2017年国民经济和社会发展计划报告(全文)
Full text: Report on China's economic, social development plan (2017)

 
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二、2017年经济社会发展的总体要求、主要目标和政策取向II. Requirements, Objectives, and Policies for Economic and Social Development in 2017
2017年是实施“十三五”规划的重要一年,是供给侧结构性改革的深化之年。中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会将要召开,具有重大而深远意义。做好2017年经济工作至关重要。2017 is an important year in implementing the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) and in carrying out further supply-side structural reform. 2017 will also witness the convocation of the 19th National Congress of the CPC, an event of far-reaching significance. So it is of paramount importance for us to effectively carry out our economic work over the coming year.
(一)总体要求1. General Requirements
在以习近平同志为核心的党中央领导下,高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜,全面贯彻党的十八大和十八届三中、四中、五中、六中全会精神,以邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想、科学发展观为指导,深入贯彻习近平总书记系列重要讲话精神和治国理政新理念新思想新战略,统筹推进“五位一体”总体布局和协调推进“四个全面”战略布局,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,牢固树立和贯彻落实新发展理念,适应把握引领经济发展新常态,坚持以提高发展质量和效益为中心,坚持宏观政策要稳、产业政策要准、微观政策要活、改革政策要实、社会政策要托底的政策思路,坚持以推进供给侧结构性改革为主线,适度扩大总需求,加强预期引导,深化创新驱动,全面做好稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生、防风险各项工作,保持经济平稳健康发展和社会和谐稳定,以优异成绩迎接党的十九大胜利召开。

The requirements for 2017 are as follows:

-- uphold the leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core

-- hold high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics

-- fully implement the guidelines from the 18th National Party Congress and from the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth plenary sessions of the 18th Party Central Committee

-- follow the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development

-- put into practice the guiding principles from General Secretary Xi Jinping's major addresses and his new concepts, thoughts, and strategies on the governance of China

-- promote coordinated economic, political, cultural, social,and ecological progress and balanced implementation of the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy*

-- seek progress while keeping performance stable

-- build a strong understanding of and put into practice China's new development philosophy

-- adapt to, approach in the right way, and steer the new normal in economic development

-- take strengthening the quality and benefits of development as a core priority

-- ensure macro policies are stable, industrial policies are targeted, micro policies are flexible, reform policies are practical, and that social policies ensure basic needs are met

-- focus on supply-side structural reform

-- expand aggregate demand as appropriate

-- better guide expectations

-- ensure development is increasingly innovation-driven

-- work to keep growth stable, promote reform, make structural adjustments, improve living standards, and guard against risks

-- maintain stable and sound economic development as well as social harmony and stability

Fulfilling these requirements should ensure that we greet the 19th National Party Congress with outstanding achievements.

* To make comprehensive moves to finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, deepen reform, advance the law-based governance of China, and strengthen Party self-governance.

(二)主要预期目标2. Main Objectives
按照上述总体要求,综合考虑需要和可能,提出2017年经济社会发展的主要预期目标:Keeping the above requirements in mind and fully considering both what is necessary and what is possible, we have set the following objectives for economic and social development in 2017:
——经济增速保持在合理区间。国内生产总值预期增长6.5%左右,在实际工作中争取更好结果。主要考虑:一是符合客观实际。我国经济发展已经进入新常态,经济增速从高速增长转向中高速增长。2016年我国经济总量超过74万亿元,今年预期6.5%左右的增量,超过2016年6.7%的增量,同世界主要国家相比也是很高的速度。二是符合全面建成小康社会目标要求。与“十三五”规划目标相衔接,在2016年已经实现6.7%增长的基础上,今后4年,只要年均增长6.5%左右,就可以实现2020年国内生产总值比2010年翻一番的目标。三是能够满足就业目标需要。保持经济发展速度、推动经济发展,根本还是要不断解决好人民群众普遍关心的突出问题。四是有利于形成良好社会预期。2017年面临的国内外环境仍然复杂多变,要引导各方面更加注重坚持以提高发展质量和效益为中心,集中精力推动结构优化升级,积极应对各种不确定因素影响,为深入推进供给侧结构性改革创造良好环境。

-- Economic growth within an appropriate range

GDP is projected to grow by 6.5% approximately; however in practice, we will strive for better. In setting this objective, we have taken the following into account:

First, the projected GDP growth rate is in keeping with conditions in China. Our country is in a new normal in economic development, having shifted from a high to a medium-high growth rate. In 2016 China's aggregate economic output exceeded 74 trillion yuan; and this year's projected growth rate of around 6.5% will result in a larger increase in economic output than last year's increase resulting from a 6.7% growth rate. Moreover, a growth rate of 6.5% is much higher than most major economies.

