In March this year, the world crude oil price reached an all-time high in the past nine years. Later, the OPEC increased the quota of crude oil production many times in order to stabilize the oil price. However, according to analysts, the oil price in a certain period of time will remain high and fluctuate due to growing demand for crude oil and factors of speculation.

It is analyzed in the Report on China's Foreign Trade Situation published on December 7 that the high international oil price might have the following three consequences: first, rise in pressure on global inflation, which will lead to continued retrenchment of monetary policies of the United States and other countries, thereby slowing down the pace of world economic growth in 2001; second, a possible slowdown of economic growth in East Asian countries, including Japan, which depend largely on imported crude oil and fluctuation of stock and foreign currency markets and contraction of investment and consumption demand; high oil price and the resultant price hikes of related products, plus factors of price hikes of some commodities, will likely result in rapid rise of domestic price and consequently a rise in the cost of production and operation of export commodities.

The report says that these possibilities will, to some extent, affect China's export competitiveness and restrain the growth of China's import and export trade.

(People's Daily 12/11/2000)