surplus budgetary funds to better use, and increase or reduce budgetary expenditures as necessary. Third, an appropriate increase will be allowed in the issuance of special bonds by local governments mainly to support land reserve, transportation, water conservancy, urban infrastructure, and other projects that will yield a certain degree of revenue. Local governments will continue to issue bonds to replace outstanding debts.
另一方面,稳健的货币政策要灵活适度。保持流动性合理充裕和社会融资总量适度增长,广义货币(M2)余额增长13%左右,与去年实际增速基本持平。一是疏通传导机制,降低实体经济融资成本,提高金融服务实体经济效率,推进解决融资难融资贵问题。二是拓宽债权、股权等融资渠道,发展项目收益债、高收益债券及可转换债券、可续期债券、永续票据等股债结合产品,提高直接融资比重。三是完善人民币汇率市场化形成机制,坚持有管理的浮动汇率制度,增强汇率双向浮动弹性,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定,有效管控资本跨境异常流动。On the other hand, we will appropriately increase the flexibility of our prudent monetary policy. We will maintain reasonably ample liquidity and allow an appropriate increase in the aggregate financing of the economy. The M2 money supply is projected to grow by around 13% in 2016, roughly the same as last year. First, we will ensure a smooth transmission mechanism for monetary policy, lower financing costs for the real economy, ensure the financial sector serves the real economy more efficiently, and help solve the problem of financing being difficult and costly to obtain. Second, with the aim of expanding the issuance of bonds and equities as well as other financing channels, we will develop project revenue bonds, high-yield bonds, convertibles, extendable bonds, perpetual notes, and other hybrid securities. We will also raise the proportion of direct financing. Third, we will improve the market-based RMB exchange rate regime and continue to implement a managed floating exchange rate system, thereby allowing the RMB exchange rate to float more freely while also ensuring basic stability is maintained and the rate remains at an appropriate and balanced level. We will exert effective control over abnormal cross-border flow of capital.
在有效实施财政政策、货币政策的同时,统筹运用产业政策、区域政策、投资政策、消费政策、价格政策,增强政策之间的协调配合,加强逆周期调节,为经济发展和结构性改革营造稳定的宏观环境。While effectively implementing fiscal and monetary policies, we will coordinate the use of and increase compatibility between policies on industrial development, regional development, investment, consumption, and prices and strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments so as to create a stable macro environment for economic development and structural reform.
——产业政策要准。准确定位结构性改革方向,以供给创新促进需求增长,推动形成新的增长点。一是坚持创新驱动。强化创新激励和创新成果应用,实施科技成果转移转化行动和知识产权战略行动,改革科技成果产权制度,落实股权期权税收政策,完善分红奖励办法。发挥双创、“互联网+”集众智汇众力的乘数效应。二是注重激活存量。加快技术改造升级,修复现有产业和企业动力,提升产业层次,大力发展实体经济,推动中小企业创新转型发展。三是加快绿色发展。推进生态文明先行先试和制度建设,构建绿色产业体系和空间格局,引导形成绿色生产方式和生活方式。

- Keeping industrial policies targeted

The direction of structural reform needs to be accurately determined; we need to stimulate increases in demand by making innovations on the supply side, and encourage the emergence of new areas of growth. First, we will continue to pursue innovation-driven development. In order to increase incentives for innovation and promote its practical application, we will implement action plans to encourage the commoditization and application of scientific and technological advances and carry out the intellectual property rights strategy, reform the system of property rights on scientific and technological advances, carry out preferential tax policies on equity and option rights, and improve the methods for distributing dividends and giving rewards. We will give full play to the role of entrepreneurship and innovation initiatives and the Internet Plus in pooling the wisdom and strength of the general public. Second, we will focus on invigorating existing resources. We will accelerate technological transformation and upgrading, revitalize existing industries and enterprises, take our industries to a new level, redouble efforts to develop the real economy, and encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to develop on the basis of innovation and transformation. Third, we will move faster to promote green development. We will encourage exploration and experimentation in promoting ecological progress and improve related institutions, and work hard to put in place an industrial system and spatial planning that are eco-friendly to spur on the development of green production and promote a green lifestyle.