Second, the projected growth rate is in line with the goal of finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. China's economy grew by 6.7% in 2016, so an average growth rate of around 6.5% over the next four years would be sufficient to accomplish the objective set out in the 13th Five-Year Plan to ensure that China's GDP in 2020 is double what it was in 2010.

Third, a 6.5% growth rate is needed to achieve the employment objective. All efforts to keep the economy growing at an appropriate rate and to promote economic development are for nothing more than to address the problems which are of most concern to the public.

Fourth, this rate of growth is conducive to fostering healthy public expectations. Facing complex and volatile situations at home and abroad in 2017, we need to provide guidance to all sectors of society so as to focus efforts on improving the quality and benefits of development and promoting structural improvement and upgrading, ensure a proactive response to the impact arising from various uncertainties, and create a favorable environment for supply-side structural reform.

图表9:国内生产总值和经济增长率 新华社发

Figure 9. GDP and Growth Rate
——就业形势保持总体稳定。城镇新增就业1100万人以上,比2016年预期目标多100万人,城镇登记失业率控制在4.5%以内。主要考虑:一是就业压力较大。预计2017年仍有1500万左右新成长劳动力进入市场,加上去产能行业职工转岗需求有所增加,考虑退休等腾退的城镇就业岗位,需要新增约1100万人的城镇就业。二是就业容量不断扩大。随着产业结构调整,特别是创新创业和服务业发展,就业弹性系数明显提高,6.5%左右的经济增长,可以实现就业目标,实际完成数量还可以力争更多一些。三是实现城乡居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步的需要。体现了党和政府以人民为中心的发展思想和民生为先、就业为本的执政理念,有利于稳定预期和增强发展信心。

-- Overall stable employment

Over 11 million new urban jobs will be created, 1 million more than the projection for 2016, and the registered urban unemployment rate should stay within 4.5%. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account:

First, employment pressure is mounting. About 15 million new workers will enter the job market in 2017, and there will also be a slightly larger number of laid-off workers that need to be reemployed in other industries due to the scaling-down of overcapacity; on the other hand, we will see jobs opening up in urban areas as a result of retirements. Taking these factors into consideration, we need to create around 11 million new urban jobs this year.

Second, employment capacity continues to increase. Due to adjustments in the structure of industry, particularly in terms of entrepreneurship and innovation and the development of the service sector, China's employment elasticity has risen considerably. A growth rate of around 6.5% should ensure that we fulfill our employment target and will allow us to work toward exceeding it.

Third, we need to ensure increases in personal income are basically in step with economic growth. These objectives are a reflection of the Party and government's vision of people-centered development as well as the governance principle that the people's wellbeing comes first and ensuring employment is a top priority. They are also conducive to ensuring stable public expectations and strengthening people's confidence in development.

——价格总水平基本稳定。居民消费价格涨幅预期目标为3%左右。主要考虑:一是2017年翘尾因素约为0.6%,与去年基本持平。二是2016年9月以来,工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)由负转正,工业领域通缩压力有所缓解,但PPI向下游产业和终端消费传导,以及进口商品价格传导和国际大宗商品价格上升走势的影响,将会形成新的涨价因素。三是为价格改革预留出空间。

-- Overall stable prices

The CPI is projected to increase by around 3%. In setting this objective, we have taken the following into account:

First, the carryover effect from the CPI increase in 2016 will be 0.6%, which is basically the same as that of the year before.

Second, the producer price index (PPI) shifted from negative to positive territory in September 2016 and has remained there ever since, and the deflationary pressure on manufacturing has eased to some extent. However, as the effects of the PPI increase are transmitted to downstream industries and toward end consumption, and as the prices of imported goods and international commodity prices rise, new factors will emerge to push up prices.

Third, such a CPI increase leaves us with room to undertake price reform.

