从2015年底开始,“供给侧结构性改革(三去一降一补)”一词不断被各大媒体重复,那么到底什么是供给侧改革?供给侧改革为何如此重要?推进供给侧改革要注意哪些问题?
就这些话题,周报君特邀中国国际经济交流中心副总经济师徐洪才撰文。双语摘编如下:
什么是供给侧结构性改革?
What is supply-side structural reform?
我国围绕“三去一降一补”五大任务(即去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板)展开供给侧结构性改革。
China is pushing ahead with the five priority tasks through supply-side structural reform-cutting excess capacity, destocking, deleveraging, lowering corporate costs and improving weak links.
供给侧改革为什么重要?
Why is it so important?
2008年金融危机以来,有效需求不足是世界经济运行中的重大难题。表面上,我国经济运行似乎也存在这一问题,但实质上,是供给侧质量不高、供给结构不能适应需求结构,导致需求受到压抑和外溢。供给侧质量不高,已经影响到经济转型升级,阻碍了内生经济增长动力的形成。
Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, one of the major challenges for the world economy is dealing with inadequate effective demand. The Chinese economy is facing this issue as well, but the essence of the problem is that the quality of the supply does not satisfy the demand. The supply side's poor quality has impeded China's plans for economic transformation, upgrading, and growth.
正确理解供给侧改革
Correct comprehension
一些人把“去产能”简单理解为“去产量”,实际上在“产能过剩”和“开工不足”的情况下,行政性减产并无实际意义,当产量下降导致价格上涨,落后产能就会死灰复燃。
Some people mistake “cutting excess capacity” as “cutting output.” Government orders to cut excess capacity could be meaningless under certain circumstances-when prices rise because of drops in output, industries will naturally put their shut-down production capacity into operation again.
政府作用在于制定能源资源消耗、污染物排放和安全标准,在标准面前人人平等,使不达标的企业退出市场,让市场优胜劣汰机制自动发挥作用。
The government should instead formulate standards concerning energy and resource consumption, pollution and workshop safety. The government should also ensure that everyone adheres to the same standards, order the termination of firms which fail to obey the standards and let the market play its role.
寻求重点突破
Seeking breakthroughs in key sectors
总体上,我赞成对经济形势未来走势判断是L型的,是没有问题的,这是基于目前国情和现实经济格局做出的科学判断。但是我们通过推进供给侧结构性改革释放改革红利,其实我觉得这方面潜力还是很大的。
China's economic growth will follow an L-shape trend, which is in line with the current national condition and economic structure. However, we can unleash more potential by advancing supply-side structural reform.
如果中国企业在质量的标准、安全的标准,市场的标准有所提高,供给侧的质量有所提升,少进口一点,比如说少进口100亿美元,就可以拉动GDP增长0.1个百分点。再比如在重化工、精细化工领域,我们产品质量不好,需要大量进口,每年要花五六千亿美元进口。每年芯片这一项就要花两千亿美元进口。要引领经济发展新常态,要向产业中高端迈进,应该在供给侧某些重点领域进行突破。
If Chinese firms can achieve breakthroughs in product safety and quality, less will be imported. For example, importing $10 billion less a year will push up GDP growth by 0.1 percent. Moreover, in the heavy and fine chemical sectors, we have to pay $500-600 billion per year to import foreign products because of the poor quality of domestic products. China must upgrade its industries and make breakthroughs in some key sectors.
杠杆转移
Shifting leverage
在新的一年里推动债转股操作,从企业负债表来看好像在微观层面企业债务率过高了,造成潜在金融风险,必须把企业杠杆率降下来,但是这又受到宏观经济的制约。要稳增长杠杆率必然会上升。因此,存在明显的矛盾,这里就涉及到杠杆转移。
Debt-for-equity swaps will be promoted in 2017 because corporate debt ratio is too high, which may intensify potential financial risks. Corporate leverage ratios must be lowered. However, as China strives to stabilize growth, the leverage ratio of the entire economy will inevitably rise. Therefore, the transfer of leverage is needed.
一方面,从宏观层面,公共部门、政府要加杠杆,从微观层面,居民也要加杠杆。另一方面,通过把企业债权变成股权,同时引进新的战略投资者,优化产权结构、公司治理结构,建立中长期激励机制,这些都是2017年改革的重点领域。
On one hand, both the public sector, the government and residents need to increase leverage; on the other hand, businesses will be better off through debt-for-equity swaps, as the scheme will help introduce new strategic investors, improve the ownership and corporate governance structure, and establish medium and long-term incentive mechanisms—all of which are key areas for reform in 2017.
市场化手段
Market-oriented measures
在供给侧结构性改革过程中,因行政手段、政府主导往往有意无意地被强化,行政手段见效快,用起来顺手,但由于缺乏市场机制约束,一阵风过后就会强劲反弹。
During the reform process, administrative measures are emphasized because they can produce rapid results and are easy to use. But without the existence of market-oriented schemes, these measures will soon lose effectiveness.
我们要防止一种倾向,将传统的行政干预微观经济事务视为供给侧结构性改革,这是有失偏颇的。在目前市场机制还很不完善的情况下,政府要积极引导、培育市场机制,来解决供给侧结构不合理和供给质量比较低的问题,最终落脚点还是要让市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用。
We must stop using administrative intervention on micro economic affairs as a way to advance supply-side structural reform. It is reasonable for the government to guide and nurture market schemes in order to solve problems caused by poor quality of the supply side. However, the ultimate goal should be to make the market play a decisive role in resource allocation.
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