"Besides further exposing his pro-independence attempt, Chen's threat will only trigger new tensions across the Taiwan Straits and will do nothing but undermine cross-Straits ties,” said Xu Shiquan, director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

He said the leader's move also goes against the aspirations of the Taiwan mainstream for stability, development and prosperity.

The researcher made the comments following Chen's remarks Tuesday that the island should go its own way. It was Chen's third such comment in recent days.

Said Chen, also chairman of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan, at a party meeting: "Because we've advocated that Taiwan should walk down its own correct road, we've been able to win the people's trust.”

The leader has pledged to take the party's 1999 resolution on Taiwan's future as the "top guiding principle” for dealing with cross-Straits ties.

The 1999 resolution stipulates that any altering of the island's status must be decided through a referendum by all residents on the island.

The party platform approved in 1991 aims to establish an independent Taiwan republic and enforce a new constitution.

Chen also said on Monday that Taipei had been sincere about easing the cross-Straits stalemate, but that its goodwill has not been appreciated by Beijing.

So "we must think seriously if we have to go down our own road, our own Taiwan road, towards Taiwan's future,” Chen told a group of business leaders.

His controversial remarks echoed his warning in a televised speech last week that if Beijing does not reciprocate his goodwill, the Taiwanese people will "walk down our own Taiwanese road.”

Although Chen avoided using the politically charged word "independence,” his comments were widely regarded to be a veiled threat.

Xu said that Chen's latest move following his takeover of the DPP chairmanship demonstrates that he is more tightly bound by its pro-independence party platform and has thus toughened his mainland policy.

"But the Chinese government will never allow Taiwan to move towards independence no matter what Chen says or does,” Xu said. "Chen has to recognize clearly that Beijing has little maneuvering room and will never make any compromise on the issue of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

On Monday, Chen also urged Taiwanese businessmen to diversify their investments and consider Southeast Asia as a market and the mainland just one part of the global market.

He said Taiwan's security cannot be compromised by business interests.

"We cannot rely too heavily on trade with the mainland,” Chen said. "Of course, doing business is good. But 'national' security is our priority, and the people's interests will forever come first.”

Fan Xizhou, a Taiwan Research Institute professor at Xiamen University, said Chen is repeating the "southbound” policy introduced by his predecessor, Lee Teng-hui.

"Inheriting Lee's doomed policy can only aggravate the island's existing economic hardship by setting artificial hurdles to normal business operation," he said.

The professor accused Chen of hindering cross-Straits economic cooperation under the disguise of protecting public interests.

"He has deliberately ignored the fact that it is an inevitable trend for Taiwan to strengthen its economic ties with the mainland and better integrate the island with the huge mainland market rather than keep its distance,” Fan said.

Xu said Chen's flip-flopping mainland policy is derived from his adherence to separatism enshrined in the party platform.

On the other hand, Chen may also be using his harsh attitude towards the mainland as a voting strategy to woo die-hard pro-independence voters so as to win votes for DPP candidates in the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections at year's end, he said.

The researcher said the DPP has long been used to taking advantage of populism in elections by triggering ethnic strife and straining cross-Straits ties.

"But if the DPP wants to play the political gimmick time and again, it almost equals drinking poison to quench the thirst, dooming the party to a road of self-destruction,” Xu said.

(China Daily July 31, 2002)