——国际收支保持基本平衡。继续促进货物贸易回稳向好,服务贸易较快增长,利用外资规模保持稳定,对外投资健康发展。主要考虑:一是世界经济和贸易增长低迷的状况短期内难以改变,但随着促进外贸稳增长调结构政策成效进一步显现,货物进出口有望继续回稳向好。二是电信、计算机和信息等高附加值服务出口继续较快增长,服务贸易结构将更加优化。三是大力营造公平、透明、可预期的法治化市场营商环境,利用外资将保持稳定,质量将进一步提高。四是对外投资活跃,为避免非理性投资引发经营、债务等风险,应稳妥有序推进对外投资。

-- A basic balance in international payments

We will continue to promote a steady rise in the trade of goods, rapid growth in the trade of services, stability in the use of foreign investment, and the healthy development of outbound investment. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account:

First, a turnaround in global economic and trade growth is unlikely in the short term. However, as the policy for promoting steady growth and structural adjustment in foreign trade continues to have an effect, the volume of trade in goods is expected to pick up again.

Second, as the export of high-value-added services such as telecommunications, computers, and information continues to increase rapidly, the structure of trade in services will improve.

Third, significant efforts will be made to create a fair, transparent, and predictable law-based market environment so as to ensure foreign investment remains stable and improves in quality.

Fourth, outbound investment will be robust. In order to avoid irrational investment which may give rise to operational or debt risks, growth in this area should be promoted in an orderly and prudent manner.

——发展的质量和效益进一步提高。消费对经济增长的贡献率提高。农业基础进一步加强,去产能工作扎实推进,战略性新兴产业加快发展,服务业增加值占国内生产总值的比重继续提高。研究与试验发展经费投入强度和科技进步贡献率进一步提高。单位国内生产总值能耗下降3.4%以上、二氧化碳排放下降4.0%,主要污染物排放量继续下降,大气、水环境质量进一步改善。主要考虑:贯彻创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的发展理念,促进产业转型升级、提质增效,全面提高产品和服务质量,加强节能环保和生态建设,符合推进供给侧结构性改革的要求,有利于创造新的增长点,提高经济增长潜力,推动经济保持中高速增长、迈向中高端水平。

-- Improved quality and benefits in development

The contribution of consumption to economic growth will increase. The foundation of agriculture will be further strengthened; solid progress will be made in cutting overcapacity; the development of emerging strategic industries will be accelerated; and increases in the contribution of the value-added of the service sector to GDP will be sustained. More will be spent on research and development and there will be an increase in the contribution of scientific and technological progress to economic growth. Energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by at least 3.4%, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be cut by 4.0%, reductions in the emissions of major pollutants will continue, and air and water quality will be further improved. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account:

We need to put into practice the philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development; see that industries are transformed and upgraded, that their quality and performance improves, and that the quality of all products and services increases; and ensure that energy conservation, environmental protection, and ecological improvement efforts are strengthened. These objectives are in line with the efforts to advance supply-side structural reform, and can help to create new growth areas, increase the potential for economic growth, and ensure the economy maintains a medium-high growth rate and moves toward the medium-high end.

图表10:三次产业占国内生产总值比重 新华社发

Figure 10. Contribution to GDP by the Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary Industries
——民生福祉进一步改善。农村贫困人口再减少1000万人以上,完成340万人易地扶贫搬迁建设任务。户籍人口城镇化率提高1个百分点以上,农业转移人口和其他常住人口在城镇落户1300万人以上。教育卫生文化等基本公共服务均等化水平进一步提高,义务教育巩固率和高中阶段教育毛入学率稳步提高。社会保障制度进一步完善,覆盖面继续扩大,保障水平适度提升。城乡居民基本医保人均财政补助标准提高到450元,大病保险筹资水平进一步提高。人口自然增长率7.5‰左右。主要考虑:全面落实以人民为中心的发展思想,在学有所教、劳有所得、病有所医、老有所养、住有所居上持续取得新进展。

-- Improvements in living standards

The number of people living in poverty in rural areas will be reduced by at least 10 million, and 3.4 million people will be relocated from inhospitable areas so as to help them shake off poverty. The percentage of registered urban residents will increase by more than 1 percentage point. Urban residency will be granted to an additional 13 million people with rural household registration living in urban areas and other permanent urban residents. Access to basic public services such as education, health, and culture will become more equitable. The retention rate of compulsory education and the gross enrollment ratio for senior secondary education will continue to rise. The social security system will be further improved with more beneficiaries receiving coverage and an appropriate increase in benefits. Per capita government subsidies for basic medical insurance for rural and non-working urban residents will increase to 450 yuan, while the level of financing for the major disease insurance scheme will also be raised. The natural population growth rate will be about 7.5 thousandths. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account:

We must fully implement our vision of people-centered development and work for further progress in ensuring that the Chinese people enjoy the rights to education, employment, medical treatment, old-age care, and housing.