——微观政策要活。完善市场环境,激发企业活力和消费者潜力。一是以解决放权不同步、不协调、不到位等问题为重点,深化行政审批制度改革,进一步放宽市场准入,提高监管能力和水平,为大众创业万众创新、企业投资经营和群众办事提供更加高效便捷的服务。二是保护各种所有制企业产权和合法利益,实施公平竞争审查制度,消除市场壁垒和地方保护,打破商品和要素自由流动限制,为各种所有制企业创新发展营造宽松的投资和市场经营环境。在项目核准、融资服务、财税政策、土地使用等方面,对民间投资与政府、国企投资一视同仁。三是通过创新供给、改善供给质量和效率,提高有效供给能力,促进供给与需求有效对接,满足不同消费群体多元化、个性化需求。

- Keeping micro policies flexible

We will improve the market environment, invigorate businesses, and unlock the potential of consumers. First, with a focus on addressing the issue of the unsynchronized, uncoordinated, and incomplete delegation of powers to lower level governments, we will deepen reform of the government review and approval system, further relax restrictions on market access, and impose stronger and more effective oversight, thereby ensuring more efficient and convenient services for entrepreneurship and innovation, business investment and operations, and the general public. Second, in order to protect the property rights and legitimate interests of enterprises under all types of ownership, we will implement a review system to ensure fair competition, remove market barriers and local protectionism, and lift restrictions to ensure the free flow of commodities and factors of production, thus creating a relaxed investment and operating environment in which enterprises under all types of ownership can develop themselves through innovation. We will ensure that nongovernmental investments and investments by governments and SOEs are treated equally in terms of project review, financing services, fiscal and tax policies, and the use of land. Third, we will enhance our ability to provide effective supply and ensure it better corresponds to demand by creating new supply and improving the quality and efficiency of supply, which will ensure that the diversified and personalized demand of different consumer groups is fully satisfied.

——改革政策要实。进一步提高改革方案质量,完善落实机制,把握好改革试点,确保改革见到实效,使群众有更多获得感。一是坚持问题导向。抓住主要矛盾,着力推进牵一发动全身的重要改革,依靠改革解决发展中的突出矛盾和问题。加快推进行政审批、投融资、价格、国企、财税金融、社会等领域改革。二是加强统筹协调。更加注重改革的系统性整体性协调性,做好重大和关键性改革的顶层设计,注重相关改革协同配套,形成改革合力。三是狠抓改革落地。解决好改革方案与实际相结合的问题、利益调整中的阻力问题、落实改革的责任担当问题,发挥基层首创精神,鼓励地方进行差别化探索,把改革落准落细落实。

- Keeping reform policies practicable

We will continue to raise the quality of our reform plans, improve reform implementation mechanisms, and make good use of pilot reforms, so that the results of reform are tangible and our people gain an increasingly greater sense of benefit. First, we will adhere to a problem-oriented approach. With a focus on resolving the main problems, we will channel our energy into carrying out important reforms that have a bearing on the overall situation, and we will rely on reforms to resolve the serious issues and problems that are hindering development. We will accelerate reform related to government review and approval; investment and financing; prices; SOEs; fiscal, tax, and financial systems; and social management. Second, we will strengthen coordination. In making reform more systemic, comprehensive, and balanced, we will ensure that major and critical reforms are guided by effective top-level planning, while also coordinating work on related reforms so as to create synergy. Third, we will spare no effort to ensure that reforms are fully implemented. We will work hard to address the issues of how to make sure that reform plans are tailored to reality, how to remove obstructions created during the adjustment of interests, and how to ensure the assumption of responsibilities for implementing reforms. We will give full rein to the initiative of community-level organizations and encourage local governments to explore which methods for implementing reform are best suited to local conditions, thereby ensuring that reform implementation is accurate, thorough, and effective.

——社会政策要托底。守住民生底线,发挥社会保障的稳定器作用。一方面,增加公共服务供给。坚持普惠性、保基本、均等化、可持续方向,保障群众基本生活,保障基本公共服务。另一方面,完善兜底性制度。分类扶持贫困家庭,增加失业救助、最低生活保障方面的财政资金,对无法依靠产业扶持和就业帮助脱贫的贫困家庭实施兜底保障政策。

- Making sure social policies meet people's basic needs

We will work hard to ensure the wellbeing of our people, giving full play to the role of the social safety net as a stabilizer. On the one hand, we will increase the supply of public services. Public services should be inclusive, equitable, and sustainable, and should guarantee the basic needs of the people. We will ensure everyone has access to basic necessities and basic public services. On the other hand, we will improve systems to ensure there is a cushion in place for those most in need. We will provide support to economically disadvantaged families based on their type of situation, increasing government funds for unemployment assistance and subsistence allowances, while ensuring that those poor families who are not supported by industry-led poverty-alleviation or employment assistance programs are covered by social security programs and have their basic needs met.

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