Gold trading continued to rise at a high rate in the first half of this year, reflecting the sustained growth of China's gold market since domestic trade was deregulated in 2001.

In the first five months of this year, gold traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose by 36.59 percent over the same period of last year to reach 466.77 tons, the exchange announced on its website last Wednesday. The equivalent transaction value was 71.82 billion yuan (US$8.98 billion), up 83.25 percent year-on-year.

But current turnover on the domestic exchange market is too small to influence the international markets. Daily average turnover on the Shanghai market is less than 1 percent of that in London. Most of the gold contracts traded in developed exchange markets are futures and options whereas the contracts traded on the Shanghai exchange are limited to spot and spot with deferred payments.

"The domestic spot gold price is expected to closely follow international prices in the months ahead and the gap between the two should further narrow," said Xu Zhipeng, a gold analyst with the Shanghai Gold Coin Investment Co.

"Only from October to next January, when domestic demand for gold will peak, will the domestic gold price deviate a little bit away from the international price. At most other times, it simply follows the international trend," added Xu.

Price movements on the domestic exchange were more synchronized to the international price, the exchange noted. The price of gold with the most purity Au99.99, for instance, traded at around 170 yuan (US$21) per gram in May when international gold prices hit a 25-year high at around US$700 per troy ounce (31 grams). It corrected downward when the international price dropped to around US$550 by mid-June.

Demand for gold usually peaks at year's end in China, mainly as a result of jewellery makers, pushing up the domestic gold price. But in recent years there has been less deviation from the international price during the peak season as domestic supply and demand for gold in China becomes more balanced, said analysts.

China's import of gold has declined since the turn of the century to only 32 tons in 2003, while over 80 percent that year came from domestic mines, according to a gold market report jointly conducted by the World Gold Council, GFMS Ltd and China Financial Services.

China's gold output last year reached a record 220.5 metric tons, making China the world's fourth-biggest gold producer after South Africa, the United States and Australia.

Output this year is set to rise by around 10 percent as the international gold price is expected to hover high and drive up gold production domestically, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which oversees China's gold market.

The NDRC announced earlier that gold production in the first five months of the year rose by 12.44 percent to reach 88.8 tons, while profit rose by 58.31 percent to 2.11 billion yuan (US$264 million).

(China Daily July 18, 2006)