图表11:城镇居民、农村居民收入增长及城乡居民收入比 新华社发

Figure 11. Urban and Rural Personal Income: Increases and Comparisons
(三)宏观经济政策取向3. Macroeconomic policies
中央经济工作会议强调,稳中求进工作总基调是治国理政的重要原则,也是做好经济工作的方法论。2017年贯彻好这个总基调具有特别重要的意义。稳是主基调,稳是大局,在稳的前提下要在关键领域有所进取,在把握好度的前提下奋发有为。实现2017年经济社会发展目标,要坚持稳中求进工作总基调,保持宏观经济政策连续性和稳定性,继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。财政政策要更加积极有效,今年赤字率拟按3%安排,财政赤字2.38万亿元,比去年增加2000亿元。货币政策要保持稳健中性,今年广义货币M2和社会融资规模余额预期增长均为12%左右。At the recent Central Economic Work Conference, it was noted that seeking progress while keeping performance stable was not only an important governance principle but also an effective method for carrying out economic work. It is particularly important to uphold this principle in 2017. Stability is of primary and overarching significance: under the condition of keeping performance stable, we will work for progress in key sectors, and under the condition of maintaining a well-balanced pace of work, we will strive to deliver better results. To attain the objectives for economic and social development in 2017, we must seek progress while keeping performance stable, maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. We must ensure that fiscal policy is more proactive and effective; a debt-GDP ratio of 3% is projected for this year and the government deficit will be 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 200 billion yuan over last year. We must also ensure that prudency and neutrality is maintained in monetary policy; both the M2 money supply and aggregate financing in the economy are expected to grow by around 12% in 2017.
同时,加强各方面政策协调配合,统筹协调运用好中国特色宏观调控政策,更好发挥财政、货币、改革、产业、创新、就业、区域、投资、消费、贸易、价格、土地、环保等政策的协同组合效应,提高政策的精准性和有效性。At the same time, we will strengthen coordination and support between policies, make effective use of macroeconomic policies with Chinese characteristics, and see that fiscal, monetary, reform, industrial, innovation, employment, regional, investment, consumption, trade, pricing, land, and environmental protection policies work together more effectively and that their precision and efficacy increase.
以财政、货币政策为支撑,投资、消费、贸易等政策为配合,供给侧结构性改革政策发力,着力化解供需结构性矛盾。大力实施减税降费政策,充分发挥中央财政资金“四两拨千斤”的引导带动作用,持续推进“放管服”改革、国企改革、价格改革,强化精准产业政策指导,着力纾缓实体经济困难。加大财政金融政策支持,实施差别化区域政策,注重就业和社会保障政策兜底,着力促进区域协调协同发展。深入推进农业供给侧结构性改革,完善农业补贴、投资、信贷、保险、用地等政策,支持农业技术创新,着力解决三农领域问题。通过稳健的货币政策、精准的产业政策和土地政策,深化金融体制改革,强化市场监管,防范和化解财政金融风险,着力防控资金脱实向虚和房地产波动风险。加大政策解读和信息发布力度,进一步完善产权保护制度,着力引导形成良好社会预期。具体工作中,注重聚焦“6个关键领域”着力攻坚,带动全局发展。

-- Addressing structural conflicts between supply and demand

With fiscal and monetary policies as main pillars, and with the support of investment, consumption, and trade policies, we will work to exert the role of supply-side structural reform policy.

-- Alleviating the difficulties in the real economy

We will take strong measures to cut taxes and fees, fully utilize central government investment to guide and attract investment from private sources; continue to promote reforms on SOEs, on pricing, and on streamlining administration, delegating more powers, improving regulation, and providing better services; and provide more targeted policy guidance.

-- Promoting coordinated and integrated development between regions

We will increase fiscal and financial policy support, implement differentiated regional policies, and ensure that employment and social security policies meet basic needs.

-- Solving problems related to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers

We will fully carry out supply-side structural reform in agriculture, improve agriculture-related subsidy, investment, credit, insurance, and land-use policies, and support technological innovation in agriculture.

-- Preventing investment from being diverted out of the real economy and controlling real estate fluctuations

By utilizing prudent monetary policy and targeted industrial and land policies, we will deepen financial reforms, strengthen market oversight, and prevent and defuse fiscal and financial risks.

-- Providing guidance to ensure positive public expectations

We will do more to explain government policies and to release information to the public and will further improve the property rights protection system.

In relation to specific work, we will focus on the following six areas so as to advance overall development.

一是聚焦制度创新激发市场活力。深化重要领域和关键环节改革,强化体制机制创新,增加制度供给,有针对性解决制约经济社会发展的突出矛盾和问题,提高改革整体效能,力求取得新的突破。

First, carrying on institutional innovation to revitalize the market

We will deepen reform in major areas and key sectors, step up innovation in systems and mechanisms, increase institutional supply, take targeted steps to solve prominent conflicts and problems holding back economic and social development, improve the overall effectiveness of reform, and strive for further breakthroughs.

二是聚焦振兴实体经济提升供给水平。深入推进“三去一降一补”,加快产业政策创新转型,优化生产力布局,努力实现供给体系由中低端产品为主向适应需求变化的中高端产品为主转变。

Second, revitalizing the real economy to provide better products

We will intensify efforts to cut overcapacity, reduce excess inventory, deleverage, lower costs, and strengthen areas of weakness; move faster to create new industrial policies and upgrade old ones, and improve the distribution of productive forces, in a bid to bring about a shift from a supply of predominantly medium-low end products to mainly supplying medium-high end ones that conform to changes in demand.

三是聚焦创新驱动培育壮大新动能。全面实施创新驱动发展战略,完善创新支持政策体系,着力增加创新资源供给,深入推进大众创业万众创新,促进发展动能接续转换,提高全要素生产率。

Third, advancing innovation-driven development to foster and strengthen new driving forces

We will fully implement the innovation-driven development strategy, improve policies in support of innovation, increase the supply of innovative resources, provide greater encouragement for business startups and innovations by the general public, promote the replacement of old drivers of development with new ones, and ensure total-factor productivity increases.

四是聚焦扩大有效需求稳定宏观环境。顺应需求升级大趋势,努力增加高品质产品和服务供给,提高政府投资效率,激发民间投资、社会资本活力,促进供给结构和需求结构有效匹配、消费升级和有效投资良性互动,实现更高质量、更有效率、更加公平、更可持续的发展。

Fourth, increasing effective demand to keep the macro environment stable

As the upgrade in demand continues, we will work to increase the supply of quality goods and services and the efficiency of government investment, inject vigor into private investment and private capital, and work to create a balance between supply and demand and a healthy interaction between upgraded consumption and effective investment, so as to ensure development becomes better in quality, more efficient, more equitable, and more sustainable.

五是聚焦重点领域重点区域有效防范化解风险。增强忧患意识,坚持底线思维,以防范金融风险、企业杠杆率过高、房地产市场泡沫积累、地方政府性债务及基层财政困难等风险为重点,创新完善风险处置方式,坚决守住底线,维护社会大局稳定。

Fifth, effectively preventing and defusing risks in key sectors and regions

We will become more aware of potential dangers and keep in mind worst-case scenarios. With a focus on preventing financial risks, excessive corporate leverage, an accumulation of property bubbles, inflated local government debt, and financial difficulties among county and township governments as well as other risks, we will create new and better ways of dealing with risk and never allow the line to be crossed on these risks so as to safeguard social stability.

六是聚焦民生改善促进社会和谐。落实以人民为中心的发展思想,着力化解结构性就业矛盾,推进精准扶贫精准脱贫,提高基本公共服务水平,加快发展教育、养老、卫生计生、文化、体育等社会事业,采取有力有效措施,改善生态环境,提升人民群众获得感和幸福度。

Sixth, improving people's lives to promote social harmony

Guided by the vision of people-centered development, we will work to solve the structural problems related to employment, use targeted measures to tackle poverty, provide better basic public services, speed up the development of social programs such as education, elderly care, health and family planning, culture, and sports, and take stronger, more effective measures to improve the environment so as to ensure our people have a greater sense of benefit and a higher level of happiness.

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